Craft Beer Bar Break-Even Analysis: $47K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $23.3K/mo Mgmt + overhead

Contribution margin 83% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $28.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 3 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

This calculator tests monthly revenue against variable expenses and the fixed cost base for a craft beer bar.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that has to cover variable costs first, then fixed costs. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These are the direct costs that rise with sales, like beer inputs, fees, and promo spend. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $61,000 $72,000 revenue - $11,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base your contribution margin has to cover, including rent, payroll, utilities, and admin. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which bar expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when pour cost, card fees, and added shift labor are buried in overhead. Keep fixed monthly bills separate from sales-driven spend so the Month 3 break-even target stays useful.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent & Lease, $7,500/month	Fixed	Include the full monthly lease in overhead before calculating required sales.	Spreading rent across drinks and hiding the true monthly hurdle.
Business Insurance, $450/month	Fixed	Treat as stable monthly overhead across the full model period.	Linking insurance to sales volume when the model shows a flat bill.
Software Subscriptions, $800/month	Fixed	Keep in fixed overhead unless the subscription plan changes with scale.	Ignoring small fixed tools because each line feels immaterial.
Food & Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Model as sales-driven spend; the source model uses 10.0% of revenue in the first year.	Treating pour cost like rent instead of tying it to each sale.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply as a percentage of sales; the first-year assumption is 2.0% of revenue.	Leaving card fees in fixed overhead, which overstates margin at higher volume.
Marketing & Promotion	Variable	Use the modeled sales percentage; first-year spend is 3.0% of revenue.	Assuming promotions stay flat while covers grow from weekday to weekend levels.
Line Cook, Kitchen Assistant, and Dishwasher staffing	Semi-fixed	Add labor in steps as full-time equivalents rise over the model period.	Modeling added shift labor as fixed, even when staffing increases with volume.
Utilities, $2,000/month	Fixed	Use the source model as fixed, then stress test higher operating hours separately.	Assuming power, water, and gas never move when kitchen and bar usage rises.

How does break-even change from lean to full traffic at a craft beer bar?

Scenario table

At low volume, fixed labor and rent take a bigger bite, so break-even stays tight. As covers rise, revenue grows faster than variable costs, and the fixed base gets absorbed more cleanly.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with traffic, pricing, and labor mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening year	$91.3k	$15.5k	$39.1k	83.0%	$36.8k	Above break-even, but the cushion is still thin.
Base year 3 run-rate	$178.2k	$28.3k	$48.4k	84.1%	$101.5k	Comfortably above break-even, with better fixed-cost absorption.
Full mature year 5 run-rate	$274.0k	$39.7k	$53.5k	85.5%	$180.8k	Strong cushion; fixed costs are easier to absorb at scale.

What breaks the break-even plan for this craft beer bar?

Stress test

This bar has a solid cushion in the base plan, but it gets tight fast if weekday traffic slips or margins get squeezed. Weak covers, rent creep, keg waste, and discount-heavy sales are the break-even risks that matter most.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$471k	$442k cushion	Base plan clears break-even by a wide margin.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue drops 10% to about $822k.	$471k	$351k cushion	Traffic can fall before the model breaks.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $430k.	$518k	$395k cushion	Rent and overhead eat cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expense rate rises to 200%.	$488k	$425k cushion	Waste and discounting squeeze the spread.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 20%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable rate rises to 200%.	$576k	$155k cushion	The cushion gets thin and leaves little room.

Can this craft beer bar clear break-even before you lock the lease and equipment spend?

Founder checklist

Use this checklist to test the bar against the model before you commit. If the lease, payroll, traffic, capex, and cash cushion cannot support the Month 3 break-even path, hold the signing and hiring.

1Lease Load$12.9K/mo

Check that rent and other locked costs stay at $12.9K a month, with $7.5K of that from rent, because this is the fixed load the bar has to carry before profit starts.

2Payroll Ramp$314K/yr

Verify the Year 1 staffing plan at 1 manager, 1 head chef, 2 line cooks, 1 kitchen assistant, 1 customer service lead, and 1 dishwasher; the $314K wage bill has to fit the sales ramp.

3Sales Plan$91.3K/mo

Make sure Year 1 sales can hold about $91.3K a month, or roughly 1.9x the $47.1K monthly break-even run rate, so the bar is not living on a thin edge.

4Traffic Proof965/wk

Confirm the bar can hold 965 weekly covers at a blended AOV of about $21.84, because that traffic mix is what turns the revenue plan into cash.

5Unit Margin83.0% CM

Check that food and beverage ingredients stay near 10.0% of sales and packaging and supplies near 2.0%, because that keeps contribution margin around 83.0% before payroll and rent.

6Build Cash$263K capex

Keep the $263K capex stack for kitchen equipment, POS, furniture, HVAC, security, signage, smallwares, and setup funded, and keep $767K of cash ready for the Month 2 trough, since break-even lands in Month 3 and payback takes 15 months.