Casino Hotel Break-Even Analysis: $135M Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $395K/mo Core overhead

Contribution margin 82.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $479K/mo Revenue floor

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this to see if monthly revenue covers direct costs and the casino hotel's fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in before direct costs and overhead. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These are the direct costs that move with sales, like gaming taxes, marketing, food and beverage COGS, and retail COGS. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $2,927,000 $4,182,000 revenue - $1,255,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

70%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base the contribution margin has to cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which casino hotel expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each bill follows the right driver. In this model, facility overhead, gaming fees, COGS, utilities, and payroll all behave differently, so don’t flatten them into one overhead bucket.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Property Operations & Maintenance	Fixed	Include $150,000 per month as a base operating load before revenue.	Treating building upkeep like it falls when occupancy dips.
Insurance	Fixed	Include $40,000 per month in the fixed cost base.	Spreading insurance as a percent of room or gaming revenue.
IT Systems & Software	Fixed	Include $30,000 per month while systems run across the property.	Cutting this with volume even though core systems stay live.
Licensing & Permits	Fixed	Include $10,000 per month as recurring compliance overhead.	Leaving permits out because they don’t feel operational.
Gaming Taxes & Fees	Variable	Apply 10.0% of revenue in the first year, then adjust by forecast year.	Burying gaming taxes inside generic overhead.
Food & Beverage COGS	Variable	Apply 3.0% of revenue in the first year as volume-driven COGS.	Modeling food inputs as fixed kitchen spend.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $80,000 monthly budget, then watch usage against occupancy.	Assuming power, water, and HVAC stay flat at every occupancy level.
Operating Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps, from 205 FTEs in the first year to 305 FTEs in Year 5.	Burying the payroll ramp inside one overhead line.

How does break-even change from lean to base to full operations at a casino hotel?

Scenario table

Lean Year 1 is tight because occupancy and room rates are lower, while payroll and property costs still stay high. By Year 5, higher occupancy and ADR lift revenue faster than variable costs, so the break-even cushion gets much wider.

Planning figures only. Actual results will move with occupancy, room mix, and gaming spend.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean operating case	$2.38M	$0.42M	$1.11M	82.5%	$0.85M	Revenue clears the ~$1.35M break-even line in Month 1, but the cushion is thin.
Base operating case	$3.43M	$0.56M	$1.28M	83.7%	$1.59M	Revenue clears the ~$1.52M break-even line with a solid cushion.
Full operating case	$4.41M	$0.65M	$1.44M	85.3%	$2.32M	Revenue clears the ~$1.69M break-even line and gives the widest cushion.

What breaks the casino hotel’s break-even plan?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even, but the cushion gets thin fast if occupancy softens, gaming win weakens, or payroll and security costs keep climbing. A revenue dip and fixed-cost step-up together can push the model close to the edge.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$135M	$125M cushion	Base plan clears break-even with room to spare.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 25% to $195M.	$135M	$60M cushion	Slower occupancy or weaker gaming win cuts the cushion fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed monthly costs rise to the Year 5 level of $144M.	$174M	$86M cushion	Payroll, security, and utilities push break-even higher.
Margin pressure	Gaming taxes, fees, and loyalty spend stay elevated.	$174M	$86M cushion	Margin squeeze makes the same revenue base work harder.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 25% and fixed costs rise to $144M.	$174M	$21M cushion	Lower demand plus higher overhead leaves very little slack.

Is this casino hotel ready before you lock the buildout and hiring plan?

Founder checklist

Only commit if the 400-room mix, Year 1 occupancy, and payroll ramp still work after the $37.0M buildout. The model shows positive EBITDA in Year 1, but cash still drops to -$30.1M in Month 7, so runway matters more than paper profit.

1Room mix400 rooms

Verify 200 standard, 120 deluxe, 60 suite, and 20 penthouse rooms still support the occupancy plan before you sign buildout spend.

2Occupancy ramp65%→86%

Verify Year 1 occupancy at 65.0% can climb to 86.0% by Year 5, because launch demand has to fill the floor before the room count matters.

3Fixed burn$1.11M/mo

Verify monthly fixed costs stay near $1.11M, with about $395k in overhead and $718k in wages, before you lock long-term commitments.

4Staffing ramp205→305 FTE

Verify headcount can rise from 205 FTE in Year 1 to 305 FTE in Year 5 only as demand grows, or labor will outrun occupancy.

5Cash trough-$30.1M / Month 7

Verify reserves can absorb the drawdown to -$30.1M in Month 7, because the buildout and operating ramp both hit cash before the hotel settles.

6EBITDA cushion$12.4M Y1

Verify Year 1 EBITDA of $12.4M can support the $37.0M capex stack and the 44-month payback, because profit on paper does not fund the opening alone.