Burger Joint Break-Even Analysis: $745K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $28.7K/mo Fixed monthly base

Contribution margin 36% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $79K/mo Revenue to zero

Break-even timing Month 4 Forecast break-even point

Break-even calculator

Use this to test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs shape break-even for a burger joint.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with sales, like ingredients, promotions, and card fees. $ Low direct High direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $185,582 $213,815 revenue - $28,233 variable expenses

Margin ratio

87%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that sales must cover before profit starts. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which casual restaurant expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable when each expense follows the right behavior. Fixed rent and salaried leadership set the monthly hurdle, while ingredients, payment fees, and scheduled labor changes move as sales volume grows.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent/Lease Payment	Fixed	Use $10,000 per month in the break-even base from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent per cover and making slow weekdays look safer than they are.
Utilities	Fixed	Use the source treatment of $2,500 per month as fixed for the planning range.	Forcing utilities to rise with every cover without source data for usage tiers.
General Manager	Fixed	Use $6,250 per month based on the $75,000 annual salary and 1.0 FTE.	Treating management payroll as avoidable when weekday traffic is light.
Head Chef	Fixed	Use about $5,417 per month based on the $65,000 annual salary and 1.0 FTE.	Flexing chef payroll with sales even though the staffing plan keeps the role in place.
Servers/Bartenders	Semi-fixed	Use about $11,667 per month in the first year, then step up as FTE rises over time.	Treating payroll as fully variable when the first-year staffing plan carries 12.5 FTEs.
Food Ingredients	Variable	Apply 7.5% of sales in the first year, declining to 7.0% by the mature year.	Modeling ingredients as a flat monthly amount instead of tying them to sales.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Apply 4.0% of sales in the first year, declining to 3.0% by the mature year.	Locking promotions at one monthly budget and missing sales-linked spend.
Credit Card Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of sales across all five years because fees move with card volume.	Leaving processing fees out of contribution margin and overstating break-even cushion.

How does break-even change as this burger joint moves from a lean launch to base scale and full maturity?

Scenario table

As traffic and ticket size rise, revenue grows faster than variable costs, so the cushion gets wider. Year 1 already clears break-even, but the opening ramp still points to Month 4 for the first break-even month.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions, not guarantees, so the cash gap can move with traffic, mix, and wage timing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$115,100	$22,445	$60,000	80.5%	$32,655	Clears break-even, but the opening ramp still needs control.
Base scale	$213,800	$39,331	$66,300	81.6%	$108,169	Strong cushion; this is the cleanest balance of growth and risk.
Full mature case	$316,600	$55,405	$72,300	82.5%	$188,895	Largest cushion and the lowest break-even risk of the three.

What breaks the burger joint break-even plan if traffic softens or costs creep up?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even, but the cushion gets thin fast if weekday covers miss plan or labor stays full during slow shifts. A small sales dip or margin hit pulls the business much closer to the line.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Base case: $115,100 monthly revenue, $60,000 fixed costs, 19.5% variable expenses, and 80.5% contribution margin.	$74,500	$40,600 cushion	The model clears break-even, but the cushion is not huge.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to about $103,500.	$74,500	$29,000 cushion	A sales dip still covers fixed costs, but slow weekdays tighten the cushion fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Payroll-driven fixed costs rise 10% to about $64,300.	$79,900	$35,200 cushion	Labor creep pushes the break-even line up, so staffing discipline matters.
Margin pressure	Food or card fee pressure cuts contribution margin by 2 points to 78.5%.	$76,400	$38,700 cushion	Small input-cost pressure raises the sales needed to stay whole.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, contribution margin drops 3 points, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$85,200	$18,300 cushion	That still leaves about $14,200 monthly operating profit, but the cushion shrinks fast.

What should the founder verify before signing the lease and buying equipment?

Founder checklist

Do not sign the lease or buy the big equipment until the site can clear 600 Year 1 covers a week and hold a $74.5K monthly break-even load. If weekdays stay soft, the weekend rush will not cover the fixed base.

1Weekly covers600/week

Verify the site can reach 600 covers in the first operating year, because that is the traffic level the model needs before the lease feels safe.

2Break-even load$74.5K/mo

Confirm rent and all fixed costs can sit under the monthly break-even load, or the location needs more sales before it can support itself.

3Menu pricing$35 / $50 AOV

Check that average order value (AOV) can hold near $35 midweek and $50 on weekends, since that price mix makes the traffic plan work.

4Supplier quotes7.5% / 5.5%

Lock food and beverage quotes against the 7.5% food ingredients and 5.5% brewing materials assumptions, because higher input costs cut margin fast.

5Labor plan$43K/mo

Build the shift plan around the $43,000 monthly payroll reserve, so Friday and Saturday coverage does not break the margin.

6Cash reserve$376K by Month 7

Keep at least $376,000 of cash available through Month 7 while the $645,000 capex plan is still being spent, or a slow launch can stall the buildout.