After-School Program Break-Even Analysis: $305K Monthly Target

Fixed costs $26.2K/mo Overhead plus staff

Contribution margin 86% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $30.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see when this after-school program breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that pays direct costs and overhead. $ Light roster Full roster Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with enrollment and activity volume. $ Low costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $35,204 $38,058 revenue - $2,854 variable expenses

Margin ratio

93%

Covers fixed costs

$180 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which after-school program expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed?

Cost classification

Break-even works only if stable monthly overhead stays separate from child-driven spend and staffing tiers. Here’s the quick math: a 3% supplies line belongs in contribution margin, while $3,500 rent sits in fixed overhead.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Lease Payment ($3,500/month)	Fixed	Put the full monthly lease in fixed overhead before testing enrollment volume.	Spreading rent per child and missing the cash burn at 50% occupancy.
Business Insurance ($300/month)	Fixed	Keep insurance in fixed overhead because it does not move with daily attendance.	Dropping coverage from break-even because it is not tied to a session.
Program Materials & Supplies (3% of revenue in first year)	Variable	Deduct supplies inside contribution margin because the model ties it to revenue.	Treating supplies as fixed and overstating margin when enrollment rises.
Snacks & Refreshments (2% of revenue in first year)	Variable	Run snacks through contribution margin since spend follows enrolled children and billable activity.	Using one flat snack budget and underpricing high-attendance months.
Marketing & Advertising (5% of revenue in first year)	Variable	Model marketing as a revenue-linked selling expense when calculating contribution margin.	Calling marketing fixed and missing the drag during growth periods.
Vehicle Fuel & Maintenance (4% of revenue in first year)	Variable	Deduct fuel and maintenance from contribution margin because the model scales it with revenue.	Ignoring route volume and making transportation look more profitable than it is.
Cleaning Services ($600/month base)	Semi-variable	Place the $600 base in fixed overhead, and track added cleaning separately if hours expand.	Leaving cleaning flat after adding rooms, longer hours, or more children.
Certified Educator Payroll ($45,000 salary; 2.0 FTE in first year)	Semi-fixed	Model educator payroll as staffing coverage that steps up as enrollment tiers rise.	Treating payroll as optional when child supervision requires covered staff.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full enrollment?

Scenario table

Break-even improves as occupancy and tuition rise, but staffing stays heavy. The lean case is far below break-even, the base case is close, and the full Year 5 case reaches a small profit.

These are planning assumptions based on the model, not a guarantee of results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 at 50% occupancy	$146K	$20K	$262K	86.3%	-$136K	Still far from break-even; occupancy must rise before staffing can be covered.
Base Year 1 full roster	$278K	$39K	$262K	86.0%	-$24K	Very close, but fixed staffing still leaves a small loss.
Full Year 5 at 90% occupancy	$488K	$46K	$430K	90.6%	$12K	Near break-even with a small cushion as tuition and occupancy absorb staffing.

What breaks the break-even plan if enrollment slips or costs rise?

Stress test

Year 5 has only a small cushion above break-even, so a 10% revenue dip or a 10% jump in staffed overhead pushes the plan into loss. A 3-point margin hit nearly erases profit, and combined pressure creates a much wider gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$475,000	$13,000 cushion	Only a thin cushion remains.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% from the Year 5 base.	$475,000	$36,000 gap	Lower enrollment quickly turns profit into a loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Staffed fixed costs rise 10% in Year 5.	$522,000	$34,000 gap	Higher payroll and site overhead erase the cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable expense load rises 3 points.	$491,000	$3,000 gap	Small cost creep almost wipes out break-even headroom.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, variable load rises to 125%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$544,000	$105,000 gap	Soft demand plus cost inflation creates a deep loss.

What should you verify before you sign the lease for an after-school program?

Founder checklist

Before you sign the lease or hire, prove you can fill enough paid seats to cover the staffed monthly load. Here’s the quick math: Year 1 fixed costs run about $26.2K a month, and the model only works if pricing and occupancy can support roughly $305K in annual operating revenue, apart from the $130K startup spend.

1Parent demand50% occupancy

Confirm enough families will enroll at the Year 1 occupancy rate, because empty seats never cover supervision.

2Fixed load$26.2K/mo

Verify lease, utilities, insurance, software, cleaning, and base wages fit this monthly load before you open.

3Unit margin86% CM

Keep supplies, snacks, marketing, and fuel near 14% of revenue so each extra child still helps pay overhead.

4Staffing ramp5.5 FTE

Confirm you can staff 5.5 full-time equivalents in Year 1 and scale without breaking supervision or schedule fit.

5Cash cushion$869K

Hold enough cash to cover the Month 2 trough, since the model’s minimum cash need is $869K.

6Pickup timingMonth 2

Do not market pickup service until school pickup access and van timing are locked, or demand will outrun transport capacity.