Artisan Food Break-Even: $183K Monthly Revenue Before Launch Risk

Fixed costs $15.1K/mo Overhead and payroll

Contribution margin 82.7% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $18.3K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 First break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly sales cover direct food costs and the kitchen's fixed overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash pool that covers direct costs and fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are the direct costs that rise with each jar, bottle, or pack sold. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $25,233 $30,500 revenue - $5,267 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin must cover. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales for this small-batch food business?

Cost classification

Break-even works only if each expense follows the right behavior. Treat jars, ingredients, labor, and fees as volume-linked, but keep rent, insurance, and core admin separate from unit economics.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw Ingredients	Variable	Include per unit, from $0.70 to $1.50 depending on the product.	Using one blended rate without checking product mix.
Glass Jar & Label	Variable	Include per unit, from $0.40 to $0.80 as production volume rises.	Treating jars and labels as fixed overhead.
Direct Production Labor	Variable	Model per unit, from $0.20 to $0.40 based on the product made.	Putting batch labor below fixed payroll.
Shipping & Fulfillment Costs	Variable	Apply as a revenue-based charge: 4.0% in Year 1, falling to 2.0% in Year 5.	Forgetting that each online sale carries fulfillment drag.
Payment Processing & Sales Commissions	Variable	Apply as a revenue-based charge: 2.0% in Year 1, falling to 1.6% in Year 5.	Netting fees against sales instead of showing margin impact.
Commercial Kitchen Lease	Fixed	Use $2,500 per month through Month 60 in the break-even base.	Spreading rent across units before testing monthly coverage.
Utilities (Kitchen & Office)	Semi-variable	Start with the $600 monthly charge, then test higher use when production hours rise.	Treating all utility spend as fixed at higher volume.
Production Equipment Maintenance	Fixed	Use $100 per month unless the model ties repairs to run hours.	Making maintenance variable without a run-hour driver.

How does break-even change from a lean artisan mix to a full production mix?

Scenario table

Higher volume lifts revenue faster than fixed costs, so the break-even line stays covered; lean has the thinnest cushion because fixed costs plus payroll are still about $15.1k a month.

Planning case only. These figures use model assumptions, not guaranteed results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean first-year mix	$30.5k	$5.3k	$15.1k	82.7%	$9.3k	Break-even sits near $18.3k a month, so this is covered but tight.
Base second-year mix	$47.0k	$7.7k	$20.7k	83.6%	$15.3k	Break-even moves up to about $24.8k a month, yet the cushion stays solid.
Full third-year mix	$64.3k	$10.0k	$27.6k	84.4%	$21.3k	Break-even is near $32.7k a month, but wholesale sell-through has to hold.

What breaks first if sales slip or costs rise?

Stress test

The plan clears break-even, but the cushion is thin. A 20% sales miss, a 5-point drop in contribution margin (gross profit after variable costs), or $3,000 more fixed cost each squeeze it fast; together they leave little room.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Base revenue is about $30,500 a month, with 82.7% contribution margin and about $15,100 in fixed costs plus payroll.	$18,300	$12,200 cushion	Base case clears break-even by a wide enough margin.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 20% to about $24,400 a month.	$18,300	$6,100 cushion	Lower sell-through cuts the buffer fast.
Fixed-cost rise	Fixed costs rise by $3,000 a month.	$21,900	$8,600 cushion	Extra kitchen, labor, or admin spend pushes break-even up.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops 5 points to 77.7%.	$19,500	$11,000 cushion	Ingredient and packaging inflation erode the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, contribution margin drops 5 points, and fixed costs rise by $3,000 a month.	$23,400	$1,000 cushion	One more miss can flip this to a loss.

What should the founder verify before signing the kitchen lease and scaling small-batch production?

Founder checklist

Check that sales can clear the $18.3K monthly break-even line, that each SKU still leaves room after unit costs and fees, and that supply, storage, and staffing can handle the first-year plan. If those checks fail, the lease, inventory buy, and hires are too early.

1Sales floor$18.3K/mo

Verify the first-channel run rate can clear the break-even sales line before you lock the lease or commit to a larger batch.

2Fixed load$4.07K/mo

Keep rent, utilities, website, insurance, accounting, maintenance, and software near the listed fixed load, or break-even moves up fast.

3Unit margin$13.45-$20.40/unit

At first-year prices and unit costs, each SKU should leave about $13.45 to $20.40 per unit before overhead, so watch price cuts closely.

4Batch scale18,000 units

Confirm batch size, shelf life, storage, and supplier reliability for fruit, herbs, jars, labels, and packaging can support the 18,000-unit plan, and keep hiring to founder plus lead kitchen staff until repeat demand shows.

5Cash trough$1.153M, Month 2

Hold enough cash to absorb the Month 2 low point and the $117K capital program, because build-out spend is not the same as operating break-even.

6Launch gatePre-launch

Verify food safety, labeling, permits, insurance, and repeat order signals before channel launch so the first sales can ship cleanly and keep coming back.