Commercial Aquaponics Break-Even Analysis: $79K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $64.1K/mo Overhead base

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $79.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 26 Model crossover

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable expenses and the fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the cash available to cover direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct costs like feed, seeds, energy, and packing rise with sales. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $176,000 $220,000 revenue - $44,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the margin has to cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which aquaponics expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed at break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if fixed overhead and volume-driven expense are separated. Rent and payroll set the monthly hurdle, while feed, seeds, energy, packaging, and juvenile purchases move with production and sales.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Lease/Rent	Fixed	Include $15,000 per month before calculating contribution margin.	Reducing rent when harvest volume is low.
General Maintenance & Repairs	Semi-fixed	Start with $3,000 per month, then step up when systems, tanks, or growing capacity expand.	Modeling repairs as a smooth percentage of sales.
Visible Year 1 Payroll	Fixed	Include $38,750 per month in the first-year break-even hurdle.	Ignoring payroll and overstating break-even speed.
Fish Feed	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 6.0% of revenue, then update by model year.	Budgeting feed as a flat monthly bill.
Seeds & Growing Media	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 2.0% of revenue for plant output.	Treating growing inputs like fixed supplies.
Energy Costs (Production)	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 7.0% of revenue because pumps, lights, and climate control rise with output.	Treating production energy like rent.
Packaging & Logistics	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 4.0% of revenue as sales volume moves.	Forgetting delivery and packing costs in contribution margin.
Purchased Juveniles	Variable	Model per production cycle; first year is 10,000 juveniles at $0.70 for one cycle.	Burying juvenile purchases inside feed expense.

How do lean, base, and full aquaponics setups change break-even risk?

Scenario table

The model stays loss-making in all three cases, but the gap narrows as revenue scales faster than fixed overhead. By the fuller Year 3 setup, monthly loss is still about $36.8k, so this needs pre-lease funding and a disciplined ramp.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with survival, yield, pricing, and staffing pace.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 ramp	$10,785	$2,049	$64,050	81.0%	-$55,314	Fixed costs overwhelm contribution, so this stays in deep cash burn.
Base Year 2 build	$17,646	$3,192	$77,800	81.9%	-$63,346	Revenue improves, but fixed overhead still sits well above break-even.
Full Year 3 scale-up	$54,018	$9,249	$81,550	82.9%	-$36,781	Scale cuts the loss, but revenue still falls short of fixed-cost coverage.

What pushes aquaponics break-even higher, and how much cushion does Year 1 really have?

Stress test

The plan is most exposed to weak wholesale demand, delayed harvests, and higher energy or labor. Here’s the quick math: Year 1 still sits $68,289 below break-even, and a 10% shock pushes that gap wider.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change to revenue, margin, or fixed overhead.	$79,074	$68,289 gap	Year 1 revenue is far below break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue falls 10% to $9,707.	$79,074	$69,367 gap	Weak wholesale demand widens the loss.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 10% to $70,455.	$86,981	$76,196 gap	Higher rent, insurance, or labor lifts the hurdle.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 190% to 240% of revenue.	$84,276	$73,491 gap	Energy, feed, and packaging pressure the margin.
Combined pressure	Year 1 revenue falls 10%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and variable expenses rise to 240% of revenue.	$92,704	$82,997 gap	Slow sales and cost inflation leave little room to absorb delays.

Can this commercial aquaponics build clear its $79.1K monthly break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease until signed demand, pricing, and cash can support the model’s $79.1K monthly break-even. Years 1 and 2 are still negative, so the real test is whether confirmed sales can carry the fixed load.

1Signed demand$79.1K/mo

Compare signed purchase interest to monthly break-even before you lock the lease.

2Fixed load$64.1K/mo

Add the $25.3K facility overhead and about $38.75K of visible Year 1 payroll, then confirm the fixed load still fits the cash plan.

3Margin mix81% CM

Keep feed, seeds, energy, and packaging near 19% of revenue, because that is what leaves room to cover overhead.

4Capacity ramp10k→20k

Confirm the facility can support 10,000 purchased juveniles in Year 1 and 20,000 per cycle by Year 3, or the build will outgrow the output plan.

5Cash trough-$3.619M

Fund the Month 25 cash trough, because minimum cash falls to that level before breakeven arrives in Month 26.

6Hiring gateMonth 13

Hold the Month 13 hires until harvest volume and sales are already confirmed, so you do not add payroll ahead of real output.