{"product_id":"expected-return","title":"Expected Return Calculator","description":"\u003cstyle\u003e\n.er-calculator {\n  --ink: #0f172a;\n  --muted: #475569;\n  --border: #e2e8f0;\n  --surface: #ffffff;\n  --tint: #f8fafc;\n  --primary: #1d4ed8;\n  --accent: #c2410c;\n  --accent-hover: #9a3412;\n  --chart-1: #1e40af;\n  --chart-2: #0d9488;\n  --chart-3: #7c3aed;\n  --chart-4: #be185d;\n  --chart-5: #334155;\n  color: var(--ink);\n  background: var(--surface);\n  border: 1px solid var(--border);\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  box-shadow: 0 1px 2px rgba(15, 23, 42, .06);\n  container: ercalc \/ inline-size;\n  font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif;\n  font-size: 15px;\n  line-height: 1.55;\n  margin: 0 auto;\n  max-width: 1200px;\n  overflow-wrap: anywhere;\n  padding: 24px;\n  width: 100%;\n}\n.er-calculator,\n.er-calculator *,\n.er-calculator *::before,\n.er-calculator *::after {\n  box-sizing: border-box;\n}\n.er-calculator * {\n  min-width: 0;\n}\n.er-calculator h2,\n.er-calculator h3,\n.er-calculator p {\n  margin-top: 0;\n}\n.er-calculator h2 {\n  font-size: 24px;\n  font-weight: 700;\n  line-height: 1.25;\n  margin-bottom: 8px;\n}\n.er-calculator h3 {\n  font-size: 18px;\n  font-weight: 650;\n  line-height: 1.35;\n  margin-bottom: 12px;\n}\n.er-calculator a {\n  color: var(--primary);\n  text-decoration-thickness: 1px;\n  text-underline-offset: 2px;\n}\n.er-calculator a:hover {\n  text-decoration-thickness: 2px;\n}\n.er-calculator button,\n.er-calculator input,\n.er-calculator select {\n  font: inherit;\n}\n.er-calculator button,\n.er-calculator input,\n.er-calculator select {\n  min-height: 44px;\n}\n.er-calculator button {\n  cursor: pointer;\n}\n.er-calculator button:focus-visible,\n.er-calculator input:focus-visible,\n.er-calculator select:focus-visible,\n.er-calculator a:focus-visible,\n.er-calculator summary:focus-visible {\n  outline: 3px solid rgba(29, 78, 216, .35);\n  outline-offset: 2px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-header {\n  border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);\n  padding-bottom: 16px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-subtitle {\n  color: var(--muted);\n  margin-bottom: 16px;\n  max-width: 780px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-pills {\n  display: flex;\n  flex-wrap: wrap;\n  gap: 8px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-pill {\n  align-items: center;\n  background: var(--tint);\n  border: 1px solid var(--border);\n  border-radius: 999px;\n  color: var(--muted);\n  display: inline-flex;\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 500;\n  gap: 6px;\n  line-height: 1.3;\n  padding: 6px 10px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-pill strong {\n  color: var(--ink);\n  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;\n  font-weight: 700;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-toolbar {\n  display: flex;\n  flex-wrap: wrap;\n  gap: 8px;\n  padding: 16px 0;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-button {\n  align-items: center;\n  border: 1px solid var(--border);\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  display: inline-flex;\n  font-size: 15px;\n  font-weight: 650;\n  gap: 10px;\n  justify-content: center;\n  line-height: 1.2;\n  padding: 12px 18px;\n  transition: background-color .15s ease, border-color .15s ease, box-shadow .15s ease, transform .15s ease;\n  white-space: nowrap;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-button:hover {\n  box-shadow: 0 2px 5px rgba(15, 23, 42, .12);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-button:active {\n  transform: translateY(1px);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-download {\n  background: var(--accent);\n  border-color: var(--accent);\n  color: #ffffff;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-download:hover,\n.er-calculator .er-download:active {\n  background: var(--accent-hover);\n  border-color: var(--accent-hover);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-reset,\n.er-calculator .er-add {\n  background: var(--surface);\n  color: var(--ink);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-reset:hover,\n.er-calculator .er-add:hover {\n  background: var(--tint);\n  border-color: #cbd5e1;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-icon {\n  display: inline-block;\n  flex: 0 0 auto;\n  height: 18px;\n  width: 18px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-workspace {\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 24px;\n  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-panel,\n.er-calculator .er-chart-card,\n.er-calculator .er-table-card,\n.er-calculator .er-education {\n  background: var(--surface);\n  border: 1px solid var(--border);\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  padding: 20px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-panel-heading {\n  align-items: start;\n  display: flex;\n  gap: 12px;\n  justify-content: space-between;\n  margin-bottom: 16px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-panel-heading p {\n  color: var(--muted);\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 500;\n  margin-bottom: 0;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-scenarios {\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 