Aquatic Therapy Center Break-Even Analysis: $62K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $20.0K Monthly overhead

Contribution margin 86.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $23.1K Cover overhead

Break-even timing Month 14 Forecast turning point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against direct costs and fixed overhead to see where break-even lands.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool of sales that has to cover direct costs and then fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with patient volume, like billing, marketing, chemicals, and upkeep. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $37,300 $43,100 revenue - $5,800 variable expenses

Margin ratio

87%

Covers fixed costs

$16,200 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin must cover before profit starts. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which aquatic therapy center expenses are fixed, and which move with treatment volume?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when fixed pool overhead is mixed with session-driven items. Model fixed commitments first, then apply revenue-linked rates like 2.0% for pool chemicals and 6.0% for billing fees in the first year.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Lease/Mortgage	Fixed	Include $12,000 of monthly overhead before any treatment volume helps.	Treating the lease as session-driven.
Utilities Water Heating Electricity	Semi-variable	Start with the $3,500 monthly base, then stress-test higher pool-hour use.	Assuming pool utility usage stays flat.
Pool Chemicals & Water Treatment	Variable	Apply 2.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 1.6% by Year 5.	Hiding pool consumables inside overhead.
Specialized Equipment Maintenance	Variable	Apply 1.5% of revenue in the first year, falling to 1.1% by Year 5.	Ignoring volume-linked equipment wear.
Therapist payroll	Semi-fixed	Use first-year clinical payroll of $330,000 per year, about $27,500 per month, then add staff in steps as referrals fill capacity.	Hiring ahead of referral demand.
Medical Billing Service Fees	Variable	Apply 6.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 5.2% by Year 5.	Treating billing fees as fixed overhead.
Marketing & Patient Acquisition	Variable	Apply 4.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 3.2% by Year 5.	Cutting demand spend too early.
EMR Software Subscription	Fixed	Include the electronic medical record subscription at $800 per month.	Omitting required software from overhead.

How does break-even move from a lean launch to a full referral-driven schedule?

Scenario table

More sessions lift revenue faster than costs because variable spend stays small, but fixed payroll and facility costs step up fast. So the lean case still loses money, the base case sits at break-even, and the full case creates a real cushion.

These are planning assumptions, not a promise of demand, pricing, staffing, or margin results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$491k	$66k	$535k	86.6%	($110k)	Still below break-even; fixed costs outrun volume.
Base break-even case	$618k	$83k	$535k	86.6%	$0k	At break-even; small volume gains turn profit.
Full referral-backed case	$1,038k	$134k	$767k	87.1%	$137k	Clear cushion; the clinic can absorb hiring steps.

What breaks the break-even plan for an aquatic therapy center?

Stress test

The base plan needs tight booking flow and clean cost control to hit break-even. A 10% revenue miss, a 10% overhead jump, or a 3-point margin drop pushes the target up fast; stacked together, the gap turns sharp.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$619k	$128k gap	The launch plan still needs steady volume to cover fixed overhead.
Revenue shortfall	Launch revenue falls 10% to $442k.	$619k	$177k gap	Referral delays and underfilled pool hours leave more cost uncovered.
Fixed-cost rise	Monthly overhead rises 10% to about $588k.	$680k	$189k gap	Lease, utilities, and therapist overtime hit break-even faster.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 3 points to 83.5% from higher pool spend and wage pressure.	$641k	$150k gap	Each visit covers less fixed cost, so break-even drifts out.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, overhead rises 10%, and margin falls to 83.5%.	$705k	$263k gap	Referral delays, payer denials, and overtime can stack into a cash squeeze.

What should you verify before you sign the lease and buy the pool?

Founder checklist

Do not sign the lease or order the pool until the referral flow, staffing plan, and cash cushion clear the break-even test. This model needs about 467 monthly sessions, a Month 14 breakeven path, and enough cash to absorb the modeled $120K trough in Month 24.

1Referral flow467/mo

Verify physicians, surgeons, and rehab partners can send about 467 monthly sessions, or fixed costs will outrun demand.

2Fixed load$15.5K/mo

Check that the $12,000 lease and $3,500 utilities fit local demand before you lock in the space.

3Contribution86.5% CM

Year 1 variable costs total 13.5% of revenue, so the model keeps 86.5% contribution margin before fixed overhead.

4Staffing ramp670/mo

Confirm the launch roster can deliver 670 monthly treatments, because that opening team already carries about $33.5K a month in salary cost.

5Cash runwayMonth 24

Keep cash for the Month 14 break-even path and the modeled $120K trough in Month 24, because payback lasts 51 months.

6Launch readinessPre-open

Secure liability insurance, accessibility compliance, and pool safety procedures before opening, and only launch when the first month can sell the Year 1 price mix of $70 to $180.