Caviar Production Farm Break-Even Analysis: About $130K/Month

Fixed costs $103.8K/mo Monthly base cost

Contribution margin 80% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $129.7K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 2 Early ramp

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs move a caviar farm above or below break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Monthly sales set the margin pool that covers fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Feed, packaging, cold shipping, and sales costs rise with output. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $788,000 $952,000 revenue - $164,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Facility, payroll, and admin costs sit here each month. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which caviar farm expenses are fixed, variable, or capacity-driven at break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if fixed overhead stays separate from costs that move with volume. Here, don’t bury biology: first-year output loss is 8.0% and the replacement rate is 5.0%.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility lease and insurance	Fixed	Carry $12,000 per month before any unit margin is counted.	Spreading rent across units and hiding the monthly cash floor.
Administrative and software licenses	Fixed	Include $3,000 per month as recurring overhead.	Dropping back-office tools because they feel small.
Premium fish feed and nutrients	Variable	Model at 8.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 5.8% in the mature year.	Ignoring output loss when sizing feed against saleable units.
Direct processing and packaging materials	Variable	Apply 4.0% of revenue in the first year, improving to 3.0% in the mature year.	Using gross harvest volume instead of packed saleable output.
Cold chain logistics and shipping	Variable	Use 5.0% of revenue in the first year, then track the decline to 2.8% as scale improves.	Treating chilled delivery as overhead instead of order-linked spend.
Business-to-business sales commissions and marketing	Variable	Charge 3.0% of revenue in the first year, stepping down to 2.0% in the mature year.	Counting sales at list price without commission drag.
Recirculating aquaculture system energy consumption	Semi-variable	Start with the $15,000 monthly base, then stress test higher load as active heads rise.	Calling power fully fixed when stocking intensity can push usage higher.
Facility technicians, quality control, and production shifts	Semi-fixed	Add labor in steps as active heads grow from 5,000 to 45,000.	Scaling labor smoothly by revenue instead of hiring in real operating blocks.

How does break-even change from a lean caviar farm to a full-scale operation?

Scenario table

Lean sits just under break-even, base clears it, and full scale builds a wide cushion. The swing comes from fixed-cost absorption, while timing, yield, sell-through, compliance, and processing efficiency decide how much revenue turns into cash.

Planning case only: these figures are scenario assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean caviar farm	$1.25M	$249k	$1.04M	80.0%	-$43k	Sits just under break-even, so small slips still matter.
Base caviar farm	$2.16M	$418k	$1.04M	80.6%	$700k	Clears break-even and starts to absorb overhead.
Full caviar farm	$40.0M	$5.44M	$1.82M	86.4%	$32.74M	Creates a wide cushion if yield and processing hold.

What breaks first if caviar prices soften or roe yield slips?

Stress test

The base plan is close to break-even, with about a $41k gap. The main pressure points are weaker caviar prices, lower roe yield, higher energy or feed, slow sell-through, spoilage, and inefficient processing.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change in price, yield, or fixed costs.	$1,287k	$41k gap	Small misses can erase the cushion.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls to $1,121k from weaker prices or slower sell-through.	$1,262k	$141k gap	A sales miss quickly widens the loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $1,142k.	$1,391k	$145k gap	Energy or labor inflation pushes the farm red.
Margin pressure	Variable expense ratio rises 5 points from feed, spoilage, or processing waste.	$1,349k	$103k gap	Small yield losses hit EBITDA fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls, fixed costs rise, and margin weakens at the same time.	$1,546k	$300k gap	This is the failure zone if several levers slip.

What should you verify before locking the site and starting tank spend?

Founder checklist

Test the hard stop: if the farm cannot carry about $103.8K in monthly fixed burn and $96K in opening cash, the build is too early. Before you commit the $4.82M capex, make sure site, power, buyers, and staffing line up.

1Site Control$4.82M capex

Lock site control and backup power before tank spend so the $2.5M RAS build, the $300K broodstock plan at $150 per head, and the rest of the $4.82M listed capex do not land in a weak facility.

2Buyer Pipeline5,000 heads

Line up buyers before premium inventory is harvested, because Year 1 starts with 5,000 active heads and the clean room has to clear that output.

3Burn Load$103.8K/mo

Check that you can fund about $103.8K a month in fixed burn, since lease, utilities, lab, admin, and wages run before sales do.

4Margin Check80% CM

Hold contribution margin near 80% by locking feed supply, packaging, shipping, and commission terms, or the Month 2 break-even math slips.

5Staffing Ramp9 FTE

Verify the first-year team can run water-quality monitoring, biosecurity testing, and the processing clean room with about 9 FTE, because the model still shows 8.0% output loss in Year 1.

6Cash Cushion$96K cash

Keep at least the $96K opening cash shown by the model, because a sales delay can push the farm back into burn before break-even.