Coffee Roasting Break-Even Analysis: $25K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $19.8K/mo Base run rate

Contribution margin 79.3% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $25.0K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model hit point

Break-even calculator

See how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs stack up against break-even for a coffee roasting business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the money base that has to cover direct costs and overhead. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with each roast, bag, and sale. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $120,735 $148,200 revenue - $27,465 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that break-even has to cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which coffee roasting expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

The model reaches break-even in Month 2, but that only holds if fixed costs stay fixed and volume-linked costs move with bags sold. One blended per-bag cost can hide margin by pack size.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Green Beans	Variable	Tie directly to bags and pounds sold by pack size.	Treating bean buys as overhead.
Bag, Label, and Shipping Material	Variable	Apply per-unit material rates by 12oz, 2lb, 5lb, and 10lb formats.	Ignoring pack-size differences.
Roasting Labor per Unit	Variable	Use the per-unit labor amounts in cost of goods sold.	Double-counting it with payroll.
Roastery Rent	Fixed	Carry $3,500 per month across the planning range.	Spreading it per bag too early.
Utilities Gas & Electric	Semi-variable	Model the $800 monthly base plus roast-usage allocations.	Treating gas and electric as flat forever.
Equipment Maintenance Allocation	Semi-variable	Include the revenue allocation, including 0.3% where assigned in the first year.	Missing higher upkeep at volume.
Packaging & Fulfillment Staff Payroll	Semi-fixed	Step from $40,000 at 1.0 FTE in the first year to 3.0 FTE by Year 5.	Hiring before volume.
Insurance	Fixed	Carry $250 per month as recurring operating overhead.	Linking it to each order.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to a full coffee roasting scale?

Scenario table

Break-even moves when revenue, variable costs, and payroll move together. CM ratio is the share left after variable costs, so higher fixed staffing can push break-even up even when sales grow.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$249k	$51k	$198k	79.5%	$0	Near zero operating profit, so small demand swings matter.
Base Year 1 mix	$52k	$10.7k	$22k	79.5%	$19.3k	Month 2 break-even, so the early cash gap matters more than the margin.
Full Year 5 scale	$290.7k	$53.8k	$43.2k	81.5%	$193.7k	Wide cushion at Year 5, but extra hiring can push break-even up fast.

What breaks first if bean costs rise or sales slow?

Stress test

Contribution margin, the share left after variable costs, is the main pressure point. Base case clears break-even, but stacked pressure cuts the cushion to about $82k.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change; base revenue stays about $520k a month.	$249k	$216k cushion	Base plan clears break-even, but bean and labor costs still need control.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 20% to about $416k a month.	$249k	$133k cushion	A sales miss cuts the buffer fast, so wholesale and subscription onboarding matter.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 15% to about $228k a month.	$286k	$185k cushion	Higher rent, utilities, or headcount push the line up.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin, the share left after variable costs, falls 5 points to 74.5%.	$265k	$189k cushion	Bean price spikes or packaging inflation can erase room fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, fixed costs rise 15%, and margin drops 5 points.	$306k	$82k cushion	Stacked pressure leaves only a thin buffer, so sell-through and labor control matter.

What should a coffee roasting founder verify before signing the lease and buying the roaster?

Founder checklist

Before you sign the lease or buy the roaster, test whether Year 1 demand, the fixed monthly burn, and the cash plan can survive slower sell-through. Month 2 break-even is a planning signal, not a guarantee, so the real check is whether volume, margin, and working capital still hold.

1Demand proof15,000 units

Confirm Year 1 demand can absorb 15,000 total units across D2C, wholesale, and subscription before you commit to the lease.

2Fixed load$19.9K/mo

Check the monthly burn from rent, utilities, insurance, web, accounting, office, and base payroll so you know the floor you must cover.

3Margin mix80.7% CM

Run the Year 1 blend at about 80.7% contribution margin, because green beans, labor, bags, fulfillment, and fees still have to fund overhead.

4Staffing rampMonth 13

Match the roaster and line to Year 1 volume and keep extra sales hires off payroll until revenue can support them, since the model adds marketing in Month 13 and customer service in Month 25.

5Launch setup4 formats

Lock bean sourcing, packaging, workflow, and quality control for 12oz, 2lb, 5lb, and 10lb bags before launch month so fulfillment and repeat sales do not stall.

6Cash cushion$1.146M

Hold enough cash for the $152K capex stack and early working capital, because minimum cash bottoms at $1.146M in Month 2.