Non-Alcoholic Drink Production Break-Even: $288K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $6.45K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 83% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $7.8K/mo Sales target

Break-even timing Month 2 Cumulative breakeven

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs stack up against break-even for a non-alcoholic drink maker.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the cash left after variable costs to cover fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct costs rise with sales, like ingredients, packaging, and shipping. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $137,713 $163,833 revenue - $26,120 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These monthly costs stay on the books even before volume scales. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which beverage production expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Classification matters because break-even in Month 2 depends on not loading unit-driven items into overhead. In the first year, revenue-based variable items total 7.0%: 3.0% COGS-linked percentages plus 4.0% sales, distribution, and promotion.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Packaging, bottles, labels, and ingredients	Variable	Model per unit produced, since these items rise with beverage volume.	Treating materials as monthly overhead instead of unit economics.
Co-packing labor and shipping per unit	Variable	Apply the per-unit rates directly to produced units in each period.	Blending fulfillment labor into salaries and hiding margin pressure.
Revenue-based production fees	Variable	Use 3.0% of revenue for co-packer share, packaging design, quality control, ingredient sourcing, and recipe development portions.	Calling packaging design, quality control, sourcing, or recipe work fixed when the model sets them as percentages.
Sales, distribution, and promotion	Variable	Use 4.0% of first-year revenue, then adjust by year as the percentages decline.	Keeping the first-year rate flat through the mature period.
Office rent, insurance, software, legal, hosting, and lab supplies	Fixed	Carry these as monthly overhead: $3,500, $600, $400, $1,000, $250, and $700.	Allocating stable overhead to bottles and overstating unit-level break-even.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $800 monthly base and watch for usage pressure as production volume rises.	Treating the full utility bill as fixed when production use can move.
Operations manager and quality control technician salaries	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps as capacity grows, with quality control starting after the first year.	Scaling salaried oversight smoothly with each unit sold.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full operating scenarios?

Scenario table

Break-even improves fast as volume rises because fixed costs get spread across more monthly sales, while variable costs stay close to revenue. The main watchout is demand: more capacity only helps if buyers keep up.

Planning figures are modeled assumptions, not guarantees, so actual break-even can move with mix, pricing, and costs.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean first-year average	$51,875	$8,844	$23,917	83.0%	$19,115	Near break-even; a small sales miss matters.
Base third-year average	$163,833	$26,120	$42,042	84.1%	$95,671	Fixed costs are covered with more cushion.
Full fifth-year average	$310,667	$46,128	$43,917	85.1%	$220,622	Strong cushion, but demand still has to follow.

What breaks the break-even plan for this non-alcoholic drink business?

Stress test

Year 1 clears break-even, but the cushion is only about $23,075. A 45% sales miss, a 25% rise in payroll and overhead, or variable costs lifting to 70% of sales can wipe that out fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$28,800	$23,075 cushion	Year 1 clears break-even with room.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue falls 45% to $28,531.	$28,800	$269 gap	A small miss pushes the plan below break-even.
Fixed-cost increase	Payroll and overhead run 25% higher.	$36,040	$15,835 cushion	Fixed cost pressure moves break-even into the mid-$30k range.
Variable-expense pressure	Bottle cost moves from $0.08 to $0.10, labels stay at $0.02, raw materials rise from $0.11 to $0.16, shipping moves from $0.03 to $0.04, and variable expenses reach 70% of sales.	$79,723	$27,848 gap	Margin gets too thin to support the current fixed base.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 45%, fixed costs run 25% higher, and packaging, ingredient, freight, and spoilage pressure push variable expenses to 70% of sales.	$99,654	$71,123 gap	Sales miss and cost inflation together create a steep cash burn risk.

Can you prove enough drink demand before you buy equipment and lock packaging?

Founder checklist

The first-year plan depends on about 180,000 units and $622,500 in revenue, or roughly 8,300 units a month, so test that demand before you commit to equipment, hiring, or packaging.

1Demand Proof8,300/mo

Verify buyers can absorb that pace at the planned mix before you sign leases or place large orders.

2Fixed Load$23.9K/mo

Your base fixed load is about $23.9K a month, so keep office and staffing lean until the Month 2 break-even holds.

3Margin Check83% CM

Secure quotes for raw materials, bottles, labels, co-packing labor, and shipping; the plan only works if the roughly 83% contribution margin holds.

4Capacity Ramp$243K capex

Verify the line, racking, vehicle, and lab can carry Year 1 volume before you spend $243K and add hires.

5Cash Cushion$1.146M

Keep enough cash through the Month 8 low point and stage hiring to the Month 2 break-even, because the model’s minimum cash is $1.146M.

6Launch DemandChannel proof

Do not buy packaging until shelf life and quality control pass and channel commitments are real, or cash gets stuck in inventory.