Bicycle Fitting Break-Even Analysis: $179K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $14.0K/mo Monthly fixed base

Contribution margin 78% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $17.9K/mo Revenue to cover base

Break-even timing Month 5 First break-even month

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed monthly costs against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that covers variable costs and fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with each fit and service sold. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $79,730 $99,167 revenue - $19,437 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean setup Heavier setup

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which bicycle fitting expenses are fixed, and which move with appointment volume?

Cost classification

Break-even works only if monthly overhead, payroll, marketing, and appointment-level expenses are modeled differently. In the first year, the base load is $4,850 studio overhead, $8,125 payroll, $1,000 marketing, plus 22% variable expense on revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Studio Lease	Fixed	Include in the $4,850 monthly studio overhead with utilities, insurance, booking software, certifications, cleaning, and maintenance.	Modeling rent alone and leaving smaller fixed overhead out of break-even.
Lead Fitter and Manager	Fixed	Include in Year 1 monthly payroll. Salary is $75,000 annually, or $6,250 per month at 1.0 FTE.	Treating the lead role as variable when it must be paid before appointments scale.
Assistant Fitter	Semi-fixed	Include in the Year 1 payroll load at 0.5 FTE, or $1,875 per month. Total Year 1 payroll is $8,125 per month.	Forgetting payroll steps when added capacity is needed for more fitting sessions.
Annual Marketing Budget	Semi-fixed	Use the Year 1 budget of $12,000 as $1,000 per month for break-even planning, then test CAC separately.	Letting marketing float only with sales instead of funding steady demand creation.
Component Inventory Cost	Variable	Apply as part of Year 1 appointment-level expenses. This line is 12% of revenue and moves with fitting volume and component sales.	Booking inventory as fixed overhead instead of tying it to customer activity.
Motion Capture Software Fees	Variable	Apply as 4% of Year 1 revenue in the 22% appointment-level expense load.	Treating usage-linked software as a flat subscription without volume impact.
Credit Card Processing Fees	Variable	Apply as 3% of revenue because it rises with paid appointments and customer charges.	Leaving processing fees out of contribution margin and overstating break-even profit.
3D Motion Capture System	Fixed	Keep the $15,000 system out of monthly operating break-even; it belongs in startup cash, runway, and payback analysis.	Treating the $74,000 startup setup as monthly overhead instead of a cash and payback item.

How does break-even change from launch to mature operations for a professional bicycle fitting studio?

Scenario table

Break-even gets harder as staffing and fixed overhead rise, but the higher-ticket mix keeps margin above 78% in every case. The business still has cushion in all three stages, though the mature stage needs the most monthly volume.

Planning case only; these figures use model assumptions, not guaranteed local demand.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Launch fit studio	$38,833	$8,543	$12,975	78.0%	$15,083	About 57 blended bookings cover the month, so the launch stage has little cushion.
Ramp fit studio	$74,417	$15,480	$16,433	79.2%	$39,083	About 70 blended bookings cover the month, so the ramp stage has a safer margin.
Mature fit studio	$170,417	$29,312	$21,767	82.8%	$112,167	About 87 blended bookings cover the month, so the mature stage can absorb demand swings better.

What pushes the bicycle fitting break-even plan off track?

Stress test

Year 1 revenue sits at about $38,833 a month against $17,917 of break-even revenue, so the plan has room. The main threats are softer demand, a 1-point margin drop, and higher studio overhead.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$17,917	$20,916 cushion	Revenue stays well above break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue slips to the $17,917 break-even level.	$17,917	$0 gap	No cushion remains; any further drop delays break-even.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly overhead rises by $1,000.	$19,199	$19,634 cushion	Rent or payroll creep raises the break-even line fast.
Margin pressure	Appointment-level expenses rise 1 point, cutting contribution margin to 77%.	$18,149	$20,684 cushion	Small fee or supply creep pushes break-even up.
Combined pressure	Monthly overhead rises $1,000 and contribution margin drops 1 point.	$19,431	$19,402 cushion	Demand softness plus overhead creep can slip Month 5 break-even.

Can this bicycle fitting studio clear break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Commit only if monthly bookings, pricing, and cash support the Month 5 break-even path. The model also assumes about $74K for equipment, fit-out, tools, hardware, inventory, displays, and furniture, plus a $820K Month 2 cash low and 11 months to payback.

1Booking target62/mo

Verify you can sell at least 62 blended bookings a month, or 50 premium fits, before you sign the $3,500 studio lease; that is the demand proof behind the break-even math.

2Fixed load$13.0K/mo

Check that the lease, base overhead, and pay stay covered by booked hours, because the Year 1 fixed load sits near $13.0K a month.

3Unit margin78% CM

Keep premium fit pricing at $120 an hour and hold the modeled 22% variable cost stack near plan, so each hour still leaves enough contribution to cover fixed costs.

4Staff ramp0.5 FTE

Hold the assistant fitter at 0.5 FTE in Year 1 and delay the coordinator until demand fills the calendar, or payroll will outrun bookings.

5Cash runway$820K

Protect the Month 2 cash low of $820K, because the model does not break even until Month 5 and only pays back after 11 months.

6Launch demand$12K / $45 CAC

Fund the $74K build-out first, then keep Year 1 marketing near $12,000 and CAC near $45 so launch demand can support Month 5 break-even.