12px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-scenario-row {\n  background: var(--tint);\n  border: 1px solid var(--border);\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 12px;\n  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr);\n  padding: 16px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-scenario-head {\n  align-items: center;\n  display: flex;\n  gap: 12px;\n  justify-content: space-between;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-scenario-title {\n  font-size: 14px;\n  font-weight: 700;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-remove {\n  align-items: center;\n  background: transparent;\n  border: 1px solid #cbd5e1;\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  color: #334155;\n  display: inline-flex;\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  justify-content: center;\n  min-height: 44px;\n  padding: 8px 10px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-remove:hover {\n  background: #ffffff;\n  border-color: #94a3b8;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-field-grid {\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 12px;\n  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-field {\n  display: flex;\n  flex-direction: column;\n  gap: 6px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-field label {\n  color: var(--ink);\n  font-size: 14px;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  line-height: 1.35;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-field input {\n  background: #ffffff;\n  border: 1px solid #cbd5e1;\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  color: var(--ink);\n  font-size: 15px;\n  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;\n  padding: 10px 12px;\n  width: 100%;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-field input:hover {\n  border-color: #94a3b8;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-field input[aria-invalid=\"true\"] {\n  border-color: #b91c1c;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-helper,\n.er-calculator .er-validation,\n.er-calculator .er-small-note {\n  color: var(--muted);\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 500;\n  line-height: 1.45;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-validation {\n  background: #fef2f2;\n  border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  color: #991b1b;\n  margin-top: 12px;\n  padding: 10px 12px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-validation[hidden] {\n  display: none;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-add-wrap {\n  display: flex;\n  margin-top: 12px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-results-grid {\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 12px;\n  grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));\n}\n.er-calculator .er-result-card {\n  background: var(--tint);\n  border: 1px solid var(--border);\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  padding: 16px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-result-card.er-primary-result {\n  background: #eff6ff;\n  border-color: #bfdbfe;\n  grid-column: 1 \/ -1;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-result-label {\n  color: var(--muted);\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  line-height: 1.35;\n  margin-bottom: 6px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-result-value {\n  color: var(--ink);\n  font-size: 20px;\n  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;\n  font-weight: 700;\n  line-height: 1.15;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-primary-result .er-result-value {\n  font-size: 30px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-result-detail {\n  color: var(--muted);\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 500;\n  margin-bottom: 0;\n  margin-top: 8px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-live {\n  background: #f0fdf4;\n  border: 1px solid #bbf7d0;\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  color: #166534;\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  margin-top: 16px;\n  padding: 10px 12px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-section-stack {\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 24px;\n  margin-top: 24px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-chart-intro {\n  color: var(--muted);\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 500;\n  margin-bottom: 16px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-chart-cluster {\n  align-items: center;\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 20px;\n  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr);\n  justify-content: center;\n  margin: 0 auto;\n  max-width: 900px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-plot-wrap {\n  align-items: center;\n  display: flex;\n  justify-content: center;\n  min-height: 0;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-chart-svg {\n  display: block;\n  height: auto;\n  max-height: 340px;\n  max-width: 620px;\n  overflow: visible;\n  width: 100%;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-chart-empty {\n  align-items: center;\n  background: var(--tint);\n  border: 1px dashed #cbd5e1;\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  color: var(--muted);\n  display: flex;\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  