Caretaking Services Break-Even Analysis: $77K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $53.3K/mo Core overhead base

Contribution margin 82% After variable fees

Break-even revenue $65.0K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 18 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed monthly costs for a caretaking service against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash base that has to cover direct costs and overhead. $ Thin month Busy month Variable expenses These costs move with service volume, like referral commissions and hosting. $ Low direct High direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $143,933 $169,333 revenue - $25,400 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These are the monthly costs you pay even when bookings slow down. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which caretaking service expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable when stable overhead stays fixed and sales-linked fees move with revenue. For this model, payroll capacity is the big swing factor because break-even lands in Month 18.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Luxury Office Lease	Fixed	Include $6,500 per month in baseline overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as flexible when revenue misses plan.
Professional Liability Insurance	Fixed	Include $1,200 per month before calculating required recurring service revenue.	Leaving insurance out of the monthly break-even floor.
Software Subscription and CRM	Fixed	Include $850 per month as operating overhead, not a per-client charge.	Spreading the fee per client too early and understating losses.
Platform Hosting and Transaction Fees	Variable	Apply 8.0% of first-year revenue, so the charge rises as monthly billings rise.	Modeling the fee as flat even though it tracks revenue.
Client Referral Commissions	Variable	Apply 10.0% of first-year revenue as a sales-linked expense in contribution margin.	Counting referred revenue without the matching commission drag.
Vehicle Maintenance and Fuel	Semi-variable	Start with the $1,500 monthly base, then stress test higher route load as clients spread out.	Assuming travel effort stays flat as service density changes.
Management and Operations Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model payroll in staffing steps: manager, home manager, coordinator, and sales roles expand by FTE plan.	Treating labor coverage like it scales one client at a time.

How does break-even shift from a lean caretaking mix to the base and full service models?

Scenario table

Lean stays under break-even because the overhead load is too heavy for the lower retainer mix. Base turns positive, and full creates the clearest cushion as higher recurring retainers spread fixed staff and travel across more properties.

Planning cases only; actual results will move with property count, visit frequency, travel load, staffing, and service mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean security-heavy mix	$56.0K	$10.1K	$69.7K	82.0%	-$285K	Still below break-even; the lean mix can’t cover overhead.
Base recurring care mix	$121.8K	$20.1K	$93.0K	83.5%	$105K	Crosses break-even, but the cushion is still thin.
Full estate-management mix	$252.9K	$30.4K	$188.6K	88.0%	$408K	Best cushion; higher retainers and 10 Dedicated Home Managers spread overhead.

What breaks this break-even plan for a caretaking service?

Stress test

Year 1 revenue of $672K is about $348K below a roughly $1.02M break-even line. The plan is most exposed to slow retainer sales, low route density, and cost creep in labor, travel, and referral commissions.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$1.02M	$348K gap	Month 18 break-even leaves little room for slow client signing.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue falls 10% to $605K.	$1.02M	$415K gap	Slow retainer sales widen the gap fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises 10% from the current plan.	$1.12M	$449K gap	Extra rent or staffing pushes break-even above Year 1 revenue.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 18% to 23%.	$1.08M	$412K gap	More travel and referral fees eat contribution margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and variable expenses rise to 23%.	$1.19M	$589K gap	Low route density and early hiring can drain cash before break-even.

What should you verify before you commit to the fleet and first Home Managers?

Founder checklist

Don't lock in the fleet, office, or first Home Managers until recurring retainers can carry the $53.3K monthly base cost. The model does not break even until Month 18, and Year 1 EBITDA is still -$285K, so cash runway matters as much as revenue.

1Base Load$53.3K/mo

Verify recurring retainers can cover the monthly base cost before you add more staff or commit to fixed spending.

2Route Density$120K fleet

Check that enough homes sit on the same routes to justify the vehicle spend, or the fleet will drag payback.

3Unit Margin82% CM

Test the Year 1 mix of 40% Basic Security, 50% Comprehensive Care, and 10% Estate Management against 8% hosting and 10% referral costs.

4Staffing Ramp2→10 FTE

Add Dedicated Home Managers only when signed work can support the ramp from 2 FTE in Year 1 to 10 FTE in Year 5 at $85K each.

5Cash Cushion$332K min

Keep at least $332K of cash on hand, because the model bottoms out in Month 18 before break-even arrives.

6Launch CAC$120K / $1.5K

Verify the Year 1 marketing budget can still buy clients near the $1,500 CAC assumption before you scale spend.