Arepa Food Truck Break-Even Analysis: About $70K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $18.6K Monthly base

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $23.1K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 3 Model payback

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly revenue can cover variable costs and fixed costs before the truck hits break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Higher revenue gives you more dollars left after variable costs to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Use costs that rise with sales, like ingredients, packaging, marketing, and outreach. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $170,926 $210,500 revenue - $39,574 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use monthly truck overhead and staffing that stay due even if sales dip. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales for this arepa business?

Cost classification

Break-even gets shaky when fixed bills are modeled like order-driven costs. In the first operating year, separate monthly overhead from revenue-linked items so the Month 3 break-even target stays useful.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Restaurant Lease	Fixed	Use $12,500 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as sales-driven.
Utilities	Semi-fixed	Start with $2,200 per month, then review when prep load or service days increase.	Ignoring route, prep, and equipment load.
Insurance and Licensing	Fixed	Use $1,100 per month as recurring operating overhead.	Burying permits in startup spend only.
POS and Software Subscriptions	Fixed	Use $650 per month unless the subscription tier changes.	Tying the full subscription to each order.
Maintenance and Cleaning Services	Semi-fixed	Use $1,800 per month, with step-ups when volume requires added service.	Missing service-volume jumps.
Premium Ingredients and Meats	Variable	Model at 11.5% of first-year revenue, falling to 10.5% by Year 5.	Using menu price as margin.
Beverage Inventory	Variable	Model at 3.5% of first-year revenue, falling to 3.0% by Year 5.	Forgetting drinks still carry product cost.
Staffing Lines	Semi-fixed	Use about $37,667 per month in Year 1 payroll before later FTE increases.	Assuming every labor dollar flexes daily.

How does break-even change from a lean launch mix to a full-volume arepa truck?

Scenario table

As sales scale, variable costs take a smaller share of revenue and the cushion above fixed costs widens. Here’s the quick math: Year 1 is tightest, while Year 5 has the strongest break-even buffer.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions, not guarantees; actual break-even will move with traffic, mix, and labor timing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch mix	$164.3k	$32.0k	$62.1k	80.5%	$70.2k	Sales clear break-even, but this is the thinnest cushion.
Base steady mix	$210.5k	$39.6k	$70.8k	81.2%	$100.1k	A steadier lunch-and-event mix gives a better cushion.
Full weekend mix	$288.6k	$47.6k	$90.6k	83.5%	$151.2k	Strong weekend volume gives the widest cushion and lowest risk.

What breaks the break-even plan for this arepa food truck?

Stress test

At an 80.5% contribution margin, the base plan has about $1.13M of annual cushion over break-even. The risk is slower covers, ingredient creep, and fixed costs rising before sales prove out.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$838,764	$1,133,236 cushion	Healthy cushion, but fixed payroll and rent still matter.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls by $10,000 a month.	$838,764	$1,013,236 cushion	Slower weekday covers or weaker weekend tickets cut cushion fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise by $5,000 a month.	$913,043	$1,058,957 cushion	New rent or staffing pushes break-even higher right away.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise by 1 percentage point.	$849,623	$1,122,377 cushion	Ingredient price creep trims contribution on every sale.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls by $10,000 a month, fixed costs rise by $5,000 a month, and variable expenses rise by 1 percentage point.	$924,528	$927,472 cushion	Sales, margin, and fixed-cost pressure shrink the safety net fast.

What should you verify before committing to the mobile arepa truck?

Founder checklist

Confirm the route, ticket, and cover math before you sign the truck, stock the first inventory, or hire up. If midweek and weekend demand can’t hold at $65 and $85, the Month 3 breakeven path and Month 4 cash floor get shaky.

1Route Covers558/week

Count only stops you can actually sell on, then test the 45 Monday to 140 Saturday cover plan against real foot traffic so the Year 1 revenue target of $1.972M stays credible.

2Fixed Load$18.6K/mo

Keep monthly non-labor overhead near $18.6K so extra truck, commissary, or software spend does not push break-even past the modeled line.

3Margin Check80.5% CM

Verify supplier pricing keeps premium ingredients at 11.5% of sales and beverage inventory at 3.5%, because the model only works if contribution stays near 80.5% before fixed costs.

4Labor Ramp$452K/yr

Make sure 11.0 FTE can cover the weekly volume without overtime, because Year 1 payroll already totals $452K and the headcount rises to 13.5 FTE in Year 2.

5Cash Floor$626K

Hold at least $626K through Month 4, because capex keeps landing through Month 6 and the $25K first inventory buy should not be funded with thin cash.

6Launch StackMonth 3

Confirm the point of sale (POS), menu, and backup route plan are live before launch month so weather or event swings do not knock the truck off the Month 3 breakeven path.