justify-content: center;\n  min-height: 110px;\n  padding: 16px;\n  text-align: center;\n  width: 100%;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-chart-empty[hidden],\n.er-calculator .er-chart-svg[hidden] {\n  display: none;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-legend {\n  align-content: start;\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 10px;\n  justify-content: start;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-legend-title {\n  color: var(--ink);\n  font-size: 14px;\n  font-weight: 700;\n  margin-bottom: 2px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-legend-row {\n  align-items: center;\n  display: grid;\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 500;\n  gap: 8px 12px;\n  grid-template-columns: 12px auto auto;\n  justify-content: start;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-legend-swatch {\n  border-radius: 3px;\n  height: 12px;\n  width: 12px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-legend-name {\n  color: var(--ink);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-legend-value {\n  color: var(--muted);\n  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;\n  white-space: nowrap;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-chart-data-wrap,\n.er-calculator .er-table-overflow {\n  margin-top: 20px;\n  overflow-x: auto;\n  width: 100%;\n}\n.er-calculator table {\n  border-collapse: collapse;\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;\n  min-width: 620px;\n  width: 100%;\n}\n.er-calculator th,\n.er-calculator td {\n  border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);\n  padding: 10px 12px;\n  text-align: right;\n  vertical-align: middle;\n}\n.er-calculator th:first-child,\n.er-calculator td:first-child {\n  text-align: left;\n}\n.er-calculator th {\n  background: #e2e8f0;\n  color: var(--ink);\n  font-weight: 700;\n  white-space: nowrap;\n}\n.er-calculator tbody tr:hover {\n  background: var(--tint);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-chart-callout,\n.er-calculator .er-table-note {\n  background: var(--tint);\n  border: 1px solid var(--border);\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  color: var(--muted);\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 500;\n  line-height: 1.5;\n  margin-top: 16px;\n  padding: 10px 12px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-safe-stack .er-chart-cluster {\n  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr);\n  row-gap: 24px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-safe-stack .er-legend {\n  justify-self: center;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-safe-stack .er-chart-callout {\n  margin-top: 20px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-safe-table-stack .er-table-overflow {\n  height: auto;\n  max-height: none;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-safe-table-stack .er-table-note {\n  margin-top: 20px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-table-heading {\n  align-items: start;\n  display: flex;\n  flex-wrap: wrap;\n  gap: 12px;\n  justify-content: space-between;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-table-heading p {\n  color: var(--muted);\n  font-size: 13px;\n  font-weight: 500;\n  margin-bottom: 0;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-education {\n  background: var(--tint);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-education-grid {\n  display: grid;\n  gap: 24px;\n  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr);\n}\n.er-calculator .er-education-section {\n  background: var(--surface);\n  border: 1px solid var(--border);\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  padding: 20px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-education-section p:last-child,\n.er-calculator .er-education-section ul:last-child {\n  margin-bottom: 0;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-education-section ul {\n  margin-top: 0;\n  padding-left: 20px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-education-section li + li {\n  margin-top: 8px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-formula {\n  background: #eff6ff;\n  border-left: 4px solid var(--primary);\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;\n  margin: 12px 0;\n  padding: 12px 14px;\n}\n.er-calculator .er-visually-hidden {\n  border: 0;\n  clip: rect(0 0 0 0);\n  clip-path: inset(50%);\n  height: 1px;\n  margin: -1px;\n  overflow: hidden;\n  padding: 0;\n  position: absolute;\n  white-space: nowrap;\n  width: 1px;\n}\n@container ercalc (min-width: 560px) {\n  .er-calculator .er-field-grid {\n    grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr));\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-scenario-row {\n    grid-template-columns: 120px minmax(0, 1fr);\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-scenario-head {\n    align-content: start;\n    align-items: flex-start;\n    flex-direction: column;\n    justify-content: flex-start;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-results-grid {\n    grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));\n  }\n}\n@container ercalc (min-width: 640px) {\n  .er-calculator .er-chart-cluster {\n    grid-template-columns: minmax(360px, 620px) max-content;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-education-grid {\n    grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));\n  }\n}\n@container ercalc (min-width: 900px) {\n  .er-calculator .er-workspace {\n    grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1.15fr) minmax(320px, .85fr);\n  }\n}\n@container ercalc (max-width: 639px) {\n  .er-calculator {\n    padding: 16px;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-panel,\n  .er-calculator .er-chart-card,\n  .er-calculator .er-table-card,\n  .er-calculator .er-education {\n    padding: 16px;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-chart-cluster {\n    row-gap: 20px;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-legend {\n    justify-self: center;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-chart-callout,\n  .er-calculator .er-table-note {\n    margin-top: 16px;\n  }\n}\n@container ercalc (max-width: 420px) {\n  .er-calculator .er-toolbar {\n    align-items: stretch;\n    flex-direction: column;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-button {\n    width: 100%;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-results-grid {\n    grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr);\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-primary-result {\n    grid-column: auto;\n  }\n  .er-calculator .er-primary-result .er-result-value {\n    font-size: 26px;\n  }\n}\n\u003c\/style\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"er-calculator\" data-calculator-root\u003e\n  \u003cheader class=\"er-header\"\u003e\n    \u003ch2\u003eExpected Return Calculator\u003c\/h2\u003e\n    \u003cp class=\"er-subtitle\"\u003eCompare two investments across probability-weighted scenarios, including expected return, variance, standard deviation, and scenario-level contributions.\u003c\/p\u003e\n    \u003cdiv class=\"er-pills\" aria-label=\"Live calculation summary\"\u003e\n      \u003cspan class=\"er-pill\"\u003eProbability total \u003cstrong data-er-pill-probability\u003e100.00%\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/span\u003e\n      \u003cspan class=\"er-pill\"\u003eComplete scenarios \u003cstrong data-er-pill-count\u003e3\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/span\u003e\n      \u003cspan class=\"er-pill\"\u003eHigher expected return \u003cstrong data-er-pill-return\u003eStock B\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/span\u003e\n      \u003cspan class=\"er-pill\"\u003eLower volatility \u003cstrong data-er-pill-risk\u003eStock A\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/span\u003e\n    \u003c\/div\u003e\n  \u003c\/header\u003e\n\n  \u003cdiv class=\"er-toolbar\" aria-label=\"Calculator actions\"\u003e\n    \u003cbutton class=\"er-button er-download\" type=\"button\" data-er-download\u003e\n      \u003csvg class=\"er-icon\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\u003e\u003cpath d=\"M12 3v11m0 0 4-4m-4 4-4-4M5 16v3h14v-3\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\u003e\u003c\/path\u003e\u003c\/svg\u003e\n      \u003cspan\u003eDownload Excel\u003c\/span\u003e\n    \u003c\/button\u003e\n    \u003cbutton class=\"er-button er-reset\" type=\"button\" data-er-reset\u003e\n      \u003csvg class=\"er-icon\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\u003e\u003cpath d=\"M4 4v6h6M20 20v-6h-6M5.6 15A7 7 0 0 0 18 17M18.4 9A7 7 0 0 0 6 7\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\u003e\u003c\/path\u003e\u003c\/svg\u003e\n      \u003cspan\u003eReset\u003c\/span\u003e\n    \u003c\/button\u003e\n  \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n  \u003cdiv class=\"er-workspace\"\u003e\n    \u003csection class=\"er-panel\" aria-labelledby=\"er-inputs-heading\"\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-panel-heading\"\u003e\n        \u003cdiv\u003e\n          \u003ch3 id=\"er-inputs-heading\"\u003eScenario assumptions\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eEnter a probability and the return for each stock. Probabilities must total 100%.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-scenarios\" data-er-scenarios\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-add-wrap\"\u003e\n        \u003cbutton class=\"er-button er-add\" type=\"button\" data-er-add\u003e+ Add scenario\u003c\/button\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-validation\" data-er-validation hidden\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n    \u003c\/section\u003e\n\n    \u003csection class=\"er-panel\" aria-labelledby=\"er-results-heading\"\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-panel-heading\"\u003e\n        \u003cdiv\u003e\n          \u003ch3 id=\"er-results-heading\"\u003eLive results\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eReturns are probability-weighted. Risk is measured from the same scenario distribution.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-results-grid\"\u003e\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-result-card er-primary-result\"\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-label\"\u003eExpected return comparison\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-value\" data-er-primary\u003eStock B +1.90 pp\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp class=\"er-result-detail\" data-er-primary-detail\u003eStock B has the higher expected return.