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Key Takeaways
- The initial fixed monthly overhead required to run the Etsy and eBay store operation is projected to be approximately $11,763 in 2026, driven primarily by payroll costs.
- Due to the high initial cost structure, the financial model projects the business will require 25 months of operation to reach its break-even point in January 2028.
- Marketplace platform and transaction fees are forecast to be the largest variable operating expense, consuming 70% of revenue in the first year.
- Sustaining operations until profitability necessitates a substantial working capital buffer, with the model indicating a minimum cash requirement of $765,000 is needed to cover the initial negative EBITDA.
Running Cost 1 : Staff Payroll
Fixed Payroll Cost
Payroll sets a high fixed floor for your 2026 operations at $9,583 per month. That covers 25 FTEs, which surprisingly includes the owner's required draw and one part-time bookkeeper.
Payroll Inputs
This $9,583 payroll expense is fixed overhead for 2026. It accounts for 25 FTEs, meaning the blended cost per full-time equivalent is only about $383 monthly. This estimate must include the owner's draw and the part-time bookkeeper’s wages; check that calculation carefully, it seems low.
- Calculate employer taxes and benefits burden.
- Determine owner draw versus salary component.
- Validate the classification of the 25 roles.
Managing Headcount
Managing 25 FTEs means headcount density drives profitability in this curated model. If many roles are low-wage contractors fulfilling listing or packing tasks, check IRS classification rules immediately; misclassification is a huge audit risk.
- Automate listing and inventory updates first.
- Keep the owner draw conservative initially.
- Benchmark bookkeeper costs against outsourced rates.
Fixed Cost Leverage
Since payroll is a fixed cost of $9,583, your gross profit must absorb this before any net income appears. If sales volume lags, this cost will defintely push your break-even point out significantly, especially given high variable costs like 70% Marketplace Fees.
Running Cost 2 : Wholesale Inventory Cost (COGS)
COGS Trajectory
Your Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) begins at 60% of revenue in 2026, improving to 40% by 2030 as purchasing volume increases. This variable drag on margin needs careful tracking, especially since packaging adds another 15% initially.
Inputs for Inventory Cost
This cost covers the wholesale price of goods and 15% of revenue for packaging materials. To project it accurately, multiply expected unit volume by your supplier's unit price, then add the packaging percentage. If you project $500k in 2026 revenue, expect COGS to be $300k plus $75k for packaging.
- Use firm supplier quotes.
- Track packaging cost per unit.
- Factor in freight-in costs.
Managing the Variable Drag
Focus on increasing order density fast to hit volume tiers with suppliers, driving the cost down from 60%. Don't let cash get stuck in slow-moving inventory you curated last quarter. A common mistake is ignoring the packaging component, which is a fixed 15% variable until volume changes it.
- Negotiate tiered pricing now.
- Centralize purchasing volume.
- Review packaging material costs quarterly.
Margin Pressure Point
That planned 20-point drop in COGS between 2026 and 2030 is your margin buffer against the massive 70% marketplace fees. If you fail to secure better supplier pricing early, your gross margin evaporates fast, making profitability defintely harder.
Running Cost 3 : Marketplace Fees
Fees Crush Initial Margin
Platform fees are your immediate financial choke point, starting at 70% of revenue in 2026. This single variable cost is higher than your inventory cost, meaning survival hinges on immediate pricing power or rapid volume growth to cover fixed overhead.
Calculating Marketplace Hit
This expense covers listing charges, payment processing, and sales commissions levied by the external sales venues. You calculate this by taking total projected revenue and multiplying it by the 70% rate specified for 2026. It is a direct, unavoidable cost of using those established customer acquisition channels.
- Covers listing and payment processing.
- Use 70% against gross sales.
- Directly impacts gross profit margin.
Reducing Fee Exposure
You cannot negotiate the platform's fee structure, so optimization means reducing the percentage of sales processed through them. The only lever is aggressively capturing customer data to migrate repeat transactions to your owned website later on. Don't wait until year three for this strategy.
- Cannot negotiate platform rates.
- Build a direct customer list now.
- Move sales volume to owned channels.
The Margin Reality Check
When marketplace fees hit 70% and inventory costs are 60% of revenue, your gross margin before overhead is negative 30%. This defintely means your retail pricing must be high enough to absorb both costs and still cover shipping (35%) and payroll. You need a high Average Order Value (AOV) quickly.
Running Cost 4 : Online Advertising Spend
Ad Budget Reality
Your 2026 marketing budget starts at $15,000 annually, which means you can afford about 1,250 new customers if you hit your $12 target CAC. This spend funds the initial customer pipeline needed to generate sales volume on the marketplaces, which is defintely key.
Cost Breakdown
This $15,000 covers all paid promotion to drive traffic to your curated listings on the platforms. You need to track monthly spend against the $1,250 average to ensure you acquire customers efficiently. The key input is maintaining the $12 CAC goal.
- Acquire 104 customers monthly ($1,250 / $12).
