Coffee Subscription Break-Even: $208K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $14.6K/mo Launch base

Contribution margin 80%-84% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $18.2K/mo Cover burn

Break-even timing Month 19 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs to see where this subscription business breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers variable costs and fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct costs like beans, packaging, shipping, and payment fees rise with sales. $ Low cost High cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $32,800 $40,000 revenue - $7,200 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead your margin has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales in this coffee subscription business?

Cost classification

If you put rent or support payroll into variable margin, break-even will look easier than it is. Use revenue-linked items for contribution margin; keep monthly commitments below the line.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Cost of Coffee Beans & Packaging	Variable	Model as 12.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 10.0% in the mature year.	Treating bulk buys as free inventory instead of expense when shipped.
Add-On Product Costs	Variable	Model as 2.5% of revenue in the first year, falling to 2.0% in the mature year.	Forgetting small extras that still dilute contribution margin.
Shipping & Fulfillment	Variable	Model as 4.0% of revenue in the first year, improving to 3.0% by the mature year.	Using gross subscription revenue before delivery spend.
Payment Processing & Software Fees	Variable	Model as 1.5% of revenue in the first year, declining to 1.0% in the mature year.	Ignoring card fees because each charge feels small.
Warehouse Rent	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month as fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Burying rent inside per-box margin math.
Subscription Management Software	Fixed	Include $250 per month as fixed operating overhead across the planning period.	Mixing platform subscription fees with payment processing rates.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $150 monthly baseline, then review if volume puts pressure on storage or packing operations.	Assuming every utility dollar rises directly with subscribers.
Customer Support Specialist Labor	Semi-fixed	Add capacity in steps: 0.5 FTE in the second year, 1.0 in the third and fourth years, and 1.5 in the fifth year.	Spreading support payroll as a clean per-subscriber charge.

How does break-even change from a lean to a full coffee subscription case?

Scenario table

Break-even climbs as fixed overhead rises, even though the blended price and contribution margin improve a bit. In plain terms: better mix helps, but added labor and marketing make the revenue bar harder to clear.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with customer churn, shipping, and ad costs.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean case, Year 1 mix	$20,813	$4,163	$16,650	80.0%	$0	About 548 subscribers cover overhead with the lightest fixed load.
Base case, Year 2 mix	$33,972	$6,488	$27,483	80.9%	$0	About 835 subscribers are needed, so cushion stays thin.
Full case, Year 3 mix	$49,328	$8,925	$40,400	81.9%	$0	About 1,134 subscribers are needed; scale helps margin, but fixed cost climbs too.

What can push the coffee subscription past break-even?

Stress test

Base case revenue is about $20,813 a month against $16,650 of fixed overhead, so the plan only clears break-even by a hair. A 10% revenue miss, a 5-point jump in variable load, or 10% higher overhead each create a gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$20,813	$0 cushion	The base case is at break-even, so there is no room for slippage.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue runs 10% below plan.	$20,813	$1,665 gap	A small top-line miss turns profit negative fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises 10% to $18,315 a month.	$22,894	$2,081 gap	Even a modest overhead creep pushes break-even out of reach.
Margin pressure	Variable load rises from 20% to 25% of revenue.	$22,200	$1,387 gap	Shipping and coffee inflation can erase the cushion quickly.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, variable load rises to 25%, and fixed overhead rises 10%.	$24,420	$4,267 gap	That mix breaks the plan; CAC, conversion, and churn risk make it worse.

Can you prove break-even before you lock inventory, fulfillment, and paid growth for this coffee subscription?

Founder checklist

Test the unit economics before you commit to stock, payroll, or ad spend. If the blended basket, variable load, and cash runway do not clear the break-even line, scale will just make the loss bigger.

1Basket Value$38.00/mo

Verify the blended monthly revenue per subscriber really lands at $38.00, or the break-even math will not hold.

2Unit Load20.0%

Lock coffee, packaging, shipping, and processing terms before stock buys so first-year variable cost stays at 20.0% of revenue.

3Run Rate$33.97K/mo

Keep monthly fixed overhead near $16.65K and make sure revenue can clear the $33.97K break-even run rate before you add more scale spend.

4Funnel Gate2.0% / 60.0%

Budget the $25,000 first-year marketing plan, watch the $45 CAC target, and confirm visitors sign up at 2.0% with 60.0% of sign-ups becoming paid subscribers.

5Cash Trough$697K

Hold cash above the $697,000 minimum because the model bottoms in Month 19, before break-even arrives.

6Hiring RampYear 2

Delay Year 2 hires unless volume can carry the Marketing Manager, Customer Support Specialist, and Fulfillment Lead, since payroll pressure rises fast after Month 13.