Brownfield Redevelopment Break-Even Analysis: Month 22 Target

Fixed costs $115.0K/mo Year 1 burn

Contribution margin 85% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $135.2K/mo Cover fixed burn

Break-even timing Month 22 Model payback point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly project revenue against direct project costs and fixed overhead to see how close the business is to break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month from project sales or fees. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with each project, like commissions and remediation contingency. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $270,000 $900,000 revenue - $630,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

30%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the business must cover before profit starts. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, variable, or semi-fixed for a brownfield redevelopment break-even model?

Cost classification

For this model, break-even is only useful if monthly carry stays fixed and sale-linked fees stay variable. Misclassifying payroll or exit costs can distort the Month 22 break-even point.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Headquarters Lease	Fixed	Include $12,000 per month in base burn from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying office rent to property sale volume.
Pollution Legal Liability Insurance	Fixed	Carry $8,500 per month even when remediation or sale timing slips.	Treating coverage as optional during project delays.
Environmental Monitoring Systems	Fixed	Keep $3,200 per month in recurring carry for compliance oversight.	Dropping monitoring before properties are sold.
Professional Legal Retainer	Fixed	Use the $15,000 monthly retainer in overhead, separate from site-specific legal work.	Blending project legal advice into the base break-even calculator.
Software and Data Subscriptions	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month as recurring operating support.	Removing subscriptions when no closing occurs that month.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Starts near $68,800 per month in the first year and rises as staffing steps up.	Modeling staff as fully variable with each property sale.
Brokerage and Sales Commissions	Variable	Deduct from sale proceeds: 5.0% in the first two years, 4.5% in the third year, and 4.0% in the fourth and fifth years.	Putting commissions into monthly overhead before a sale exists.
Remediation Contingency Fund	Variable	Apply as a sale-linked allowance, starting at 10.0% in the first year and declining to 5.0% by the fifth year.	Treating contingency as fixed burn instead of exit-margin pressure.

How does break-even shift from a lean site-control plan to a full seven-site buildout?

Scenario table

Lean keeps fixed overhead near $115k a month, so break-even lands around $135k of monthly revenue. Base and full buildout raise payroll and cleanup pressure, and sale proceeds are lumpy, so timing matters as much as scale.

Planning assumptions only; sale proceeds are lumpy, so monthly break-even is a coverage signal, not a guarantee.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean site-control plan	$135k	$20k	$115k	85%	-$9.7M	Early overhead leaves little cushion; a delay can widen losses fast.
Base Month 22 model case	$174k	$20k	$154k	88.5%	$13.7M	Month 22 break-even works, but cash still bottoms near Month 29.
Full seven-site buildout	$237k	$21k	$216k	91%	$32.1M	Best cushion in the model, but closing timing still drives the path.

What breaks this redevelopment’s break-even plan?

Stress test

The plan clears break-even only if monthly revenue stays near $135k. A 10% revenue slip, 10% higher fixed burn, or 80% margin each pushes it back under; the combined hit leaves about a $29k monthly operating gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$135,235/month	$0 gap	Break-even is met, but there is no cushion.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue lands 10% below the base plan.	$135,235/month	$11,495 gap	A small miss creates a monthly coverage gap fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed burn runs 10% higher.	$148,759/month	$13,524 gap	Higher carry pushes the break-even line up.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls to 80%.	$143,688/month	$8,453 gap	Cleanup and carry leave less room for error.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed burn rises 10%, and margin falls to 80%.	$158,056/month	$29,076 gap	This is the main stress case; a delay near Month 29 would strain cash.

What should the founder verify before committing capital to these sites?

Founder checklist

Before you buy, lease, or start cleanup, test whether the project can fund acquisition, remediation, construction, and carry without relying on perfect timing. Break-even lands in Month 22, but payback reaches Month 39, so the exit path has to work before major spend starts.

1Site Control$12.85M

Verify the owned-site purchase stack is fundable apart from the rented-site carry, so acquisition decisions do not blur into operating cash.

2Build Budget$28.9M

Check that the company can support the full construction budget, because that is the cash load that turns approvals into real spend.

3Cash Cushion-$10.627M

Test reserves against the minimum cash point in Month 29, because a late sale or a slow cleanup can break the model there.

4Crew CapacityMonth 6

Lock contractor capacity before the first build starts in Month 6, or the 10- to 20-month construction windows will slip and push the pipeline right.

5Carry Load$114.95K/mo

Make sure monthly carry can run through delays: $46.2K in fixed overhead plus about $68.8K in payroll, or $114.95K a month before site-level costs.

6Exit TimingMonth 39

Require a sale or lease-up path before remediation spend, because payback does not arrive until Month 39 and that gap decides investor return.