Bison Farming Break-Even Analysis: $459K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $15.1K/mo Overhead base

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable load

Break-even revenue $18.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 17 Model crossover

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see where bison farming breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the sales base that creates room for fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise as sales and herd activity increase. $ Low direct costs High direct costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $698,000 $850,000 revenue - $152,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the overhead the business must cover each month. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which bison farm expenses are fixed, and which move with herd size and sales?

Cost classification

Break-even works only if fixed overhead, payroll steps, and volume-linked costs stay separate. Use $15.1k monthly ranch overhead, $267.5k first-year payroll, and an 18.5% first-year variable load before testing the Month 17 break-even point.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Land Lease Payments	Fixed	Include $10,000 per month inside ranch overhead.	Spreading land rent across each animal and hiding true overhead.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model first-year payroll separately at $267.5k, then step it up as FTE rises.	Treating labor as fully variable when staff is scheduled before sales land.
Veterinary Services Retainer	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month in the fixed break-even base.	Counting the retainer per head instead of as a standing monthly charge.
Farm Utilities and Insurance	Fixed	Include $2,000 per month in ranch overhead from utilities and property liability coverage.	Ignoring these small fixed lines because they don’t track meat sales.
Equipment Maintenance and Fencing Repairs	Semi-variable	Keep the $700 monthly base fixed, then add repair usage as herd pressure rises.	Putting winter wear, fencing repairs, and machinery strain fully into fixed overhead.
Meat Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 10.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 8.0% by the fifth year.	Treating processing as fixed when it rises with harvested animals.
Supplemental Feed Costs	Variable	Apply 4.0% of first-year revenue, then adjust with herd size and season.	Calling winter feed fixed even when animal flow drives the bill.
Packaging, Shipping, Hauling, and Sales Platform Fees	Variable	Use the modeled 4.5% first-year load from packaging, shipping materials, and sales platform fees.	Treating packaging, transport, and platform fees as fixed instead of sales-linked.

How does break-even move from a lean launch to a full bison ranch?

Scenario table

Break-even shifts as the herd grows, the DTC mix rises, and fixed costs spread across more output. The lean case is nearly flat, the base case sits just below break-even, and the full case has the best cushion.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with herd health, pricing, and sales mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch herd	$459k	$84.9k	$374k	81.5%	$0.1k	Near break-even, so a small cost spike can wipe out profit.
Base scale-up herd	$576k	$85.8k	$491k	85.1%	-$0.8k	Just under break-even, so small misses still keep you in the red.
Full mature herd	$613k	$82.8k	$530k	86.5%	$0.2k	Best cushion here, but fixed costs still absorb most of the gain.

What breaks the break-even plan for a bison farm?

Stress test

At the current plan, first-year break-even is about $459k, but a 10% sales miss, a 10% rise in fixed costs, or a jump in direct costs from 18.5% to 23.5% quickly pushes the farm back into a loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$459k	$0 gap	Break-even lands around Month 17, so cushion is thin.
Revenue shortfall	First-year revenue falls 10% to about $413k.	$413k	$37k gap	A small sales miss puts the farm back in the red.
Fixed-cost increase	Annual fixed costs rise 10% from about $374k to $411k.	$505k	$46k gap	Overhead pushes the sales bar much higher.
Margin pressure	Variable costs rise from 18.5% to 23.5% of revenue.	$489k	$30k gap	Processing, feed, and shipping take more of each dollar.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10% to $413k, annual fixed costs rise to $411k, and variable costs reach 23.5%.	$508k	$95k gap	Sales and cost pressure together erase the cushion fast.

What should you verify before you commit to the ranch, herd, and buildout?

Founder checklist

If you lock in the lease and start buying bison before these checks pass, cash can run out before sales catch up. Use this checklist to test fixed load, buildout, herd buy, buyer demand, and the Month 16 cash trough first.

1Fixed load$37.4K/mo

Confirm the ranch can carry the $10,000 lease and the $267,500 Year 1 payroll, because that fixed load runs before any sale hits the bank.

2Site build$190K

Verify fencing, corrals, and water are ready before the $150,000 land improvement and $40,000 water spend, or the herd cannot be handled safely.

3Herd stock$250K

Confirm the herd plan before the $250,000 initial stock buy, since Year 1 starts with 50 breeding females, one cycle each, and 10.0% juvenile losses.

4Margin gate81.5%

Secure processing access and check that meat, feed, marketing, and packaging still leave about 81.5% contribution before fixed costs.

5Buyer mix30% / 40%

Line up direct-to-consumer and wholesale buyers before assuming the Year 1 meat mix of 30.0% DTC and 40.0% wholesale will actually clear.

6Cash troughMonth 16 / $390K

Fund the Month 16 cash trough before launch spend, because the model bottoms at about negative $390,000 before breakeven in Month 17.