Beer Store Break-Even Analysis: $187K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $15.8K Core overhead

Contribution margin 84.5% Cash after variable

Break-even revenue $18.7K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 37 Crossover point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a beer store.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin pool that covers fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise as sales rise, like sourcing and payment fees. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $37,036 $43,520 revenue - $6,484 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base the store must cover before profit starts. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which shop expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only as reliable as the cost split behind it. Fixed overhead sets the monthly hurdle, while sales-linked fees and sourcing costs move with revenue and change contribution margin.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent ($3,500/month)	Fixed	Include the full monthly rent in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent by unit sold and hiding the true monthly hurdle.
Utilities ($800/month)	Semi-variable	Model a base monthly charge, then allow usage to rise as refrigeration load and store traffic grow.	Treating electricity as fully fixed when cooler use can climb.
Internet & Phone ($150/month)	Fixed	Keep the full monthly amount in fixed overhead for the planning range.	Linking it to sales volume without a usage driver.
Payment Processing Fees (2.5% in first year)	Variable	Apply as a percentage of sales because card fees rise with revenue.	Budgeting it as a flat monthly charge and overstating margin at higher sales.
Marketing & Event Supplies (5.0% in first year)	Variable	Treat as sales-linked spend tied to customer activity and events.	Locking the spend as fixed even when events and volume change.
Direct Sourcing Fees (5.0% in first year)	Variable	Apply against sales because sourcing fees rise with product volume.	Treating inventory-related purchases as fixed overhead.
Merchandise Cost (3.0% in first year)	Variable	Model as a percentage of merchandise sales, not as a monthly operating bill.	Putting product purchases into fixed expenses and distorting gross margin.
Store Manager and base Retail Staff	Semi-fixed	Hold base staffing steady, then step up labor when operating scale requires more coverage.	Treating all labor as variable and missing payroll needed before sales arrive.

How does break-even move from lean traffic to full sales for a beer store?

Scenario table

At 90% of break-even sales, the store still burns about $16k a month. At 110%, it adds about $16k a month, so the main job is keeping traffic, basket size, repeat orders, and mix above the line.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with foot traffic, basket size, repeat orders, and sales mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean traffic case	$168k	$26k	$158k	84.5%	-$16k	Sales sit below break-even, so cash burn stays high.
Base traffic case	$187k	$29k	$158k	84.5%	$0	This is the break-even line; any slip turns negative.
Full traffic case	$206k	$32k	$158k	84.5%	$16k	Sales above break-even create a small monthly cushion.

What pushes this beer store below break-even?

Stress test

The plan has little cushion. A 10% sales dip, a 3-point margin squeeze, or a 10% jump in fixed costs can each push the store below break-even; weak weekday traffic and shrink are the first things to watch.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$187k	$0 gap	Right on the line, so small dips hurt.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% from the plan.	$187k	$18.7k gap	That drop creates about a $16k monthly loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10%.	$206k	$19k gap	More rent or staff pushes the store under.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 3 points from 84.5% to 81.5%.	$194k	$7k gap	Supplier price pressure or shrink shows up fast.
Combined pressure	Monthly revenue falls 10%, margin drops 3 points, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$213k	$45k gap	That mix creates about a $37k monthly loss.

Can this beer store clear break-even before you lock the lease and stock the first case?

Founder checklist

Test the lease, staffing, and opening buy against the $187K monthly break-even before you commit. If the store cannot hold the $310K cash cushion and still reach break-even by Month 37, the plan is too heavy.

1Sales Bar$187K/mo

Verify the lease can support enough sales to clear the monthly break-even level, not just cover $3,500 rent.

2Fixed Load$15.8K/mo

Check that the starter team of 1 manager, 2 retail staff, and 0.2 bookkeeper FTE keeps monthly fixed costs near the model.

3Contribution84.5%

Confirm the Year 1 mix still leaves about 84.5% of revenue after sourcing, processing, and event supply costs.

4Staff Ramp1 / 2 / 0.2 FTE

Make sure the opening labor plan can handle Friday to Sunday volume without adding headcount too early.

5Launch Mix30/40/15/10/5

Test the first inventory order against the Year 1 sales mix so cash is not trapped in the wrong beer or merch.

6Cash Cushion$310K

Hold at least the minimum cash reserve, since the model does not reach break-even until Month 37 and payback lands in Month 55.