Craft Cidery Break-Even: $42K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $32.4K Base monthly burn

Contribution margin 76.6% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $42.3K Revenue at zero

Break-even timing Month 14 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly cider sales can cover variable costs like ingredients and packaging plus fixed payroll and facility costs.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Higher sales create more margin to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with cider, flights, cans, bottles, and taproom volume. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $94,883 $117,500 revenue - $22,617 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead your contribution margin has to cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales for this cider producer?

Cost classification

Break-even gets cleaner when unit inputs stay variable and monthly commitments stay fixed. Misclassify labor, utilities, or taproom supplies, and Month 14 break-even can look safer than it really is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Unit materials: apples, yeast, cans, bottles, corks, labels, carriers, glassware, garnishes, fabric, printing ink, and tags	Variable	Apply against each sale or production unit before contribution margin.	Treating taproom and packaging supplies as a fixed monthly bucket.
Direct labor	Variable	Include labor that rises with production or serving volume in unit economics.	Burying direct labor inside overhead when it moves with volume.
Facility lease at $5,000 per month	Fixed	Count the full monthly lease in the fixed hurdle every month.	Spreading rent per bottle and letting it fall when sales drop.
Property insurance at $1,200 per month	Fixed	Carry the recurring monthly premium outside contribution margin.	Modeling insurance as a percent of sales.
Licensing compliance at $500 per month	Fixed	Include the monthly compliance load in fixed operating expense.	Leaving it out until a renewal month.
POS software fees at $400 per month	Fixed	Keep the software subscription separate from sales-based card fees.	Mixing software fees with credit card fees.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Model the $1,500 base charge plus production utility inputs that rise with output.	Using one fixed utility line and missing usage swings.
Taproom payroll	Semi-fixed	Hold staffing flat until open days, shifts, or traffic require another staffing step.	Forcing payroll to rise smoothly with every flight sold.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to a full cidery build?

Scenario table

Lean starts short of break-even, base clears it, and full gives the widest cushion. Higher volume lifts contribution faster than fixed costs, so the taproom gets safer as packaged sales scale.

These are planning assumptions, not guarantees; actual results will move with mix, pricing, and taproom traffic.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch cidery	$32.9K	$7.7K	$32.4K	76.6%	-$7.2K	Needs about $9.4K more each month.
Base break-even cidery	$65.4K	$14.4K	$43.2K	78.0%	$7.8K	Clears break-even with about $10.0K monthly cushion.
Full scaled cidery	$117.5K	$22.6K	$49.5K	80.8%	$45.5K	Strong overhead coverage and room for growth.

What breaks the cidery break-even plan if sales slip or costs rise?

Stress test

Year 2 leaves a cushion, but it is not wide. A 10% sales miss, a 10% jump in fixed overhead, or a 5-point drop in contribution margin can shrink that buffer fast, especially if taproom traffic softens and apple, packaging, or wage costs rise.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Year 2 holds at plan, with about 78% contribution margin.	$55,385	$10,032 cushion	There is a cushion, but it is not large.
Revenue shortfall	Year 2 revenue runs 10% below plan.	$55,385	$3,490 cushion	A weak taproom month cuts the buffer fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly fixed overhead rises 10%.	$60,923	$4,494 cushion	Higher payroll or rent pushes break-even up.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 5 points to 73%.	$59,178	$6,239 cushion	Higher apple and packaging costs narrow the spread.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 10%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and margin falls 5 points.	$65,096	$6,221 gap	This turns the month into about a $4.6K operating loss.

Can this cidery clear break-even before you sign the lease and spend on buildout?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease until the $5,000 monthly rent, $253K Year 1 payroll, and $440K of buildout capex still make sense against the $423K Year 1 break-even revenue. Year 1 forecast revenue is $395K, so you need a real plan to close the gap.

1Lease load$5K/mo

Sign the lease only if the rent still fits a plan built to the $423K Year 1 break-even revenue, not just hoped-for weekend traffic.

2Payroll load$253K/yr

Check that the Year 1 staffing plan can carry the taproom and production workload without adding headcount before sales catch up.

3Capex stage$440K

Stage the tanks, press, kegging, canning, bottling, bar build, furniture, POS, signage, and cooler so cash stays usable for opening.

4Demand gap$395K vs $423K

Year 1 revenue is below break-even by $28K, so the launch plan has to lift sales before you count on Month 14 coverage.

5Supply capacity31K units

Confirm suppliers can cover 20,000 dry cider units, 6,000 flights, 3,000 can packs, and 2,000 bottles in Year 1.

6Cash buffer$738K

Hold enough seasonal cash through Month 24, when minimum cash peaks at $738K, because break-even does not mean the bank balance is safe.