Cannabis Edibles Bakery Break-Even: $318K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $25.9K/mo Base run-rate

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $31.8K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 14 Ramp to breakeven

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a cannabis edibles bakery.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Sales set the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like ingredients, marketing, and platform fees. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $55,131 $65,871 revenue - $10,740 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base contribution margin has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which bakery expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even in Month 14 is only reliable if each expense is tagged by how it behaves. Fixed bills must be covered monthly, while sales-linked costs rise with orders, batches, and production volume.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Use $5,000 per month for kitchen or retail space from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as flexible after the lease is signed.
Licensing renewals	Semi-fixed	Plan as recurring compliance overhead where applicable, with renewal timing built into the break-even model.	Leaving renewals outside break-even and understating compliance overhead.
Ingredient inputs	Variable	Use Year 1 Food Ingredients at 10.0% of revenue and Beverage Ingredients at 4.0% of revenue.	Ignoring waste, batch yield, and spoilage when pricing menu items.
Packaging	Variable	Tie packaging to units sold or batches produced so it rises with order volume.	Pricing items without packaging, labels, and carryout materials.
Batch testing	Semi-variable	Model testing as rising with production batches, not just total monthly revenue.	Treating testing as a one-time opening item.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $800 monthly base amount, then stress-test higher usage when production spikes.	Assuming utilities stay flat during heavier baking days.
Hourly bakers	Semi-fixed	Add labor in staffing steps as volume grows, similar to added cook and server FTEs in later years.	Hiring full shifts before demand supports the added payroll.
Business Insurance	Fixed	Use $300 per month from Month 1 through Month 60 in the fixed overhead base.	Excluding premium pressure tied to higher-risk food operations.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full-scale bakery volume?

Scenario table

Lean volume stays under break-even, base volume starts absorbing fixed costs, and full scale creates a wide cushion. The model reaches break-even in Month 14, with EBITDA moving from -$85K in Year 1 to $36K in Year 2 and $520K in Year 5.

Planning assumptions only; actual results can shift with traffic, pricing, ingredient costs, and labor mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening-year run-rate	$301K	$56K	$259K	81.5%	-$14K	Still below break-even, so cash burn stays tight.
Base Year 2 run-rate	$470K	$82K	$299K	82.5%	$89K	Past break-even, with enough margin to cover fixed costs.
Full Year 5 run-rate	$1.09M	$152K	$376K	86.0%	$557K	Strong cushion above break-even, with more room for reserves.

What breaks the break-even plan for this cannabis edibles bakery?

Stress test

The base plan still carries a small gap, so the bakery needs traffic to hold and batch costs to stay tight. A 10% sales miss, a 10% fixed-cost bump, or a jump from 185% to 215% variable expenses all push it farther underwater.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change; Year 1 revenue stays at $301K.	$314K	$13K gap	Weak weekday traffic is already the main watchpoint.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to about $271K.	$309K	$38K gap	A 10% sales miss leaves little cushion.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $285K.	$340K	$39K gap	Labor scheduled before demand locks in overhead.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 185% to 215% of revenue.	$323K	$22K gap	Batch testing overruns and packaging inflation squeeze margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, variable expenses rise to 215%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$343K	$72K gap	Traffic softness plus cost creep creates a real cash hole.

What should the founder verify before signing the lease and buying equipment?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or place major orders until the Year 1 sales path, fixed load, and cash cushion can support Month 14 break-even. The model still needs about $756K of minimum cash, and payback takes 40 months.

1Launch demand$30.1K/mo

Verify the opening mix can hold about 380 covers a week, or roughly $30.1K a month at Year 1 pricing, because that is the sales base needed to make Month 14 break-even believable.

2Lease load$310.6K/yr

Check that rent and base overhead stay at $7,050 a month and Year 1 payroll keeps total fixed load near $310.6K a year, because anything higher pushes the break-even line out.

3Menu margin88.3% CM

Lock supplier pricing before ordering inventory, because food and beverage ingredients plus marketing and platform fees add up to about 11.7% of sales in Year 1.

4Staffing ramp5.5 FTE

Match hiring to 5.5 full-time equivalents in Year 1, so payroll does not outrun the 380 weekly covers the site is built to serve.

5Runway$756K

Protect at least $756K of cash, because the model hits its low point in Month 25 and does not pay back until Month 40.

6Capex timing$90K

Stage the leasehold, kitchen, refrigeration, systems, furniture, and smallwares spend across Month 1 to Month 9, since the full build totals $90K before any sales come in.