Concept Store Break-Even Point: $35K Monthly Sales to Start

Fixed costs $22.0K/mo Monthly base

Contribution margin 82.5% After variable cost

Break-even revenue $26.6K/mo Sales target

Break-even timing Month 33 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs to see where break-even lands.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool left after variable costs to cover fixed overhead. $ Low sales Busy store Variable expenses These rise with sales and usually include inventory, fees, and packaging. $ Thin costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $46,290 $55,318 revenue - $9,028 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base your contribution margin has to cover. $ Light overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which store expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful when rent and payroll sit in the numerator, while inventory, box contents, card fees, and packaging reduce contribution margin. Misclassifying opening buildout as monthly overhead can distort the Month 33 break-even target.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Store Rent, $6,500/month	Fixed	Put the full monthly rent in fixed overhead, the break-even numerator.	Spreading fit-out spend into rent and overstating monthly break-even.
Utilities, $800/month	Fixed	Treat as fixed within the monthly planning range shown in the model.	Linking the full amount to sales when the model uses a flat monthly charge.
Store Insurance, $250/month	Fixed	Include as recurring fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Leaving it below the line and understating required gross profit.
POS System Subscription, $150/month	Fixed	Include the subscription in fixed overhead, separate from card processing fees.	Mixing subscription fees with payment processing and double-counting sales fees.
First-year payroll, about $13,458/month	Semi-fixed	Use current staffing as fixed overhead, then step it up when FTE counts rise.	Treating payroll as fully variable even though scheduled staff must be paid.
Wholesale Inventory Cost, 14.0% of sales in the first year	Variable	Deduct from revenue when calculating contribution margin.	Putting inventory replenishment in fixed overhead instead of margin.
Discovery Box Content Cost, 18.0% of sales in the first year	Variable	Deduct only from the related box sales volume when modeling contribution.	Applying the box content rate to every product category.
Payment Processing Fees, 2.5% of sales in the first year	Variable	Deduct from each sale before calculating contribution dollars.	Forgetting card fees and overstating margin on small-ticket purchases.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full-scale concept store?

Scenario table

Launch costs outrun sales, so the store starts deep in the red. By Year 3 it sits near break-even, and by Year 5 margin improvement only matters if traffic, conversion, and repeat buying rise faster than payroll.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with traffic, conversion, and payroll mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$3,378	$1,233	$21,978	63.5%	-$19,833	Traffic is far below the break-even line, so cash burn is high.
Base break-even setup	$44,332	$14,900	$29,520	66.4%	-$83	This is the knife-edge case; a small sales miss pushes it back into loss.
Full mature concept store	$229,438	$69,854	$31,770	69.5%	$127,583	Scale creates cushion only when traffic and repeat buying outrun payroll.

What breaks this concept store’s break-even plan?

Stress test

The plan gets fragile fast if sales slip, fixed costs rise, or the mix shifts to lower-margin items. In Year 3, fixed costs are $29,520 and break-even revenue is about $44,458, so even small misses can turn into a monthly loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Year 3 fixed costs stay at $29,520 and contribution margin stays at 66.4%.	$44,458	$0 cushion	No buffer; the plan only works at full strength.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue runs 10% below the plan.	$44,458	$2,952 gap	A small traffic miss creates a monthly loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $32,472.	$48,904	$4,446 gap	Higher rent or labor pushes break-even up fast.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 5 points to 61.4%.	$48,079	$3,621 gap	A small gross margin squeeze needs more sales to hold even.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls to $40,012 while fixed costs hit $32,472 and margin drops to 61.4%.	$52,887	$7,904 gap	At that level, the store is still about $7,904 underwater each month.

Can this concept store clear break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Test the lease, fit-out, and hiring plan against the model first. Year 1 needs 645 weekly visitors, a $59.48 average order, and enough cash to carry a $272K trough before Month 37, or the store can look busy and still miss break-even.

1Traffic Proof645/week

Verify the site can pull the Year 1 visitor mix of 50 Monday, 100 Friday, 180 Saturday, and 130 Sunday visits before you lock the lease.

2Buyer Rate10.0%

Test whether opening traffic can convert at 10.0%, because 645 weekly visitors only become about 3,354 buyers a year if the store earns that ratio.

3Basket Size$59.48 AOV

Check that the 1.3-unit basket and product mix really hold a first-year average order value near $59.48, or the store will need more traffic just to stand still.

4Margin Check82.5% CM

Confirm supplier terms keep wholesale inventory at 14.0%, Discovery Box contents at 18.0%, and fees at 4.5% combined so contribution stays near 82.5%.

5Payroll Load$22.0K/mo

Add staff only when sales can carry about $22.0K a month of rent, utilities, insurance, software, cleaning, security, supplies, marketing tools, and payroll.

6Cash Cushion$272K

Hold enough cash to fund the $135K opening build and the modeled $272K low point in Month 37, because EBITDA stays negative through Year 3.