Craft Brewery Break-Even Analysis: $415K Monthly Revenue Floor

Fixed costs $35.3K Monthly base

Contribution margin 85% After variable

Break-even revenue $41.4K Target sales

Break-even timing Month 1 Opening month

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly beer revenue, direct costs, and overhead stack up against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin pool that has to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Direct beer, packaging, and sales costs rise with each sale. $ Lower direct costs Higher direct costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $78,881 $92,000 revenue - $13,119 variable expenses

Margin ratio

86%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin must cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which brewery expenses are fixed, and which move with pints, 4-packs, fills, flights, and merchandise sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets more reliable when rent, staffing steps, ingredients, packaging, and sales fees are modeled by behavior. Blending them into one overhead line can hide the real margin needed to cover Month 1 operating commitments.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Brewery and Taproom Rent	Fixed	Use $6,000 per month in the fixed overhead base for Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across each pint and calling it variable.
Utilities Base Charge	Fixed	Use the $1,500 monthly base charge as fixed overhead before unit volume is applied.	Combining base utilities with production water and utilities.
Production Water and Utilities	Variable	Apply per-unit usage: $0.10 per pint, $0.30 per growler fill, and $0.15 per tasting flight.	Treating all utilities as one flat monthly bill.
Malt, Hops, Yeast, and Cleaning Chemicals	Variable	Model these as direct unit inputs that rise with beer volume across pints, 4-packs, fills, and flights.	Putting ingredients into fixed overhead instead of unit margin.
Cans, Lids, Labels, and Carriers	Variable	Use $1.00 per to-go 4-pack from $0.60 cans and lids plus $0.40 labels and carriers.	Forgetting packaging when 4-pack sales grow.
Credit Card Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 1.0% of sales to each revenue stream in the break-even model.	Using cash sales margin for card-heavy taproom sales.
Taproom Staff	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps: 2.0 FTE in the first year, 3.0 FTE in Years 2 and 3, and 4.0 FTE by Years 4 and 5.	Treating labor as fully variable with every pint sold.
Marketing and To-Go Co-op Fee	Semi-variable	Use $2,000 per month as fixed marketing, plus the 0.2% co-op fee on to-go sales.	Blending monthly marketing and sales-linked fees together.

How does break-even change as the brewery moves from lean launch to base and full scale?

Scenario table

Taproom pints and to-go packs drive the mix, so revenue rises faster than variable cost as the brewery scales. Fixed payroll and taproom overhead still climb, and added distribution would boost sales but thin break-even coverage.

Planning cases use model assumptions, not guarantees, and mix or labor can move break-even fast.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Taproom-led lean case	$55.1k	$8.2k	$29.4k	85.1%	$17.5k	Launch clears break-even by about $20.5k a month.
Taproom-led base case	$92.0k	$13.2k	$39.2k	85.6%	$39.6k	Base year keeps a solid cushion, but payroll still sets the floor.
Taproom-led full case	$129.6k	$17.9k	$45.1k	86.2%	$66.6k	Mature year has the widest cushion, unless lower-margin distribution gets added.

What breaks the brewery’s break-even plan first?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even with about $136,000 of cushion. The plan turns tight fast if taproom traffic slips, packaging and waste costs rise, or staffing and other fixed overhead climb before sales do.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$415,000	$136,000 cushion	Base plan still has room before break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 15% to about $468,000.	$415,000	$53,000 cushion	Weak weekday taproom traffic trims most of the cushion.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $388,000.	$456,000	$95,000 cushion	Hiring or overhead ahead of sales pushes break-even up fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 20%, cutting contribution margin to about 82.1%.	$430,000	$121,000 cushion	Packaging spoilage or waste cuts through the margin buffer.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, variable expenses rise 20%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$473,000	$5,000 gap	A small sales miss plus cost creep turns profit into loss.

Can this brewery support the 10 BBL buildout before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Test the site, buildout, and opening cash against the Year 1 model before you commit. The plan points to about $55.1K in monthly revenue, roughly $35.3K of fixed burn, and a $1.205M minimum cash need, so the deal only works if demand and funding are real.

1Site fit10 BBL

Verify the space can hold the brewhouse, tanks, canning line, taproom buildout, and storage, because a poor fit turns the $503K capex plan into delays and change orders.

2Launch demand61,000 units

Year 1 assumes 40,000 pints, 10,000 to-go 4-packs, 2,000 growler fills, 8,000 tasting flights, and 1,000 merch sales, so confirm the opening traffic can clear that volume.

3Demand proof$55.1K/mo

That first-year mix works out to about $661K in annual revenue, so the monthly sales run rate has to show up in real orders, not just weekend spikes.

4Margin check85% CM

Here’s the quick math: the listed beer, packaging, fee, and supply costs still leave about 85% contribution margin before fixed overhead, so price and waste control need to hold.

5Burn rate$35.3K/mo

Year 1 fixed costs run about $35.3K a month, and that assumes no assistant brewer yet, so keep staffing lean until volume supports the next hire.

6Cash cushion$1.205M

Minimum cash is $1.205M in Month 1, and that reserve needs to be funded before the buildout starts or the brewery will run out of room fast.