Catfish Farming Break-Even Analysis: $727K/Month Target

Break-Even Metric Cards

Fixed costs $56.8K/mo Launch overhead

Contribution margin 80% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $71.0K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 17 Model break-even

Break-Even Calculator

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly catfish sales cover feed, packaging, payroll, and farm overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue More sales give you more gross profit to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Feed, packaging, and selling costs rise as revenue rises. $ Lean cost Heavy cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $60,000 $150,000 revenue - $90,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

40%

Covers fixed costs

$6,000 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base your gross profit must cover. $ Light overhead Full overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which catfish farm expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if feed, juveniles, and selling costs move with volume while facility costs stay fixed. Misclassifying feed as overhead can make Month 17 break-even look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Fish Feed	Variable	Model as 10.0% of revenue in the first year, declining with the forecast.	Treating feed like overhead instead of a volume-driven expense.
Processing Supplies	Variable	Model as 2.5% of revenue in the first year, tied to processed product volume.	Holding supplies flat while fillet and steak sales grow.
Packaging Materials	Variable	Model as 3.0% of revenue in the first year, tied to shipped and packed sales.	Forgetting packaging rises with every finished order.
Sales & Marketing	Variable	Model as 4.0% of revenue in the first year, then reduce per the forecast.	Budgeting it as a flat monthly spend during growth.
Purchased Juveniles	Variable	Use 10,000 juveniles at $0.65 each in the first year production cycle.	Missing the cash need before harvest revenue arrives.
Facility Maintenance	Fixed	Carry $5,000 per month from Month 1 through the planning period.	Reducing maintenance when sales are slow.
Insurance	Fixed	Carry $3,500 per month as a stable operating expense.	Linking insurance to fish volume instead of coverage needs.
General Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $1,000 monthly base; separate production power if usage tracks volume.	Putting all utilities in fixed overhead and hiding usage swings.

How does break-even change from a lean setup to a full catfish farming operation?

Scenario table

Scale lifts revenue and contribution, but fixed payroll and facility costs still stay ahead of sales in all three cases. The full model gets closest to break-even, yet it still runs a loss.

Planning assumptions only; small shifts in survival, feed, labor, or demand can move break-even.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean hatchery plan	$22,325	$4,895	$56,783	78.1%	-$38,811	Deep loss; fixed costs outpace contribution.
Base Year 5 plan	$53,680	$10,494	$75,367	80.4%	-$32,181	Better scale, but overhead still beats sales.
Full mature model	$109,142	$18,417	$99,700	83.1%	-$8,975	Closest to break-even, with only a small gap left.

What pushes catfish farming past break-even?

Stress test

The plan is fragile in the first year because $22,325 of revenue sits far below the $72,727 break-even level. Lower selling price, weaker harvest volume, higher feed and power use, and hiring ahead of sales can all widen the loss fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$72,727	$50,402 gap	Sales must close a wide gap before breakeven.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to $20,093.	$72,727	$52,634 gap	A small sales miss deepens the first-year loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $62,462.	$80,000	$57,675 gap	Overhead creep pushes the breakeven hurdle higher.
Margin pressure	Variable rate rises from 21.9% to 26.9%.	$77,700	$55,375 gap	Feed, power, or processing costs squeeze margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable rate rises to 26.9%.	$85,500	$65,407 gap	Sales softness and cost creep break the model fast.

What should you verify before you commit to building a catfish farm?

Founder checklist

Before you buy tanks, hire the full team, or stock fish, prove the farm can sell about $72.7K a month and still survive the opening cash dip. The model does not reach breakeven until Month 17, and cash bottoms near Month 16 at about -$2.27M.

1Buyer demand$72.7K/mo

Verify signed buyers or repeat orders can reach this sales run rate before major spend, because that is the line between growth and a cash drain.

2Operating load$56.8K/mo

Your fixed overhead is about $56.8K a month, and the core build list adds $2.05M, so do not commit until the sales plan can carry both.

3Margin base80.5% CM

After feed, processing supplies, packaging, and sales spend, each revenue dollar keeps about 80.5 cents, so the mix has to hold.

4Harvest cadence1 cycle/yr

Keep the first year tied to one production cycle and match processing labor and cold storage to the harvest, not the wish list.

5Cash cushion-$2.27M

The model's cash low lands in Month 16, so fund the build and working cash before you count on Month 17 breakeven.

6Launch pricing$7/$14/$12/$10

Price Year 1 whole dressed, fresh fillets, frozen fillets, and steaks at those levels and confirm buyers want the mix, or volume will not convert into cash.