Chainsaw Art Break-Even Analysis: $123K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $8.2K/mo Opening base load

Contribution margin 70% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $11.7K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 5 Model payback point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a chainsaw art carving service.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct costs rise with each job, event, and sale. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $58,475 $79,667 revenue - $21,192 variable expenses

Margin ratio

73%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead break-even has to cover. $ Tight overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which chainsaw art service expenses are fixed, and which move with commissions, events, travel, and shop activity?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only when each expense follows its real behavior. Treating travel, supplies, or added help as fixed will overstate margin and make Month 5 break-even look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Workshop Rent	Fixed	Use $1,800 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Lowering it when sales dip.
Liability Insurance	Fixed	Use $350 per month as recurring overhead in break-even.	Treating it like a per-event charge.
Timber and Raw Materials	Variable	Apply 12% of revenue in the first year, falling to 10% by Year 5.	Forgetting large logs scale with commissions.
Fuel and Finishing Supplies	Variable	Apply 6% of revenue in the first year, falling to 4% by Year 5.	Treating bar oil and finishing supplies as free labor.
Travel and Logistics	Variable	Apply 8% of revenue in the first year, falling to 6% by Year 5.	Ignoring delivery miles for event gigs.
Equipment Maintenance	Variable	Apply 4% of revenue in the first year, falling to 3% by Year 5.	Leaving replacement chains out of job margin.
Utilities and Power	Semi-variable	Start with the $250 monthly base, then watch shop use as carving hours rise.	Assuming higher shop activity never raises the bill.
Studio Assistant	Semi-fixed	Add capacity in steps: 0.5 FTE in Year 2, then 1.0 FTE from Year 3.	Modeling labor as smooth with every sale.

What happens to break-even as bookings move from lean to base to full?

Scenario table

Break-even moves up as the shop adds help and event support. Year 1’s 50/30/20 mix still clears it, but with a slim cushion, while Year 2’s higher volume and EBITDA widen the gap.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will shift with booking mix, pricing, and overhead.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean break-even floor	$11.7k	$3.5k	$8.2k	70.0%	$0	This is the floor; one weak month can turn loss.
Base Year 1 mix	$23.6k	$7.1k	$8.2k	70.0%	$8.3k	Year 1 stays above break-even, but the cushion is thin.
Full Year 2 schedule	$50.8k	$14.4k	$9.7k	71.7%	$26.8k	Higher volume and a better mix give more room above break-even.

What breaks this chainsaw art break-even plan?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even, but the cushion shrinks fast if demand drops, fuel and materials run hot, or fixed overhead rises early. Long travel, unpriced delivery, slow deposits, and early hiring are the main stress points.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$123k	$113k cushion	The plan clears break-even with room left.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 25%.	$123k	$54k cushion	Demand softens, but the plan still stays above break-even.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 20%.	$147k	$89k cushion	Extra overhead cuts the buffer and raises cash risk.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 30% to 35%.	$132k	$104k cushion	Higher fuel and materials trim margin, but break-even still holds.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 40%, variable expenses hit 35%, and fixed costs rise 20%.	$159k	$17k gap	This mix flips the plan to about an $11k operating loss.

What should you verify before you lock in the workshop, truck, and first hires?

Founder checklist

Don't lock in the workshop, truck, or first hires until demand, margin, and cash all clear the model. For this business, the gate is about $123K a month in booked or strongly qualified work, near 70% contribution margin, and enough cash for the Month 2 low point plus $84K of startup capex.

1Demand Proof$123K/mo

Verify you can book or strongly qualify at least $123K a month and keep Year 1 customer acquisition cost near $150, or launch demand will not support the fixed load.

2Margin Gate70% CM

Price jobs so timber, fuel, finishing supplies, travel, and maintenance still leave about 70% contribution margin, which is the cushion that pays the fixed bills.

3Fixed Load$2.79K/mo

Treat workshop rent at $1,800 and liability insurance at $350 as the first fixed load, then add utilities, software, vehicle insurance, and dues only when booked work can cover the full monthly cost.

4Transport SetupMonth 1

Before live carving and event bookings, verify safe storage and transport for logs, tools, and finished pieces so one damaged job does not wipe out the margin.

5Hiring RampYear 2

Delay the studio assistant until Year 2 volume can support the added payroll, because the opening year does not need that cost to reach break-even.

6Cash Buffer$818K

Hold enough cash to cover the Month 2 low point and the $84K startup capex, because the model’s minimum cash need is $818K.