Cranberry Farm Break-Even Point: ~$223K/Month

Fixed costs $17.4K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 82% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $21.2K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 10 Modeled hit point

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly cranberry revenue can cover direct costs and the farm's fixed monthly base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with sales, like packaging and logistics. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $24,920 $29,667 revenue - $4,747 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

$13,330 short

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base the farm has to cover each month. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which cranberry farming expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets more reliable when acreage-driven spending, harvest-driven spending, and overhead stay in separate buckets. In the first year, fixed overhead is $5,750/month before payroll, while several selling costs move directly with revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Farm office rent, insurance, software, utilities, maintenance, professional services, and website fees	Fixed	Use $5,750/month as base overhead within the current operating range.	Spreading these lines across harvest months only, which understates off-season burn.
Farm Manager and Lead Agricultural Technician payroll	Fixed	Use $140,000/year in the first year before adding volume-linked labor.	Treating core farm leadership as variable just because revenue is seasonal.
Leased land	Semi-fixed	Model Year 1 lease at 5 hectares × $180/month = $900/month, then step it with leased hectares.	Treating the $30,000/hectare land purchase price as a monthly operating expense.
Packaging & Processing Materials	Variable	Apply 6% of revenue in the first year, then use the forecast percentage by period.	Budgeting a flat monthly amount even when packaged sales mix changes.
Third-Party Logistics & Distribution Fees	Variable	Apply 5% of revenue in the first year because fees rise with shipped sales.	Ignoring distribution fees in break-even for wholesale and direct sales.
Marketing & Sales Expenses	Variable	Apply 4% of revenue in the first year, then reduce with the forecast percentage.	Locking marketing at one monthly number while direct sales volume scales.
Water & Sustainable Pest Management Supplies	Variable	Apply 3% of revenue in the first year as a usage-linked growing expense.	Classing crop supplies as fixed overhead instead of tying them to production.
Harvest labor, storage, and packing surge capacity	Semi-variable	Keep a base operating plan, then add volume-linked charges during Month 9 and Month 10 harvest spikes.	Using average monthly spend and missing the cash strain in harvest months.

How does break-even change from a lean 10-hectare start to a base ramp-up and a full cranberry build?

Scenario table

More hectares and a richer product mix lift the share left after variable costs, so the lean case stays under break-even, the base case clears it, and the full case builds a wider cushion. Cash still swings in harvest months.

Planning assumptions only; actual yields, pricing, and harvest cash can be higher or lower.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean case: Year 1 opening farm	~$122K	~$22K	~$183K	82%	-$83K	Still below break-even; fixed costs outrun contribution by about $101K a month.
Base case: Year 2 ramp-up	~$393K	~$67K	~$187K	82.9%	~$139K	Clears break-even on average, so the farm covers overhead with room left.
Full case: Year 3 expansion mix	~$933K	~$149K	~$214K	84%	~$570K	Wide cushion over break-even; the 40% fresh bulk, 30% grocery fresh, 15% dried, 10% juice, 5% frozen mix helps.

What breaks the cranberry farm break-even plan?

Stress test

Year 1 already runs about $1.217M below break-even, so the plan is tight from the start. A 1% harvest revenue slip or a $1,000 monthly overhead jump pushes the gap wider fast, and a 1-point margin hit makes it worse.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$2,680,000	$1,217,000 gap	Year 1 revenue sits well below break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 harvest revenue is 1% lower.	$2,680,000	$1,232,000 gap	A 1% slip cuts sales by about $15K.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises by $1,000 per month.	$2,826,000	$1,363,000 gap	That extra overhead adds about $146K a year.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 1 percentage point.	$2,714,000	$1,251,000 gap	A 1-point cost bump pushes break-even higher.
Combined pressure	Revenue is 1% lower, fixed overhead rises $1,000 per month, and variable expenses rise 1 point.	$2,728,000	$1,280,000 gap	Small hits stack up fast before scale is in place.

What should you verify before you lease bog acreage and fund the first cranberry harvest?

Founder checklist

The model reaches break-even in Month 10, but cash still bottoms out at $839K negative in Month 21, so this is a go/no-go check before you commit to land, labor, or equipment.

1Acre Mix10 ha / 50-50

Verify the first-year plan really starts at 10 hectares with 5 owned and 5 leased, because the land mix drives the whole cost base.

2Lease Budget$900/mo

Confirm the Year 1 lease bill is $900 per month for 5 leased hectares at $180 per hectare, so the recurring land burn stays inside plan.

3Land Buy$150K

Keep the 5-hectare land purchase as a separate $150,000 capex item, not part of operating break-even, or the monthly math will look too good.

4Cost Stack14% rev

Check that water and pest supplies stay near 3% of revenue and packaging plus logistics stay near 11%, because that 14% load has to fit the selling price mix.

5Peak Ops2 mo / 4 channels

Make sure the two-month harvest window has enough staff, cold storage, and processing for fresh, dried, juice concentrate, and frozen output, and do not add hires beyond the modeled payroll unless you update it.

6Buyer Cash3-6 mo / $839K

Line up buyers before harvest because sales cycles run 3 to 6 months, and keep cash ready for the $839K trough before payback.