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-result-card\"\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-label\"\u003eStock A expected return\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-value\" data-er-a-expected\u003e8.50%\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp class=\"er-result-detail\"\u003eProbability-weighted average\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-result-card\"\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-label\"\u003eStock B expected return\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-value\" data-er-b-expected\u003e10.40%\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp class=\"er-result-detail\"\u003eProbability-weighted average\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-result-card\"\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-label\"\u003eStock A standard deviation\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-value\" data-er-a-sd\u003e10.50%\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp class=\"er-result-detail\" data-er-a-variance\u003eVariance: 0.0110\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-result-card\"\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-label\"\u003eStock B standard deviation\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-value\" data-er-b-sd\u003e16.67%\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp class=\"er-result-detail\" data-er-b-variance\u003eVariance: 0.0278\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-result-card\"\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-label\"\u003eStock A return range\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-value\" data-er-a-range\u003e30.00 pp\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp class=\"er-result-detail\" data-er-a-minmax\u003e-5.00% to 25.00%\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-result-card\"\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-label\"\u003eStock B return range\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-result-value\" data-er-b-range\u003e47.00 pp\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp class=\"er-result-detail\" data-er-b-minmax\u003e-12.00% to 35.00%\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-live\" aria-live=\"polite\" aria-atomic=\"true\" data-er-live\u003eStock B leads expected return by 1.90 percentage points; Stock A has lower volatility.\u003c\/div\u003e\n    \u003c\/section\u003e\n  \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n  \u003cdiv class=\"er-section-stack\"\u003e\n    \u003csection class=\"er-chart-card\" data-er-chart-card aria-labelledby=\"er-chart-heading\"\u003e\n      \u003ch3 id=\"er-chart-heading\"\u003eReturn and volatility comparison\u003c\/h3\u003e\n      \u003cp class=\"er-chart-intro\" data-er-chart-intro\u003eThe chart compares each stock’s expected return with its standard deviation using the current scenario assumptions.\u003c\/p\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-chart-cluster\"\u003e\n        \u003cdiv class=\"er-plot-wrap\" data-er-plot-wrap\u003e\n          \u003csvg class=\"er-chart-svg\" data-er-chart-svg role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"er-chart-svg-title er-chart-svg-desc\" viewbox=\"0 0 560 300\" preserveaspectratio=\"xMidYMid meet\"\u003e\n            \u003ctitle id=\"er-chart-svg-title\"\u003eExpected return and volatility comparison\u003c\/title\u003e\n            \u003cdesc id=\"er-chart-svg-desc\" data-er-chart-desc\u003eStock A expected return 8.50% and volatility 10.50%. Stock B expected return 10.40% and volatility 16.67%.\u003c\/desc\u003e\n          \u003c\/svg\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-chart-empty\" data-er-chart-empty hidden\u003eEnter complete scenarios totaling 100% to draw the comparison chart.\u003c\/div\u003e\n        \u003c\/div\u003e\n        \u003cdiv class=\"er-legend\" data-er-legend aria-label=\"Chart legend\"\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-chart-data-wrap\"\u003e\n        \u003ctable aria-label=\"Chart values\"\u003e\n          \u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eInvestment\u003c\/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eExpected return\u003c\/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eStandard deviation\u003c\/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eVariance\u003c\/th\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/thead\u003e\n          \u003ctbody data-er-chart-table\u003e\u003c\/tbody\u003e\n        \u003c\/table\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-chart-callout\" data-er-chart-callout\u003eExpected return describes the weighted average outcome; standard deviation indicates how widely scenario returns vary around that average.\u003c\/div\u003e\n    \u003c\/section\u003e\n\n    \u003csection class=\"er-table-card\" data-er-table-card aria-labelledby=\"er-detail-heading\"\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-table-heading\"\u003e\n        \u003cdiv\u003e\n          \u003ch3 id=\"er-detail-heading\"\u003eScenario contribution detail\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eEach contribution equals probability multiplied by the scenario return.