CBD Store Break-Even Analysis: $27K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $21.7K Base monthly overhead

Contribution margin 80.1% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $27.1K Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 33 Model crosses here

Break-even calculator

See how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs shape break-even for this CBD store.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash that has to cover store costs and leave room for profit. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with sales, like inventory, card fees, and commissions. $ Low direct High direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $34,000 $41,600 revenue - $7,600 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These are the monthly overhead costs the store must cover before profit starts. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which store expenses are fixed and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works when stable overhead stays fixed and sales-linked items reduce contribution margin. Misclassifying payroll or inventory can make the Month 33 break-even target look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commercial Lease	Fixed	Put the $4,500 monthly rent into fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as a percentage of sales, which understates losses in slow months.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $750 monthly base, then split out any usage-linked change if bills rise with traffic.	Forcing the whole bill into fixed overhead when higher store hours may add usage.
Store Manager, Wellness Consultant 1, and Owner/General Manager	Fixed	Include base payroll of $180,000 per year, or $15,000 per month, in fixed overhead.	Modeling core salaries as variable just because sales staff serve customers.
Added Wellness Consultant	Semi-fixed	Add this payroll step when the second consultant starts at Month 19, with 0.5 FTE in the second year and 1.0 FTE after that.	Smoothing the hire across all months, which hides the staffing threshold.
Part-time Sales Associate	Semi-fixed	Add this staffing layer from Month 25, rising from 0.5 FTE in the third year to 1.0 FTE in the fifth year.	Booking the role as variable commission instead of a capacity step.
Wholesale Product Inventory	Variable	Reduce contribution margin by inventory sold, starting at 13.9% of sales in the first year and falling to 12.0% by the fifth year.	Using inventory purchases for margin; buys affect cash timing, while inventory sold affects break-even.
Third-Party Lab Testing	Variable	Reduce contribution margin by testing expense, starting at 2.0% of sales in the first year and falling to 1.2% by the fifth year.	Putting testing in fixed overhead when it should scale with product sales.
Payment Processing Fees and Sales Commissions	Variable	Reduce contribution margin by sales-linked fees: processing starts at 2.5% of sales, and commissions stay at 1.5%.	Leaving these out of contribution margin, which overstates profit per order.

How does break-even change across a lean launch, base store, and fuller staffed store?

Scenario table

These are break-even thresholds, not sales promises. Higher staffing pushes the monthly sales bar up, while average order value still depends on product mix, unit prices, and units per order; weak traffic can still delay payback.

Planning assumptions only; traffic, basket size, and staffing can move results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Launch	$27.1k	$5.4k	$21.7k	80.1%	$0	Lowest fixed load, but traffic still has to clear the hurdle.
Base Store	$32.1k	$5.9k	$26.2k	81.6%	$0	Second consultant lifts the bar, so steady traffic matters more.
Fuller Staffed Store	$32.9k	$5.5k	$27.4k	83.2%	$0	Part-time help adds cost, but stronger baskets can protect the cushion.

What breaks the break-even plan for this CBD store?

Stress test

The store breaks even at about $27.1k a month on $21.7k of fixed overhead and an 80.1% contribution margin. A 10% revenue miss or a 5-point margin drop pushes stress fast; Month 36 is the cash low point at $340K.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change in revenue, margin, or fixed overhead.	$27,129	$0 gap	This is the base case; any miss shows up fast.
Revenue miss	Revenue lands 10% below break-even.	$27,129	$2,173 gap	A 10% miss leaves little cushion before extra costs.
Fixed cost rise	Fixed overhead rises 10% to $23,903 a month.	$29,842	$2,713 gap	Higher rent or payroll pushes break-even up fast.
Margin squeeze	Contribution margin falls 5 points to 75.1%.	$28,935	$1,806 gap	Card fees or discounting can move break-even higher.
Combined stress	Fixed overhead rises 10% and margin falls to 75.1%.	$31,828	$5,566 gap	Traffic, fees, and payroll all need tighter control.

Can this CBD store clear break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Here’s the quick math: Year 1 traffic and basket math point to about $9.0K a month in sales, while break-even needs $27,129 a month. If opening demand can't close that gap, the rent and payroll stack will outrun cash before Month 33.

1Demand target$27,129/mo

Test whether opening traffic, 12% conversion, and the Year 1 basket can bridge the forecasted $9.0K a month to this sales level before you commit to build-out.

2Lease load$4.5K/mo

Make sure the lease stays at the assumed $4,500 a month, because fixed overhead already runs about $6,730 a month before payroll.

3Margin stack80.1% CM

Confirm the Year 1 cost stack stays near 13.9% inventory, 2.0% lab testing, 2.5% payment fees, and 1.5% commissions, because that leaves about 80.1% contribution margin before rent and wages.

4Product mix35/30/20/10/5

Validate the tincture, edible, topical, pet, and beverage mix, because those shares shape basket size, shelf space, and how much inventory you have to buy.

5Labor ramp3 FTE

Verify the opening schedule can support the owner, manager, and first consultant, because Year 2 starts the second consultant and Year 3 adds a part-time sales associate.

6Cash cushion$340K

Hold enough cash to survive to Month 33 break-even and Month 55 payback, because the model still shows a $340K minimum cash trough in Month 36.