B2C Business Break-Even Analysis: Month 30 Revenue Plan

Fixed costs $12.9K/mo Fixed monthly base

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $15.9K/mo Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 30 Cash break-even point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a B2C business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers direct cost and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with each sale, like sourcing, shipping, and payment fees. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $53,000 $65,000 revenue - $12,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base revenue has to cover before profit starts. $ Low base High base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which B2C expenses are fixed, and which move with sales before break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if stable overhead stays fixed and order-linked costs move with revenue. Misclassifying shipping, sourcing, or marketing can make Month 30 break-even look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Website Hosting & Platform Fees	Fixed	Use $800 per month as operating overhead.	Tying it to each order.
Customer Service Software	Fixed	Use $250 per month as recurring overhead.	Treating it as per-customer spend.
Warehousing Base Fee (3PL)	Fixed	Use $1,500 per month before shipping charges.	Blending base storage with fulfillment.
Founder/CEO payroll	Fixed	Include $100,000 annual salary in operating break-even.	Leaving owner pay outside the model.
Online marketing budget	Semi-variable	Model planned spend from $120,000 in Year 1 to $400,000 in Year 3, then test CAC.	Hiding customer acquisition pressure.
Product Sourcing & Acquisition	Variable	Apply as revenue-linked COGS: 10.0% in Year 1 and 9.0% in Year 3.	Calling inventory a fixed expense.
Fulfillment & Shipping Costs	Variable	Apply to sales volume: 5.0% in Year 1 and 4.5% in Year 3.	Mixing shipping with warehouse base fees.
Customer Service Lead	Semi-fixed	Add the $50,000 annual role from Month 25 when support volume needs it.	Spreading future headcount across Month 1.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch plan to a full-scale plan?

Scenario table

Break-even gets harder as marketing, payroll, and overhead scale faster than revenue. The lean case has the smallest cash gap, the base case lines up with the model’s Month 30 break-even point, and the full case needs much more monthly sales to stay even.

Planning figures are modeled assumptions, not a guarantee of future results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$281k	$52k	$229k	81.5%	$0	Very tight cushion; CAC swings can flip this case.
Base break-even case	$776k	$130k	$646k	83.3%	$0	This is the closest to the model’s Month 30 break-even point.
Full scale case	$1,198k	$177k	$1,021k	85.2%	$0	Works only if repeat demand supports the larger fixed load.

What breaks this break-even plan?

Stress test

The base plan reaches break-even at about $776k of revenue, but a 10% sales miss or a 10% rise in fixed costs pushes it off balance fast. Shipping inflation, CAC above $35 in Year 3, weak repeat orders, and hiring ahead of demand are the main pressure points.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$776k	$0 gap	Right at break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to about $698k.	$776k	$78k gap	A small top-line miss flips profit to loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed commitments rise 10% to about $711k.	$853k	$77k gap	Extra overhead needs more sales just to hold even.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 3 points, cutting margin to 80.3%.	$804k	$28k gap	Shipping or processing inflation removes the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise 3 points.	$886k	$188k gap	High CAC, weak repeat orders, and early hiring can deepen the loss.

Can this B2C launch clear break-even before you commit to full spend?

Founder checklist

Don’t scale the launch until demand, margin, and cash all point toward break-even. If monthly revenue is still far below the $776K base level, slow the marketing push and keep hiring and inventory tight.

1Demand proof$776K/mo

Verify that monthly revenue can get close to the break-even base before you commit to full launch spend.

2Unit margin81.5%-83.3% CM

Here’s the quick math: the model keeps about 81.5% to 83.3% contribution after sourcing, packaging, shipping, and payment fees, so growth only works if this band holds.

3Fixed load$4.6K/mo

Check that the monthly fixed stack, including platform, software, accounting, insurance, utilities, tools, and 3PL base fee, is covered before you scale paid traffic.

4Cash trough$304K cash

Protect the Month 31 cash low, because the model needs a $304K minimum cash cushion before it turns the corner.

5Hiring rampYear 2 hires

Stage the Marketing Manager and Curation Specialist for Year 2 only after demand is proven, so payroll does not outrun revenue.

6Repeat demand25%→45%

Track repeat customers from 25% in Year 1 toward 45% in Year 3, keep seed stock capped at $30K until that trend holds, and only scale paid traffic once fulfillment passes a small-order test.