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Key Takeaways
- The initial capital expenditure (CAPEX) required to launch this high-volume concept is precisely $76,000.
- With a projected 83% contribution margin, the business model achieves operational breakeven in just three months (March 2026).
- The financial forecast confirms a rapid payback period of 13 months, supported by a Year 1 EBITDA projection of $101,000.
- Achieving profitability requires consistently covering $18,105 in monthly fixed overhead, which is heavily weighted toward $14,375 in Year 1 labor costs.
Step 1 : Define Core Concept
Concept Alignment
Defining your target customer and core menu mix is the foundation for hitting revenue targets. You must know who you serve—like remote professionals or local residents—to justify the required spend. If 45% of your sales volume is centered on high-value items like Shawarma Wraps, this directly supports your $15-$18 Average Order Value (AOV) goal.
This initial definition dictates everything from staffing levels to ingredient sourcing, so get it locked down early. A fuzzy customer means a fuzzy price point, and fuzzy pricing sinks profitability fast.
AOV Price Anchoring
To reliably achieve the $15-$18 AOV, structure your menu around those anchor items. If the 45% Shawarma Wraps sell for $17.00, you need add-ons to pull the average up or down slightly. Consider bundling the wrap with a premium beverage or side dish.
If your typical transaction is just one wrap, you'll defintely miss the $18 ceiling. Focus marketing spend specifically on capturing the full basket size, not just the single item sale.
Step 2 : Calculate Initial Capital
Funding the Build
Getting the initial cash right stops you from stalling before opening day. This is your Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) calculation—the one-time costs to get the doors open for The Daily Table. You need to secure the full $76,000 before you can start serving those first covers. If you underestimate this, you’ll be scrambling for emergency loans mid-build.
Tallying Setup Costs
Here’s the quick math on where that $76,000 goes. The equipment is heavy. You’re looking at $15,000 just for the rotisserie necessary for your menu focus. The physical space needs $20,000 for the build-out. The remaining $41,000 covers other necessary assets, like initial inventory and working capital float. Defintely confirm these vendor quotes now.
Step 3 : Model Operating Expenses
Fixed Cost Baseline
Fixed overhead sets your baseline burn rate before any sales come in. We must lock down the $18,105 monthly fixed operating expense. A major driver here is personnel costs, specifically $14,375 allocated to support 35 full-time employees (FTEs) across management and kitchen roles. This number is your starting line for profitability.
Variable Cost Control
Variable costs scale directly with volume, like ingredients and supplies. For this concept, we estimate total variable costs run at 17% of revenue. This low percentage suggests strong potential gross margins, assuming food cost control remains tight. If you can keep costs this low, defintely the path to profit is clearer.
Step 4 : Forecast Revenue & Volume
Volume Projection Core
Forecasting customer volume is the bedrock of operational planning. You must translate desired revenue into daily customer counts, or covers, segmented by day type. If you project 50 covers on Monday and 120 on Saturday in 2026, you establish the necessary scale for inventory purchasing and labor scheduling. This segmentation is defintely critical for managing food waste and service quality.
The goal is mapping these daily flows against your Average Order Value (AOV) to validate the $378k average monthly revenue target. A failure to hit the higher weekend volume means you won't recover the lower weekday performance. This step proves if your operating assumptions match the financial goals.
Revenue Calculation Check
To hit $378k average monthly revenue, you must rigorously apply your AOV to the projected flow. Using the $15 Midweek AOV helps bridge the gap between door traffic and actual sales receipts. Still, the daily variation (low volume Monday vs. high volume Saturday) is where most projections fail to align with reality.
Here’s the quick math: If you use $15 AOV and project covers that average out to support $378k monthly, you need roughly 840 covers per week if the AOV held steady at $15 across 30 days. You need to confirm that your 50/120 daily projections, when weighted across 30 days, actually yield that volume or that your weekend AOV is much higher.
Step 5 : Determine Breakeven Point
Breakeven Volume
You must know exactly how many customers you need daily just to cover your fixed costs. This isn't profit; it's survival. Your monthly fixed overhead sits at $18,105. We use the 17% variable cost rate to determine contribution margin. This means 83% of every dollar taken in goes toward covering those fixed expenses first.
If you use the $15 midweek Average Order Value (AOV), your contribution per customer is $12.45 ($15 0.83). Hitting breakeven requires covering $18,105 monthly, which translates to roughly 44 daily covers. That's the number you need to hit consistently.
Confirming the Timeline
The target of 44 daily covers is the critical operational metric right now. You must confirm this volume is achievable within the first three months of operation, targeting March 2026 for breakeven achievement. If your staffing plan requires 35 FTEs from day one, that fixed cost base is heavy. You defintely need volume fast.
To manage this, focus intensely on weekday lunch traffic where the $15 AOV applies. Every cover above 44 contributes directly to profit. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises, slowing down volume attainment.
Step 6 : Develop Staffing Plan
Staffing Allocation
Mapping 35 FTEs across Manager, Cook, Staff, and Prep roles dictates service quality from morning coffee to late dinner. This initial headcount must support projected volume, like the 50 to 120 daily covers seen in the 2026 forecast. Misaligning these roles with peak operational hours directly inflates the $14,375 monthly personnel cost built into fixed overhead. You need tight scheduling now.
The key is matching labor supply to demand spikes, especially during brunch and dinner service. If you over-schedule mid-afternoon lulls, that labor cost eats profit fast. Defintely track utilization rates weekly. It’s the only way to control that major fixed expense.
2030 Headcount Goal
Reaching a target of only 10 FTEs by 2030 implies massive efficiency gains are baked into the long-term plan. You must invest in systems today that allow fewer people to handle higher volume. Cross-train Staff and Prep roles to cover multiple dayparts effectively.
If covers grow three times over seven years, your labor hours should not scale linearly. Focus on technology that automates ordering or inventory to keep headcount low. This efficiency is how you protect the $18,105 fixed overhead base as revenue scales.
Step 7 : Create 3-Year P&L
P&L Growth Path
The 3-Year P&L shows investors the entrire path to profitability. It proves you can cover initial capital costs quickly. Hitting the 13-month payback target relies entirely on scaling EBITDA fast. This projection validates the entire capital ask for the business.
You need to clearly map revenue growth against the fixed $18,105 monthly overhead. This demonstrates that volume increases efficiently translate to bottom-line results, which is what lenders focus on first.
Hitting Targets
You must show EBITDA rising from $101k in Year 1 to $397k in Year 2. Year 3 projects $557k. This rapid scaling confirms the investment thesis.
This growth depends on maintaining low variable costs, which are modeled at just 17%. Keep daily covers consistently above the 44-customer breakeven point to drive this margin expansion.
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Frequently Asked Questions
The initial capital expenditure (CAPEX) is $76,000, covering major items like the $15,000 rotisserie, $20,000 build-out, and $5,000 for initial inventory stock;