Bar Break-Even Analysis: About $36K In Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $6.8K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 82.5% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $8.2K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 3 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a bar.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that must cover variable costs and fixed overhead. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with sales, like beverage supplies, food ingredients, packaging, and payment processing. $ Tight cost Heavy cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $61,050 $74,000 revenue - $12,950 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base that stays on even when traffic is soft. $ Lean setup Higher setup

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which bar expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each expense lands in the right bucket. Put rent and subscriptions in fixed overhead, deduct sales-linked costs from margin, and treat labor as step-based when schedules expand.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Use the $5,000 monthly rent in fixed overhead for the planning range.	Spreading rent across each cover and hiding the monthly hurdle.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $800 monthly base, then adjust when longer hours raise usage.	Leaving utilities flat while adding service days or late-night hours.
Point-of-sale subscription	Fixed	Include the $150 monthly subscription in fixed overhead.	Mixing the subscription with payment processing fees.
Staff payroll	Semi-fixed	Model first-year payroll at about $22.4k per month, then step it up as full-time equivalents rise.	Treating all labor as a straight percentage of sales.
Beverage supplies	Variable	Deduct the first-year 7.0% of sales from revenue before contribution margin.	Treating inventory purchases as fixed monthly overhead.
Food ingredients	Variable	Deduct the first-year 5.0% of sales with other direct product inputs.	Using one blended margin and missing food mix changes.
Packaging supplies	Variable	Deduct the first-year 3.0% of sales as order-linked spend.	Keeping packaging flat even when cover volume grows.
Payment processing	Variable	Deduct the first-year 2.5% of sales from contribution margin.	Putting card fees in fixed overhead instead of sales-linked expense.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full bar cases?

Scenario table

If traffic and check size rise together, break-even moves down fast. The catch is that payroll and rent rise too, so the cushion only holds if volume grows faster than overhead.

Planning figures only. Real results can move with mix, staffing, and cost rates.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening case	$89k	$16k	$30k	82.5%	$44k	Positive, but the cushion is still thin.
Base case	$146k	$22k	$41k	85.1%	$84k	Break-even is covered with a solid operating cushion.
Full run-rate case	$202k	$25k	$52k	87.7%	$126k	Strong cushion, but it depends on holding the higher traffic plan.

What breaks the bar’s break-even cushion?

Stress test

The base plan has a wide cushion, so the first real pressure points are payroll and margin. A 10% sales drop still leaves room, but the safety net tightens fast if labor, rent, and fees all move up together.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$364k	$531k cushion	About $531k of cushion in the base plan.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 sales fall 10% to about $805k.	$364k	$441k cushion	Still above break-even, but the cushion drops fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Payroll rises 10%, adding about $22k per month.	$391k	$503k cushion	Labor is the first cost pressure to watch.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 3 points, cutting contribution margin to 79.5%.	$378k	$516k cushion	Small fee drift still leaves room, but it trims flexibility.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 10%, payroll rises 10%, variable expenses rise 3 points, and rent rises $1,000 per month.	$417k	$388k cushion	Still positive, but the safety net is much thinner.

Can this bar clear break-even before you sign the lease and start buildout?

Founder checklist

Here’s the quick math: the model turns positive in Month 3, but only if Year 1 demand, pricing, staffing, and cash all line up. Don’t commit until the 1,330 weekly covers, $12/$18 spend, and $825K minimum cash point still hold.

1Demand cover1,330/wk

Verify the bar can hold 1,330 weekly covers, because Year 1 break-even assumes 550 midweek and 780 weekend covers.

2Lease load$7.6K/mo fixed

Check that $5,000 rent plus the $7.6K monthly fixed load still leaves enough margin, because fixed costs hit every month before volume catches up.

3Menu spend$12 / $18 AOV

Test whether the menu can really support $12 midweek and $18 weekend average spend, because the cover plan only works at those checks.

4Staffing ramp$22.4K/mo payroll

Approve payroll only if the Year 1 staffing plan can stay near $22.4K per month, because labor has to match the sales ramp and opening-week coverage.

5Cash reserve$825K min cash

Keep enough cash for $86.5K of capex and the $825K minimum cash point in Month 2, because the low-cash period arrives before the bar stabilizes.

6Launch stack$2.0K stock

Do not open until alcohol license timing, supplier setup, POS, insurance, utilities, and $2,000 of initial inventory are all ready.