- Budget covers ads across both marketplaces.
- Review spend weekly against target conversion rates.
Spending Tactics
Since curation is your UVP, focus ad spend on high-margin, high-demand items first. Avoid broad keyword bidding common on these platforms. Test creative assets rigorously to lower the cost per click (CPC) and thus drive down the CAC.
- Optimize listings for organic search visibility.
- Reinvest profits from high-AOV sales immediately.
- Track repeat purchase rate; organic growth lowers future CAC needs.
Margin Check
Hitting $12 CAC is critical because high marketplace fees (70% of revenue) and inventory costs (60% of revenue) leave little margin for expensive customer acquisition. If CAC climbs past $15, profitability suffers fast.
Running Cost 5 : Shipping & Fulfillment
Shipping Cost Impact
Shipping costs are projected at 35% of revenue in 2026, covering all postage and logistics for product delivery. This high variable expense immediately pressures your contribution margin and requires aggressive carrier rate management from day one.
Estimating Fulfillment Spend
This 35% rate covers actual postage paid and the internal labor/systems managing logistics for every unit shipped. Calculate expected spend by taking projected monthly revenue and multiplying it by 0.35. Don't forget packaging materials add another 15% of revenue to your total cost of goods sold (COGS). Here’s the quick math: $50k revenue means $17.5k in shipping costs alone.
- Multiply revenue by 0.35 for shipping estimate
- Factor in 15% for packaging materials
- Track cost per shipment by zone
Controlling Logistics Expenses
To lower this 35% burden, you must optimize dimensional weight and carrier mix immediately. Since you are selling curated items, avoid relying only on USPS Priority Mail if UPS or FedEx offer better negotiated rates for your typical package size. Aim to reduce this line item to under 30% within 18 months.
- Negotiate volume discounts now
- Minimize package size and weight
- Audit carrier surcharges monthly
The Variable Cost Trap
The combined variable burden is extreme: Inventory (60%), Marketplace Fees (70%), and Shipping (35%) total 165% of revenue. This defintely signals that Marketplace Fees likely include payment processing or fulfillment components that overlap with the 35% shipping line item, or the current cost structure is unsustainable.
Running Cost 6 : Technology & Services
Fixed Tech Overhead
Your fixed technology and services overhead runs $930 monthly. This baseline cost is non-negotiable month-to-month, regardless of sales volume. It covers essential platform access, compliance needs, and risk mitigation policies. Keep this number locked in your baseline burn rate calculations.
Cost Breakdown
This $930 monthly fixed cost is the baseline for essential digital operation. It includes $250 for necessary software subscriptions, $300 for professional services, and $50 for required business insurance coverage. These inputs are quotes or fixed subscription rates, not tied to revenue. Honestly, these costs are small compared to inventory and marketplace fees.
- Software: $250
- Services: $300
- Insurance: $50
Optimization Levers
Managing this overhead means scrutinizing the $300 professional services line item first. Avoid paying for high-cost consultants when simple, one-time fixes suffice. Review software subscriptions annually to eliminate unused seats or features. Don't skimp on insurance, but shop quotes every year for defintely potential savings.
- Audit software usage quarterly
- Benchmark service quotes yearly
- Bundle insurance policies if possible
Break-Even Context
Since you operate on high-fee marketplaces like Etsy and eBay, this $930 fixed cost represents a significant portion of your pre-revenue operating expense. You must generate enough sales volume to cover this before variable costs like marketplace fees (which start at 70% of revenue) eat your margin.
Running Cost 7 : Packaging Materials
Packaging Cost Baseline
Packaging is a direct variable cost, set at 15% of gross revenue for Year 1 operations. This cost must be managed tightly alongside inventory acquisition and marketplace fees, as it directly impacts gross margin before overhead absorption.
Inputs for Packaging Budget
This 15% allocation covers all necessary materials for safe shipment, like boxes, tape, void fill, and custom branding inserts for your curated items. Estimate this cost by multiplying projected monthly revenue by 0.15. It sits within the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) bucket, separate from the 35% Shipping & Fulfillment spend.
- Monthly Revenue Projection
- Material Unit Costs
- Order Volume Estimates
Optimizing Material Spend
Reducing this 15% variable cost means negotiating bulk rates with suppliers or standardizing box sizes to minimize dimensional weight charges. A common mistake is over-packaging unique items, which inflates costs unnecessarily. Aim to secure quotes for 3-5 primary packaging SKUs defintely.
- Standardize box sizes now
- Negotiate 10%+ bulk discounts
- Audit void fill usage monthly
Margin Impact Warning
Since packaging is a direct COGS input, any fluctuation in material prices directly erodes your gross margin percentage. If the actual cost runs consistently above 15% of revenue, you must immediately raise product prices or renegotiate supplier terms, because the margin compression is real.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Fixed monthly running costs start around $11,763 in 2026, covering $9,583 in payroll and $1,250 in marketing spend Variable costs like inventory and fees are additional, adding about 18% to gross revenue;