Coffee Shop Break-Even Analysis: $357K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $28.8K/mo Monthly base load

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $35.7K/mo Revenue needed

Break-even timing Month 3 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue against variable costs and fixed overhead for a coffee shop.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin left to cover fixed costs. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These are direct costs that move with sales, like ingredients, packaging, and card fees. $ Low cost High cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $95,970 $116,480 revenue - $20,510 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin must cover. $ Lean base Big team

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which coffee shop expenses are fixed and which move with sales for break-even?

Cost classification

Your Month 3 break-even only holds if rent, payroll, materials, and fees are classified correctly. Fixed items must stay in the model even when sales are slow, while true variable items should move with revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent & Lease Payments	Fixed	Include $3,500/month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Dropping rent in slow months.
Store Manager, Head Baker, Assistant Bakers, and Baristas / FOH Staff	Fixed	Use about $23.4k/month in first-year payroll: $281k annual payroll divided by 12.	Treating scheduled staffing as optional.
Raw Ingredients	Variable	Model at 12.0% of first-year revenue, then lower to 10.0% by the fifth year.	Using a flat dollar amount instead of sales volume.
Packaging Supplies	Variable	Model at 3.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 2.0% by the fifth year.	Forgetting packaging rises with each order.
Credit Card Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of first-year revenue, falling to 2.0% by the fifth year.	Putting payment fees in fixed overhead.
Delivery Platform Commissions	Variable	Apply 2.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 1.5% by the fifth year.	Ignoring delivery mix when sales grow.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $600/month base, but let usage rise with hours and equipment load.	Keeping power, water, and gas flat forever.
Cleaning Services	Semi-fixed	Use $300/month until traffic forces more service hours or more visits.	Scaling cleaning penny-for-penny with revenue.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full-service coffee shop?

Scenario table

Break-even shifts as traffic, ticket size, and mix move from lean to full service. Higher revenue brings a bigger cushion, but it also needs more labor and tighter execution to keep the gap open.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions from the model, not guaranteed results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch coffee shop	$691k	$135k	$288k	80.5%	$268k	Above break-even, but traffic must hold.
Base neighborhood café	$1.07m	$188k	$345k	82.4%	$535k	Best balance point; break-even risk is lower.
Full-service mature shop	$1.51m	$234k	$394k	84.5%	$879k	Strong cushion, but only if capacity stays tight.

What breaks the coffee shop break-even plan?

Stress test

The plan has room, but weak weekday traffic and cost creep are the main threats. Rent, wages, and delivery mix can push break-even higher faster than sales growth can cover it.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$357k	$334k cushion	Healthy cushion, but not a wide one.
Revenue shortfall	Top-line falls 10% from the base plan.	$357k	$265k cushion	Weak weekday traffic trims the cushion.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% from the base plan.	$393k	$298k cushion	Rent or wage creep lifts the hurdle.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points.	$381k	$310k cushion	Waste and delivery mix squeeze the margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise 5 points.	$419k	$272k cushion	Several small leaks can stack fast.

Can this coffee shop clear break-even before you sign the lease and hire the full team?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or lock the full staffing plan until traffic, ticket size, and margin line up with the $357K monthly break-even test. The model reaches breakeven in Month 3, but cash bottoms out in Month 2, so the reserve has to be ready first.

1Traffic Test$357K/mo

Check that the Year 1 cover plan can support break-even revenue before you commit to the lease.

2Fixed Load$5.35K/mo

Rent, utilities, internet, insurance, POS, cleaning, and accounting add up fast, so verify the base overhead can be covered by steady traffic.

3Ticket Size$9 / $16

Confirm midweek orders stay near $9 and weekend orders near $16, because that price split drives the revenue case.

4Variable Margin80.5% CM

Raw ingredients at 12%, packaging at 3%, card fees at 2.5%, and delivery commissions at 2.0% leave about 80.5% contribution before fixed costs.

5Staff Ramp7 FTE

Year 1 staffing is one manager, one head baker, two assistant bakers, and three baristas, so check service speed at the 300-cover Saturday peak before adding more labor.

6Cash Need$182K / $755K

The setup spend is $182K for equipment, build-out, fixtures, refrigeration, POS, and opening stock, and cash needs to hold to a $755K minimum in Month 2.