Alcohol Delivery Break-Even Analysis: $866K/Month Target

Fixed costs $71.5K/mo Run-rate base

Contribution margin 82.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $86.6K/mo Revenue to cover

Break-even timing Month 29 First break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see when this alcohol delivery service covers its monthly overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin pool that has to cover fixed overhead. $ Slow month Strong month Variable expenses Use direct costs that move with sales, like delivery, payment, support, and ads. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $98,000 $140,000 revenue - $42,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

70%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin must cover. $ Tight overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed and which move with orders?

Cost classification

The Month 29 break-even only holds if revenue-linked fees stay out of fixed overhead and setup spend stays out of operating break-even. Put each cost in the right bucket before trusting the target.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Model as 2.5% of revenue in Year 1, falling to 2.0% by Year 5.	Using 25%; the model assumption is 2.5% in Year 1.
Third-Party Delivery Service Costs	Variable	Model as 5.0% of revenue in Year 1, declining to 4.0% by Year 5.	Treating delivery as fixed when it rises with order volume.
Customer Support Expenses	Variable	Model as 3.0% of revenue in Year 1, improving to 2.0% by Year 5.	Assuming support is free until a full-time hire starts.
Digital Advertising Spend	Variable	Model as 7.0% of revenue in Year 1, stepping down to 5.0% by Year 5.	Using 70%; the model assumption is 7.0% in Year 1.
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $3,000 per month across the planning period.	Spreading rent by order and hiding the true fixed hurdle.
Legal & Compliance Retainer	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Leaving compliance out because it does not create orders.
Core executive and engineering payroll	Fixed	Include about $42,917 per month in Year 1 for CEO, CTO, half-time marketing, half-time operations, and one engineer.	Forgetting that founder and engineering payroll drives the monthly burn floor.
Annual buyer and seller acquisition budgets	Semi-fixed	Plan $250,000 in Year 1, made up of $200,000 buyer marketing and $50,000 seller marketing.	Putting the $255,000 setup spend into monthly operating break-even.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to a base build and a full delivery zone?

Scenario table

Break-even moves mainly with fixed payroll and acquisition spend, while contribution margin (CM) stays high enough to keep the line sensitive to volume. The lean case tests demand density; the full case needs much stronger order flow.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with demand mix, local fees, and delivery cost.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$86,606	$15,156	$71,450	82.5%	$0	Tests demand density before adding more spend.
Base build	$146,826	$24,225	$122,700	83.5%	$0	This is the main break-even check for repeat demand.
Full delivery zone	$226,832	$34,922	$191,900	84.6%	$0	Needs stronger order volume and fee mix to hold a cushion.

What pushes this alcohol delivery plan past break-even?

Stress test

At $86,600 in monthly revenue, the plan has little room for misses. A 10% sales drop, a 5-point margin hit, or $10,000 more fixed overhead can push the model back into a monthly gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$86,600	$0 gap	Break-even is reached, but barely.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to $77,900.	$86,600	$7,100 gap	Small demand slips create a cash hole.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises by $10,000.	$98,700	$12,100 gap	More rent or staff pushes break-even up.
Margin pressure	Variable expense rate rises from 17.5% to 22.5%.	$92,200	$5,600 gap	Lower contribution margin leaves less room.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, variable rate hits 22.5%, and overhead adds $10,000.	$97,000	$27,700 gap	Three hits together widen the monthly hole.

Can this alcohol delivery service clear break-even before you lock in lease, hiring, and launch spend?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, make sure demand, seller access, and order economics can support the Month 29 break-even path. The model already shows a $777K cash trough, so weak conversion, weak supply, or a broken compliance flow will push the ramp off track.

1Buyer Demand5,000 buyers

Test paid conversion before you count on 5,000 Year 1 buyers from $200K of marketing at a $40 CAC.

2Seller Access100 sellers

Secure real seller interest before assuming 100 Year 1 sellers off $50K of spend at a $500 CAC.

3Order Value$71 AOV

Check that the weighted average order value stays near $71, because smaller baskets do not carry delivery and support costs for long.

4Contribution Margin82.5% CM

With 2.5% processing, 5.0% third-party delivery, 3.0% support, and 7.0% digital ads, Year 1 contribution margin is about 82.5%; if it drops, slow lease, hiring, and platform expansion.

5Fixed Burn$50.6K/mo

The model carries about $50.6K of fixed burn per month, so verify the Month 13 sales and support ramp can absorb volume without pushing service issues into churn.

6Runway CheckMonth 29

Confirm the license path, age checks, the $400 insurance line, and the $1,500 legal retainer before you spend more, and keep enough cash for the modeled $777K trough through Month 29 break-even.