Cryptocurrency OTC Trading Desk Break-Even: $965K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $93K/mo Overhead base

Contribution margin 93.7% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $99.3K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch break-even

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly trading revenue covers deal-level costs and the fixed overhead this desk carries each month.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that pays variable costs and fixed overhead. $ Smaller desk Scaled desk Variable expenses Include settlement, custody, payment, and support costs that rise with volume. $ Tighter costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $34,714,272 $36,312,000 revenue - $1,597,728 variable expenses

Margin ratio

96%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base that stays on even when deal flow slows. $ Lean overhead Full overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with trading volume for this OTC desk?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable if stable overhead stays separate from trade-linked spend. In the first year, $93K/month of fixed overhead and $145K/month of wages should not be mixed with settlement, custody, processing, or support percentages.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office rent, $25K/month	Fixed	Include in monthly overhead from Month 1.	Tying rent to trade count.
Cloud infrastructure fixed, $15K/month	Fixed	Track as fixed platform overhead.	Double counting it with platform development spend.
Insurance premiums, $20K/month	Fixed	Include in operating break-even and runway.	Excluding insurance because it is not transaction driven.
Wages, $145K/month in first year	Semi-fixed	Step up with the FTE hiring plan.	Treating payroll as fully variable.
Marketing, $667K/month in first year	Semi-fixed	Separate buyer and seller acquisition spend.	Assuming CAC falls before the model proves it.
Transaction settlement, 1.5% of revenue in first year	Variable	Apply directly to revenue volume.	Parking settlement spend in fixed overhead.
Crypto custody, 0.8% of revenue in first year	Variable	Scale with trading activity.	Hiding custody inside compliance overhead.
Variable payment processing, 3.0% of revenue in first year	Variable	Apply to revenue as volume grows.	Confusing it with seller processing fee income.

How does break-even shift from a lean OTC desk to a base case and a full-scale desk?

Scenario table

The desk clears break-even in all three cases, but the cushion widens as revenue scales and the cost mix improves. The main risk is cost creep, not crossing the line.

Planning cases only; these are model assumptions, not trading guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean OTC desk	$7.6M	$1.2M	$238K	84.7%	$6.2M	Above break-even, but the cushion is the thinnest.
Base OTC desk	$18.0M	$2.0M	$270K	89.0%	$15.7M	Break-even is reached in Month 1 with strong room above fixed costs.
Full-scale OTC desk	$36.3M	$3.1M	$320K	91.3%	$32.8M	Strong cushion; scale makes break-even pressure minimal.

What would push this OTC desk below break-even?

Stress test

The opening month has a wide cushion: break-even is about $965K/month versus about $7.6M/month of Year 1 revenue. The real risk is cost creep and slower onboarding, because Year 2 fixed cost pressure lifts break-even to about $1.36M/month.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$965K/month	$6.66M cushion	Strong cushion; deal flow can soften without breaking the model.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue slips to $1.0M, close to launch break-even.	$965K/month	$35K cushion	A small miss in onboarding nearly wipes out the buffer.
Fixed-cost pressure	Year 2 fixed operating base rises to about $1.27M/month from marketing and payroll.	$1.36M/month	$6.27M cushion	Higher staff and acquisition spend lift the bar, but the model still clears it.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 6.3% to 8.3% of revenue.	$987K/month	$6.64M cushion	Settlement and custody drag trims the spread, but not enough to break even.
Combined pressure	Year 2 fixed costs and 8.3% variable expenses hit together.	$1.39M/month	$6.24M cushion	This is the first case where onboarding speed and cost control both matter.

What should the founder verify before locking in major OTC desk spend?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock the office, hiring, or build until banking rails, custody, KYC/AML, and settlement all work in the opening month. With minimum cash at $906K in Month 1 and a $965K monthly revenue go/no-go trigger, the desk needs proof that growth can clear the fixed load.

1Banking railsBefore lease

Confirm settlement bank access, custody flow, KYC/AML steps, and trade settlement all work before you sign the office lease or commit liquidity.

2Fixed load$93K/mo

Make sure the $93K monthly fixed cost stack stays covered from day one, because rent, cloud, software, insurance, services, and travel start before volume.

3Trade margin$74.6M EBITDA

Stress-test whether the model still leaves room after settlement, custody, payment processing, and support; if the spread compresses, break-even gets fragile fast.

4Staffing ramp$1.74M/yr

Phase hiring against the Year 1 payroll, since CEO, CTO, engineering, compliance, sales, account, and DevOps cost money before every desk line is busy.

5CAC proof$10K / $75K

Validate buyer CAC near $10K and seller CAC near $75K before scaling the $5M buyer and $3M seller budgets, or growth can outrun payback.

6Cash gate$906K / $965K

Keep at least $906K minimum cash in Month 1 and do not push past the go/no-go point until monthly revenue reaches $965K.