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Bath Bomb Business Break-Even Analysis: $107K Monthly Sales


This bath bomb break-even analysis uses a five-year planning period for a US maker selling 30,000 units in Year 1 at $325,500 revenue It includes ingredients, packaging, production add-ons, platform fees, shipping, fixed overhead, and founder pay, but excludes taxes, lender rules, and profit guarantees


Fixed costs $2.4K/mo Base overhead
Contribution margin 79% After variable spend
Break-even revenue $3.1K/mo Monthly cover point
Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly sales cover variable costs and fixed costs for a bath bomb business.

Money available to cover fixed costs $36,311 $45,521 revenue - $9,210 variable expenses
Margin ratio
80%
Covers fixed costs
Yes
Break-even chart Revenue Total costs
Plan Break-even $0 $0

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales in a bath bomb business?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if unit-linked spend stays out of overhead. Here, packaging, ingredients, shipping, and sales fees move with volume, while rent and core admin bills must be covered each month.

Expense Cost Break-Even Treatment Common Mistake
Essential Oils Variable Use $0.40 per unit in unit economics before calculating contribution margin. Treating fragrance inputs as general supplies instead of per-unit spend.
Citric Acid Variable Use $0.20 per unit because it rises with each unit produced. Leaving small ingredient lines out because each unit amount looks minor.
Baking Soda Variable Use $0.15 per unit in the direct production formula. Rolling base ingredients into overhead and overstating margin.
Colorant & Fragrance Variable Use $0.25 per unit so each product carries its own formula spend. Counting scent and color upgrades as marketing instead of product inputs.
Product Packaging Variable Use $0.20 per unit because every sale needs packaging. Treating packaging as fixed overhead instead of unit-linked spend.
Marketing & Platform Fees Variable Use 4.0% of first-year revenue, then the lower forecast rates in later years. Modeling marketplace and platform fees as flat monthly overhead.
Shipping & Fulfillment Variable Use 6.0% of first-year revenue because fulfillment scales with sales volume. Forgetting that shipping grows when order volume grows.
Workshop Rent Fixed Use $1,500 per month as a fixed hurdle before profit starts. Spreading rent across units too early and hiding the monthly cash need.

How does break-even shift from lean to base to a fuller team?

Scenario table

Lean overhead keeps break-even low. Once founder pay and then a fuller Year 2 team hit the model, fixed costs rise faster than margin, so the business needs more monthly sales to stay at the same profit level.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even moves with price, mix, and demand.
Scenario Monthly Revenue Variable Costs Fixed Costs CM Ratio Operating Profit Break-Even Signal
Lean workshop $27,125 $6,228 $2,420 77.1% $18,477 Break-even stays far below the Year 1 run rate.
Founder-led base $27,125 $6,228 $8,253 77.1% $12,644 Break-even sits near $10.7k, so the model has cushion.
Year 2 staffed team $35,604 $7,640 $14,920 78.5% $13,044 The bigger team lifts break-even to about $19.0k.

What breaks the break-even plan for this bath bomb business?

Stress test

The plan has room, but sales softness and payroll timing are the pressure points. Base monthly revenue is about $27.1k against a roughly $10.7k break-even level, so the cushion is solid until demand slips or staffing jumps too early.

Stress Case Changed Assumption Break-Even Revenue Revenue Gap Risk Signal
Current plan No change. $10,714 $16,411 cushion Healthy cover over fixed costs.
Revenue shortfall Sales run 10% below plan. $10,714 $13,699 cushion Still above break-even, but slack shrinks.
Fixed-cost increase Year 2 staffing starts now, lifting fixed costs to about $14,920 a month. $19,370 $7,755 cushion Payroll timing is the main squeeze.
Margin pressure Variable expenses rise by 5 percentage points. $11,463 $15,662 cushion Small fee drift trims profit fast.
Combined pressure Sales fall 20% and variable expenses rise by 5 percentage points. $11,463 $10,237 cushion A weak sales month plus margin pressure cuts the buffer hard.

Can you prove the bath bomb business is ready for rent, equipment, and inventory before you commit?

Founder checklist

Check demand, margin, and cash before you lock in rent, equipment, and inventory. The plan only clears break-even if the first-year mix holds a $10.85 blended price, about 77% contribution margin, the cash left after direct costs, and enough volume to cover about 988 units a month.

1Demand proof30,000 units

Validate batch yield against the 30,000-unit Year 1 plan and the $10.85 blended selling price, so forecast sales do not hide weak sell-through.

2Margin check77% CM

Track the $1.20 unit ingredient-and-packaging cost plus revenue-based costs so margin stays near 77% and still funds overhead.

3Capacity ramp2,500/mo

Prove the workshop can make about 2,500 units a month before you hire, because break-even sits near 988 units a month.

4Fixed load$2.42K/mo

Keep the monthly base at about $2,420 and do not add Year 2 payroll until sales can support roughly $19,000 in break-even revenue.

5Cash cushion$1.187M

Hold the $1.187M minimum cash need through Month 2, since early capex and stock buys make the first cash dip the tightest point.

6Launch flow$54K launch

Check online store flow, wholesale pricing, fulfillment, refund handling, and reorder timing before you spend the $54,000 launch capex on fit-out, mixer, press, raw materials, website, molds, office gear, and content.