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-table-overflow\" data-er-table-overflow\u003e\n        \u003ctable aria-label=\"Expected return scenario details\"\u003e\n          \u003cthead\u003e\n            \u003ctr\u003e\n              \u003cth\u003eScenario\u003c\/th\u003e\n              \u003cth\u003eProbability\u003c\/th\u003e\n              \u003cth\u003eStock A return\u003c\/th\u003e\n              \u003cth\u003eStock A contribution\u003c\/th\u003e\n              \u003cth\u003eStock B return\u003c\/th\u003e\n              \u003cth\u003eStock B contribution\u003c\/th\u003e\n            \u003c\/tr\u003e\n          \u003c\/thead\u003e\n          \u003ctbody data-er-detail-table\u003e\u003c\/tbody\u003e\n          \u003ctfoot data-er-detail-foot\u003e\u003c\/tfoot\u003e\n        \u003c\/table\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-table-note\" data-er-table-note\u003eThe contribution columns cross-foot to each stock’s expected return. Variance and standard deviation use the same probabilities but measure squared deviations from the expected return.\u003c\/div\u003e\n    \u003c\/section\u003e\n\n    \u003csection class=\"er-education\" aria-labelledby=\"er-education-heading\"\u003e\n      \u003ch2 id=\"er-education-heading\"\u003eHow to use and interpret the expected return model\u003c\/h2\u003e\n      \u003cdiv class=\"er-education-grid\"\u003e\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-education-section\"\u003e\n          \u003ch3\u003eWhat this calculator estimates\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eExpected return is the probability-weighted average of several possible returns. It is not a forecast of one guaranteed outcome. Instead, it condenses a scenario distribution into a single average that can help compare investments on a consistent basis. This calculator evaluates two stocks or strategies side by side and also measures variance and standard deviation, which describe how dispersed the possible returns are around the expected return.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eThe model is useful for structured scenario analysis: a downside case, a base case, an upside case, and any additional outcomes you consider material. For general investor education about uncertainty, review the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s explanation of \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/www.investor.gov\/introduction-investing\/investing-basics\/what-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"\u003einvestment risk\u003c\/a\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-formula\"\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eExpected return:\u003c\/strong\u003e E(r) = Σ pᵢ × rᵢ\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eHere, pᵢ is the probability of scenario i expressed as a decimal, and rᵢ is the return in that scenario. Probabilities must cover the full outcome set and therefore total 100%.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-education-section\"\u003e\n          \u003ch3\u003eHow to enter each scenario\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eProbability\u003c\/strong\u003e is the estimated likelihood of the scenario. Enter it as a percentage from 0% to 100%. This field is required for every completed row, and the completed probabilities must total exactly 100% within normal rounding tolerance. Higher probability gives that scenario more influence over expected return and risk. A common mistake is entering decimal form such as 0.30 when 30% is intended.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStock A return\u003c\/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eStock B return\u003c\/strong\u003e are the gains or losses expected if that scenario occurs. Enter positive percentages for gains and negative percentages for losses. These fields are required in every completed row. There is no need to force both stocks to have the same sign; one investment may gain while the other loses in the same market environment.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eUse the Add scenario button for another outcome. A new blank row also appears automatically after the final row is completed. Remove rows that no longer belong in the distribution. Reset clears the current scenario set to a neutral blank row rather than reloading the example.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-education-section\"\u003e\n          \u003ch3\u003eHow the risk calculations work\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eVariance measures the weighted average squared distance between each scenario return and the expected return. Squaring prevents positive and negative deviations from cancelling each other. The calculator expresses variance in decimal-return units, so it may look small even when the percentage swings are meaningful.