Before you lock in the trucks and chutes, confirm the route book, pricing mix, and cash cushion can support break-even. If those three slip, the Month 20 payback model gets shaky fast.
1Route demand36 herdsVerify at least 36 active herd accounts with signed route commitments before you buy the $306K equipment stack, because the fleet only pays off once the route book is real.
2Add-on mix45% / 30%Check that therapeutic add-ons hold at 45% and initial herd assessments at 30% in Year 1, since that mix lifts monthly revenue above the base trim fee.
3Variable load90.5% CMKeep consumables at 4.5% and fuel and maintenance at 5.0% of revenue so the route still leaves enough contribution margin after drive time and supplies.
4Fixed load$9.1K/moKeep insurance, software, rent, legal, utilities, and certification renewals near the modeled $9.1K a month, or the break-even point moves up.
5Staff ramp$494K/yrAdd more crew only when route utilization can carry the Year 1 payroll stack of about $494K a year, because labor is the biggest fixed drag.
6Cash cushion$317KHold enough cash to survive the modeled $317K low point in Month 20, since EBITDA is still negative in the first two years.