Craft Beer Brewery Break-Even Analysis: $479K/Month

Fixed costs $39.9K/mo Year 1 run-rate

Contribution margin 83% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $47.9K/mo Cover fixed base

Break-even timing Month 14 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable costs and fixed costs to see where the brewery breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that funds direct costs and overhead. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These rise with output, sales mix, and payment fees. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $62,692 $81,875 revenue - $19,183 variable expenses

Margin ratio

77%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin must cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which brewery expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed at break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if fixed expenses stay in the numerator and per-sale expenses reduce contribution margin. Misclassifying utilities or salaried labor can shift the Month 14 break-even point and hide cash needs.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Brewery & Taproom Rent	Fixed	Use $8,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across pints and making break-even look better at higher volume.
Insurance (Property & Liability)	Fixed	Use $750 per month as fixed overhead, regardless of unit sales in the planning range.	Leaving insurance out because it doesn’t touch production directly.
Utilities (Water, Elec, Gas)	Semi-variable	Model the $2,200 monthly base as fixed, plus the 1.0% brewery utilities allocation tied to revenue.	Treating the full utility bill as fixed and missing usage pressure as batches rise.
Malt, Hops, Yeast, Water, Cans, Labels, and Carriers	Variable	Apply unit-level material amounts to each product sold, such as $1.20 for an IPA Can 4-pack and $1.38 for a Seasonal Ale Can 4-pack.	Using one blended material rate when cans, draft pints, kegs, and shirts have different unit economics.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Reduce contribution margin by the fee rate, starting at 2.0% of revenue in the first year.	Putting card fees in fixed overhead instead of tying them to sales dollars.
Marketing Event Costs	Variable	Reduce contribution margin by the event rate, starting at 1.5% of revenue in the first year.	Budgeting events as flat spend when the model links them to revenue.
Taproom Staff	Semi-fixed	Model staffing as capacity steps: 2.0 FTE in the first year, then 2.5 FTE in the second year.	Treating all labor as per-pint variable when salaries start before volume ramps.
Professional Services (Accounting/Legal)	Fixed	Use $1,000 per month as fixed operating overhead throughout the forecast period.	Excluding recurring accounting and legal work from break-even overhead.

How does break-even change from a lean taproom-led launch to full brewery scale?

Scenario table

A taproom-led launch gets you close to break-even with a thin cushion, then packaged beer and keg volume widen it fast. Fixed overhead stays heavy, so mix and volume matter more than small price moves.

These are planning assumptions based on the model period mix, not guaranteed results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean taproom-led launch	$511k	$85k	$399k	83.4%	-$15k	Slim cushion; revenue is only about $32k above break-even.
Base taproom plus packaged beer	$819k	$133k	$451k	83.7%	$211k	Comfortable cushion; demand is past break-even.
Full brewery scale with keg growth	$1.149m	$183k	$553k	84.1%	$385k	Strong cushion; higher volume covers overhead more easily.

What breaks the brewery break-even plan?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: Year 1 revenue is about $511,000, and with about 83.4% contribution margin against $399,000 of fixed overhead, break-even lands near $478,000. That leaves only about a $33,000 cushion, so a small sales drop or cost creep can flip the plan into a gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$478,000	$33,000 cushion	The buffer is real, but it is not wide.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue drops 10% to $460,000.	$478,000	$18,000 gap	Lower draft traffic can erase the cushion fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 10% to $439,000.	$527,000	$16,000 gap	Rent or wage pressure pushes break-even past plan.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 3 points to 80.4%.	$497,000	$14,000 cushion	Higher can inputs or a weaker mix trims the buffer.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 10% and fixed overhead rises 10%.	$527,000	$67,000 gap	Lower sales plus higher rent or wages widen the hole fast.

What should a craft beer founder verify before signing the lease?

Founder checklist

Test the month-to-month load before you lock the lease, buy equipment, or hire the full team. If the brewery can’t cover fixed costs, payroll, and the Month 13 cash dip before Month 14 break-even, the plan needs a smaller footprint or slower ramp.

1Monthly load$39.9K/mo

Check that $14.4K in fixed expenses plus about $25.5K in Year 1 payroll can stay covered before you commit to rent and buildout.

2Year 1 sales$613.5K

Verify the Year 1 mix of 12,000 IPA 4-packs, 25,000 draft pints, 400 stout kegs, and 10,000 seasonal 4-packs is realistic, because the cash plan depends on it.

3Unit floor$1.25 / $0.62 / $15.50

Confirm the selling prices of $14.50, $7.50, and $190 clear these direct costs before payment fees and event costs.

4Staffing ramp5.5 FTE

Verify the Year 1 team can brew, package, and serve without slip, and only add the assistant brewer in Month 13 if volume demands it.

5Cash cushion$874K min

Keep the planned $423K capex separate from operating cash, because minimum cash lands in Month 13 before break-even in Month 14.

6Break-even timingMonth 14

Check that launch demand gets you to break-even by Month 14, because any delay widens the cash gap and pushes payback farther out.