Cannabis Drink Distribution Break-Even: $92K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $76.7K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 83.0% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $92.4K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 13 Model crossover

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a cannabis drink distributor.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that pays direct costs and overhead. $ Low revenue High revenue Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with more drink volume and delivery. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $73,992 $98,792 revenue - $24,800 variable expenses

Margin ratio

75%

Covers fixed costs

$2,291 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the margin has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales for a cannabis-infused beverage distributor?

Cost classification

Break-even gets cleaner when rent, retainers, and software stay fixed while delivery, commissions, and shrinkage move with revenue or units. Misclassifying 4.0% delivery fees or 2.5% commissions as overhead can overstate first-year margin.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Warehouse Rent	Fixed	Use $10,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating unused warehouse space as volume-driven.
Compliance & Legal Retainer	Fixed	Use $3,000 per month as required monthly overhead.	Ignoring state-specific compliance overhead.
Delivery Driver Team	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps: 2.0 FTE in Year 1, rising to 6.0 FTE by Year 5.	Treating all route labor as fully fixed.
Fleet Maintenance & Fuel	Semi-variable	Start with the $4,500 monthly baseline, then test added route frequency as volume grows.	Missing delivery frequency drag.
Logistics & Delivery Costs	Variable	Apply 4.0% of Year 1 revenue, falling to 2.8% by Year 5.	Burying freight in overhead.
Sales Commissions & Incentives	Variable	Apply 2.5% of Year 1 revenue, falling to 1.9% by Year 5.	Excluding shelf-space incentives.
Marketing & Brand Support	Semi-fixed	Use the $2,500 monthly baseline and add planned campaign steps only when approved.	Treating promotions as unlimited.
Spoilage, Returns, and Shrinkage	Variable	Use the 0.8% revenue-linked COGS allowance per product line.	Undercounting expired or damaged product.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full-scale route in cannabis-infused drink distribution?

Scenario table

Lean volume clears break-even by a thin margin, while higher volume lifts contribution faster than fixed overhead grows. The full-scale case has the widest cushion, but route density still needs testing because retailer count isn’t given.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with retailer mix, pricing, and delivery efficiency.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$98.8K	$16.8K	$63.6K	83.0%	$18.4K	Revenue is only modestly above break-even, so any slip hits fast.
Base case	$204.8K	$32.7K	$69.7K	84.0%	$102.4K	Break-even sits far below revenue, so the model has room.
Full scale	$899.2K	$126.3K	$96.6K	85.9%	$676.3K	Higher volume spreads overhead well, but route density still needs testing.

What breaks first if sales slip or costs creep up?

Stress test

At the base plan, the model has about a $69K monthly cushion. A 10% revenue miss or 10% overhead jump wipes most of it out, and 5 points of freight, spoilage, or discount pressure pushes break-even close to revenue.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change to revenue, fixed cost, or margin assumptions.	$919K	$69K cushion	Base case stays above break-even, but only by a thin margin.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to about $889K.	$919K	$30K gap	One weak reorder cycle can flip the month into loss.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $839K.	$1.011M	$23K gap	Overhead creep shows up fast when the cushion is small.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points, cutting contribution margin to 78%.	$978K	$10K cushion	Freight, spoilage, and discounts can erase the last cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and margin drops 5 points.	$1.076M	$187K gap	The month turns into about a $146K loss.

Can this cannabis drink distribution model cover the warehouse lease before you sign it?

Founder checklist

Test the lease, hiring, and inventory plan against break-even before you commit. If retailer demand, cash, and supply cannot support the model’s ~$919K monthly revenue target and $880K cash floor, wait.

1Demand cover$919K/mo

Verify retailer orders can support the model’s monthly break-even revenue before you sign the warehouse lease.

2Fixed load$24.2K/mo

Check that warehouse rent, software, compliance, insurance, and other fixed costs stay at this level so overhead does not outrun gross profit.

3Cash floor$880K

Hold enough working capital to survive the Month 12 low point, because the model’s minimum cash need is $880K.

4Launch capex$410K

Fund the full launch build, including $120K for two delivery vans and $35K for cold storage, before you start shipping.

5Supply lock5 drink lines

Confirm all five drink lines can ship on schedule before you buy inventory, or you will carry stock without enough sell-through.

6Route timing2 FTE

Delay route hiring until delivery frequency is proven, since Year 1 wages already total about $620K and staffing scales fast.