Brewery Break-Even Analysis: $407K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $14.8K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 83% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $17.8K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 14 Cash crossover

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly beer sales, variable costs, and fixed overhead against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that creates margin for fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use direct brewing, packaging, processing, and distribution costs that rise with sales. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $105,964 $127,333 revenue - $21,369 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use rent, payroll, and overhead that the margin must cover each month. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which brewery expenses are fixed, and which move with beer sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only when fixed costs, unit costs, and staffing steps are kept separate. If payroll steps get modeled like beer ingredients, Month 14 break-even can look cleaner than the operation really is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Brewery and Taproom Rent	Fixed	Use $7,500 per month from Month 1 through Month 60, regardless of barrels sold within the planning range.	Spreading rent per unit and making break-even look better as production rises.
Insurance	Fixed	Use $1,200 per month as recurring overhead in the fixed-cost base.	Tying insurance to production volume instead of treating it as monthly coverage.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Model the $2,500 monthly base separately from the $10 per-unit brewing utility charge.	Putting all utilities in fixed overhead and missing the usage drag as volume grows.
Malt, Hops, Yeast, and Packaging Materials	Variable	Apply ingredient and packaging assumptions to production and sales volume by beer style.	Using one flat margin across all beers when ingredient intensity differs by recipe.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.8% of sales in the first year, declining to 2.4% by the fifth year.	Leaving card fees out of contribution margin because they feel small per sale.
Wholesale Distribution Fees	Variable	Apply 2.0% of sales in the first year and second year, then lower rates in later years.	Treating distribution as fixed overhead instead of a sales-linked charge.
Taproom Staff	Semi-fixed	Step payroll from 1.0 FTE in the first year to 3.0 FTE in the fifth year as taproom volume expands.	Treating payroll steps like per-unit brewing inputs instead of capacity decisions.
Assistant Brewer	Semi-fixed	Add this role in Year 2 at 1.0 FTE with a $45,000 annual salary once production scale supports it.	Loading the role into Month 1 and overstating early break-even pressure.

How does break-even move from a lean start to full capacity?

Scenario table

As output scales, revenue grows faster than variable cost, so the cushion above break-even gets wider. Fixed payroll and rent still rise, so the business only stays safe if fee drag and labor growth stay controlled.

Planning case only; actual results will vary with sales mix, pricing, and cost control.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean case	$47.1k	$14.0k	$28.6k	70.2%	$4.5k	Revenue is only slightly above the $40.7k break-even mark, so cushion is thin.
Base case	$127.3k	$37.1k	$40.2k	70.9%	$50.1k	Revenue clears the $56.7k break-even mark by a wide margin.
Full-capacity case	$248.8k	$70.0k	$46.5k	71.9%	$132.3k	Revenue stays well above the $64.7k break-even mark, so cushion is strong.

What breaks the brewery's break-even plan?

Stress test

The Year 1 plan has about a $6,400 monthly cushion, so it works but it is not sturdy. A 10% sales dip or a 5-point margin hit almost wipes it out, and the combined stress turns that cushion into about a $3,800 gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$40,700	$6,400 cushion	Year 1 has a workable buffer.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue drops 10%.	$40,700	$1,200 cushion	Slower taproom traffic almost wipes out the buffer.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10%.	$44,700	$2,400 cushion	Extra payroll or overhead cuts the cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 5 percentage points.	$43,800	$3,300 cushion	Hops, packaging, or utility spikes push break-even up.
Combined pressure	Sales drop 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and margin falls 5 points.	$46,200	$3,800 gap	The plan flips from cushion to loss quickly.

Can this brewery clear break-even before you lock the lease and buy the brewhouse?

Founder checklist

Test whether the brewery can reach $40,700 in monthly revenue and still carry the $715,000 cash need through Month 13. The model does not hit breakeven until Month 14, so any shortfall before launch needs to be fixed first.

1Sales Target$40.7K/mo

Check that prelaunch demand can clear the $40,700 monthly break-even revenue target, because anything below that keeps the brewery in the red.

2Fixed Burn$14.8K/mo

Verify rent, utilities, insurance, software, marketing, permits, and professional fees stay near $14,800 per month so overhead does not outrun early sales.

3Margin Mix82.4%

Here’s the quick math: Year 1 revenue is $565,000, direct unit costs are $72,200, and payment plus distribution fees are $27,120, leaving 82.4% before fixed costs.

4Capex Plan$620K

Phase the $620,000 capex across the brewhouse, tanks, chiller, keg fleet, canning line, build-out, hardware, vehicle, and lab equipment so cash is not trapped before sales arrive.

5Launch Capacity600 units

Confirm cold storage and production can handle the Year 1 plan of 600 units, and keep taproom staffing at 1.0 FTE until wholesale sales load starts to grow.

6Cash Cushion$715K

Plan for at least $715,000 of cash by Month 13, because the model does not reach breakeven until Month 14 and the gap can sink the launch.