Commercial Property Leasing Break-Even Analysis: Month 21 Target

Fixed costs $102.1K/mo Month 21 burn

Contribution margin 100% No variable load

Break-even revenue $102.1K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 21 Payback point

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly lease revenue, direct property costs, and fixed overhead against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue from leases is what funds the cost base. $ Low rent High rent Variable expenses Use direct property costs that rise with leasing activity. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $235,000 $270,000 revenue - $35,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

87%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the margin has to cover. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with leased-property revenue?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if the model keeps stable overhead separate from property-linked spend. Here, fixed overhead starts at $20,000/month before payroll, while modeled variable expense is $0 unless leasing commissions, incentives, or repairs are added.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $8,000/month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating headquarters rent as tied to occupancy or lease revenue.
Property Management Software	Fixed	Include $1,500/month in baseline overhead unless pricing changes by portfolio size.	Forgetting software in break-even because it is not property-level spend.
Corporate Insurance	Fixed	Include $2,500/month as recurring overhead in the monthly break-even floor.	Mixing corporate insurance with property purchase, debt, or tax lines.
Legal & Accounting Fees	Fixed	Include $3,000/month as recurring support needed to operate the portfolio.	Classifying all legal work as one-time setup instead of recurring overhead.
Corporate Marketing & Advertising	Fixed	Include $4,000/month in fixed overhead because the model sets a stable monthly spend.	Calling it variable without tying it to signed leases or revenue.
Core Payroll	Semi-fixed	Start with CEO at $180,000 annual and Head of Property Management at 0.5 FTE in the first year, then step up as staffing expands.	Spreading future hires evenly across early months before they start.
Rented-Property Obligations	Semi-fixed	Add monthly obligations when active: Retail Hub $30,000, Flex Space $20,000, and Industrial Park $25,000.	Treating leased property rent as variable just because tenant revenue changes.
Leasing Commissions, Tenant Incentives, and Repair Charges	Variable	Use $0 in the current model, then add only if charges move directly with leases, tenant activity, or revenue.	Putting purchase costs, construction budgets, debt principal, or taxes into operating break-even.

How does break-even change from a lean lease-up to the base and full property mix?

Scenario table

Break-even moves from a $42,100 monthly gap in the lean case to a $107,900 cushion at the base case, then a $368,700 cushion in the full mix. With no modeled variable costs, vacancy and payroll timing drive the swing.

Planning figures only; they show modeled lease-up economics, not guaranteed rent or occupancy.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean lease-up: Retail Hub only	$60,000	$0	$102,100	100%	-$42,100	Still below break-even, so cash burn continues.
Base case: Office Tower + Retail Hub	$210,000	$0	$102,100	100%	$107,900	Clears break-even and creates a monthly cushion.
Full buildout: all six properties	$505,000	$0	$136,300	100%	$368,700	Well above break-even and supports the larger platform.

What can push this commercial property leasing plan below break-even?

Stress test

The base case clears break-even by about $107,900 a month, but that buffer gets thin fast if occupancy slips, rents are cut, or overhead runs above plan. The combined downside still stays positive, but only by about $33,800.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$102,100	$107,900 cushion	Solid buffer, but timing risk still matters.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 20% to $168,000.	$102,100	$65,900 cushion	Lower occupancy or rent concessions cut the buffer fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 15% above plan.	$117,400	$92,600 cushion	Overhead creep pushes the break-even line higher.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses take 10% of revenue.	$113,445	$86,900 cushion	Repairs or other added costs trim the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 20%, variable expenses take 10%, and fixed costs rise 15%.	$130,500	$33,800 cushion	Delayed occupancy and extra costs leave little room.

What should you verify before you sign the next property commitment?

Founder checklist

Verify demand, cash, and staffing before you lock in the next property. The model turns cash negative by $28.82 million at Month 52, reaches break-even in Month 21, and needs proof before more purchase, build, or marketing spend.

1Tenant demandBefore Month 3

Get signed tenant interest before each acquisition month so empty space does not outrun rent.

2Fixed overhead$20K/mo

Check that the $20,000 monthly overhead stays covered, since office rent, software, insurance, legal, marketing, and supplies start in Month 1.

3Rent roll$505K/mo

Verify the six properties can reach about $505,000 a month in rent, because the model has no variable expenses to absorb fixed costs.

4Hiring rampMonth 13

Keep the leasing and accounting hires tied to Month 13 and the assistant to Month 25, or payroll will outrun lease-up.

5Cash trough-$28.82M

Fund reserve cash for the Month 52 low point, because the business stays deeply cash negative before payback.

6Spend gateMonth 21

Hold tenant-improvement and equipment spend behind a gate until lease-up supports break-even, and keep the $28.5 million purchase cost, $9.1 million construction budget, and $165,000 capex separate from operating timing.