Cocktail Bar Break-Even Analysis: $508K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $12.6K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $15.6K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 3 Launch ramp

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a cocktail bar.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the cash available to cover drinks, labor, rent, and overhead. $ Low sales Busy month Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with sales, like ingredients, fees, and promo spend. $ Tight costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $99,256 $123,300 revenue - $24,044 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base the bar has to cover before profit starts. $ Small base Large base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which cocktail bar expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets useful only when stable bills stay fixed and sales-linked spend moves with revenue. Keep one-time buildout and equipment purchases outside operating break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent/Lease Payment	Fixed	Use $8,000 per month in fixed overhead.	Treating rent as sales-based.
Food Ingredients Cost	Variable	Apply 12.0% of sales in the first year.	Using a flat dollar amount per month.
Beverage Ingredients Cost	Variable	Apply 5.0% of sales in the first year.	Blending beverage spend into food margins.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of sales in the first year.	Putting card fees in fixed overhead.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Use 0.0% of sales in the first year, rising to 3.0% by Year 5.	Assuming launch marketing never changes.
Servers/Bartenders	Semi-variable	Start with about $5,833 per month in Year 1, then increase as FTE count rises.	Modeling all labor as fixed.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Use the $1,500 monthly baseline, then add usage only if bills rise with covers.	Ignoring traffic-driven utility swings.
Business Insurance	Semi-fixed	Use $300 per month until coverage needs step up with scale.	Making insurance a percent of sales.

How does break-even change from opening to mature service as covers and ticket size rise?

Scenario table

Break-even moves up as sales grow because fixed payroll and overhead also rise. The mature case makes more revenue, but it also needs a higher revenue floor to cover the bigger team.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with sales mix, labor, and overhead.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening case	$145,925	$28,455	$40,883	80.5%	$76,587	Revenue sits far above the opening break-even floor.
Base stabilized case	$247,542	$49,013	$47,342	80.2%	$151,187	Still well above break-even, with labor as the main drag.
Full mature case	$353,708	$67,205	$53,800	81.0%	$232,703	Strong cushion, but higher staffing keeps the revenue floor up.

What pushes a cocktail bar back below break-even?

Stress test

Year 1 revenue runs about $145,925, so the bar has a $95,138 cushion over the $50,787 break-even point. If break-even slips past Month 3, cash gets tight because minimum cash need peaks at $731,000 in Month 2.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$50,787	$95,138 cushion	Healthy cushion, but sales still need to stay near plan.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue falls 66% from the run-rate.	$50,787	$1,172 gap	A small extra drop pushes the bar under break-even.
Fixed-cost increase	Monthly fixed overhead rises by $5,000.	$56,997	$88,928 cushion	Every $1,000 of overhead adds about $1,242 to break-even, and payroll is already the bigger fixed load.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise by 3 percentage points.	$52,752	$93,173 cushion	Each extra point in variable cost adds about $1,459 of monthly pressure.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 66%, fixed overhead rises $5,000, and variable expenses rise 3 points.	$59,203	$9,588 gap	Cash risk jumps because minimum cash need peaks at $731,000 in Month 2.

Can this cocktail bar really clear break-even by Month 3?

Founder checklist

Before you lock the site, check that weekend demand, the $12,550 monthly overhead load, and the $731,000 Month 2 cash floor all fit a Month 3 break-even path. Keep the $235,000 buildout separate from working cash.

1Weekend demand270/435 wk

Verify Friday through Sunday can deliver 270 of 435 Year 1 weekly covers, because those three nights carry the model.

2Fixed overhead$12.55K/mo

Confirm rent, CAM, utilities, insurance, software, cleaning, and repairs stay at $12,550 per month before you commit to the site.

3Payroll ramp$28.33K/mo

Test whether Year 1 staffing fits $28,333 per month before any extra shifts, since labor can break cash fast.

4Unit margin80.5% CM

Check that food at 12.0%, beverages at 5.0%, and processing at 2.5% keep contribution margin near 80.5%.

5Cash buffer$731K min

Make sure you can hold the Month 2 minimum cash need of $731,000 without using operating cash for the $235,000 startup capex.

6Break-even volume22/night

Validate the room can average 22 covers per night so the bar can reach break-even by Month 3, not just on peak nights.