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cdiv class=\"er-formula\"\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eVariance:\u003c\/strong\u003e Var(r) = Σ pᵢ × (rᵢ − E(r))²\u003cbr\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStandard deviation:\u003c\/strong\u003e SD(r) = √Var(r)\u003c\/div\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eStandard deviation converts variance back into return units, making it easier to compare with expected return. A higher standard deviation means the modeled outcomes are more spread out. It does not identify whether the uncertainty comes primarily from downside or upside scenarios, and it does not capture risks omitted from the scenario set. FINRA provides additional context on the relationship between \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/www.finra.org\/investors\/investing\/investing-basics\/risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"\u003erisk and return\u003c\/a\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-education-section\"\u003e\n          \u003ch3\u003eHow to read every result\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eExpected return\u003c\/strong\u003e is the weighted average for each stock. A higher value may be attractive, but it should be considered together with risk. A zero value means gains and losses offset on a weighted basis; a negative value means the modeled distribution has an expected loss.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStandard deviation\u003c\/strong\u003e shows dispersion around expected return. Lower is more stable under the entered scenarios, while higher indicates a wider range of possible outcomes. \u003cstrong\u003eVariance\u003c\/strong\u003e is the squared form used to compute standard deviation. \u003cstrong\u003eReturn range\u003c\/strong\u003e is the difference between the highest and lowest entered return; it is intuitive but ignores probability, so it should not replace standard deviation.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eThe comparison headline reports the expected-return gap in percentage points. The chart puts expected return and standard deviation on the same percentage scale. The detail table shows each scenario’s direct contribution, allowing you to verify which outcomes drive the weighted average.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-education-section\"\u003e\n          \u003ch3\u003eHow assumption changes affect the output\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eIncreasing the probability of a high-return scenario raises expected return, while increasing the probability of a low-return scenario lowers it. Volatility may rise or fall depending on how far the reweighted scenario is from the new average. Moving an extreme outcome farther from the center usually increases variance even if its probability is modest.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eScenario analysis is most informative when probabilities are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Avoid overlapping cases, mixing time horizons, or combining nominal and real returns in the same distribution. Use the same measurement period for both investments. For example, compare annual returns with annual returns rather than annual returns for one stock and monthly returns for the other.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eChanging many assumptions simultaneously can obscure the driver of the result. A disciplined approach is to change one probability or return at a time, observe the effect, then test a coherent alternate scenario set.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n\n        \u003carticle class=\"er-education-section\"\u003e\n          \u003ch3\u003eBenefits, limits, and common mistakes\u003c\/h3\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eThe main benefit is transparency: every result can be traced to explicit outcomes and probabilities. The main limitation is model risk. Expected return depends entirely on the completeness and quality of those assumptions, and historical patterns may not repeat. Standard deviation also treats upside and downside dispersion symmetrically.\u003c\/p\u003e\n          \u003cul\u003e\n            \u003cli\u003eDo not interpret expected return as a promised future return.\u003c\/li\u003e\n            \u003cli\u003eDo not omit plausible adverse scenarios merely to improve the average.\u003c\/li\u003e\n            \u003cli\u003eDo not compare distributions built for different time periods.\u003c\/li\u003e\n            \u003cli\u003eDo not assume the higher-return stock is automatically preferable.\u003c\/li\u003e\n            \u003cli\u003eDo not rely on range alone when probabilities differ materially.\u003c\/li\u003e\n          \u003c\/ul\u003e\n          \u003cp\u003eDiversification can change portfolio-level risk because investments may not move together. The SEC’s overview of \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/www.investor.gov\/introduction-investing\/investing-basics\/glossary\/diversification\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"\u003ediversification\u003c\/a\u003e explains why evaluating assets individually is only one part of portfolio analysis. This calculator is educational and does not provide personalized investment advice.\u003c\/p\u003e\n        \u003c\/article\u003e\n      \u003c\/div\u003e\n    \u003c\/section\u003e\n  \u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"FinancialModelsLab","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49909480128755,"sku":"expected-return","price":0.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0522\/6191\/2762\/files\/expected-return.webp?v=1783935363","url":"https:\/\/financialmodelslab.com\/products\/expected-return","provider":"Financial Models Lab","version":"1.0","type":"link"}