Condo Development Break-Even Analysis: Month 31 Sales Break-Even

Fixed costs $87.3K/mo Payroll plus overhead

Contribution margin 91.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $95.4K/mo Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 31 Cumulative break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly condo revenue against variable costs and fixed overhead to see when the project clears break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue drives the margin left to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Sales commissions and soft costs rise with each sale. $ Low cost High cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $110,640 $120,000 revenue - $9,360 variable expenses

Margin ratio

92%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Office, team, and overhead stay due each month. $ Lean team Scaled team

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with condo sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable if project recovery, sales-linked fees, and monthly burn stay separate. Here’s the quick math: listed land is $73.5m, construction is $275.0m, and mature fixed burn is $87.25k/month including payroll.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Land purchases	Semi-fixed	Recover the $73.5m site spend through unit sales before counting profit.	Spreading land evenly as monthly overhead.
Construction budgets	Semi-fixed	Recover the $275.0m build budget by project as units sell.	Treating construction draw timing like office burn.
Sales & Brokerage Commissions	Variable	Reduce contribution margin as a percentage of sales revenue.	Modeling commissions as fixed overhead.
Project Specific Soft Costs	Variable	Reduce margin using the modeled percentage tied to project activity.	Leaving soft costs out of unit economics.
Office Rent	Fixed	Add $12k/month to recurring burn from Month 1 through Month 60.	Waiting to add rent until sales begin.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Add staffing burn as headcount steps up; mature payroll is $61.25k/month.	Ignoring payroll before first sales in Month 31.
General Liability Insurance	Fixed	Add $2.5k/month to monthly operating burn.	Making insurance rise with every unit sold.
Legal & Accounting Retainer	Fixed	Add $4k/month to fixed overhead for the full model period.	Treating the retainer as deal-by-deal only.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full condo development scenarios?

Scenario table

Break-even shifts with scale: lean has the smallest funding gap, base lines up best with the Month 31 sales start, and full needs the most cash before revenue catches up. More projects help only if absorption stays on schedule.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even moves with pricing, absorption, and closing timing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean single-site case	$758k	$42k	$87k	94.5%	$629k	One project is easier to fund, but one delay can erase the cushion.
Base phased launch case	$3.27m	$229k	$87k	93.0%	$2.95m	Best fit for phased launch; Month 31 is the break-even anchor.
Full six-project portfolio case	$6.25m	$437k	$87k	93.0%	$5.72m	Biggest capital drag; only works with strong pre-sales and funding.

What breaks the break-even plan for this condo development?

Stress test

Current break-even is about $3.801b, so a 10% revenue miss opens a roughly $380m gap right away. If costs rise and margins slip together, break-even moves to about $4.081b and the hole can widen to roughly $660m.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$3.801b	$0 cushion	There’s no cushion at target.
Revenue shortfall	Sales revenue runs 10% below plan.	$3.801b	$380m gap	A 10% miss removes about $380m of sales.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead runs 10% higher.	$3.802b	$0.5m gap	Small overhead drift still needs recovery.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops to 91.0%.	$3.884b	$83m gap	A 2-point margin hit adds about $83m.
Combined pressure	Costs overrun 5%, overhead rises 10%, and contribution margin drops to 91.0%.	$4.081b	$280m gap	A 10% miss can become about a $660m hole.

Is the condo project ready before you buy the site and commit to construction?

Founder checklist

Don’t commit until the site, approvals, bids, and sales timing all fit the model. Break-even lands in Month 31, but cash bottoms out around Month 30 at about -$240.8M, so any slip needs more runway or smaller commitments.

1Site control$8.0M-$18.0M

Verify the land is under control before purchase, because the acquisition checks start the capital stack and set the first big cash hit.

2Bid lock$35.0M-$60.0M

Lock contractor bids only after the entitlement and permit path is clear, because the build plan depends on those 15 to 20 month construction spans holding.

3Cost load8.5% to 5.5%

Keep sales commissions and project soft costs on the modeled path, because every point above that range eats the development spread before break-even.

4Staffing ramp$63.1K to $87.3K/mo

Keep hiring in step with approvals; fixed overhead runs about $63.1K a month in Year 1 and rises to about $87.3K when the team is fully staffed.

5Launch timingMonth 31+

Do not count on closings before Month 31; the plan needs sales launch at Month 31 or later to start feeding the break-even window.

6Cash cushion-$240.8M

Hold enough reserve to absorb the Month 30 cash trough, because the model goes deeply negative before sales can catch up.