Custom Protein Bars Break-Even Analysis: ~$64K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $50.2K/mo Month 1 base

Contribution margin 78% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $64.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 26 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue against variable costs and the fixed cost base for custom protein bars.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Monthly sales revenue sets the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct ingredient, packaging, shipping, processing, and testing costs rise with sales. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $105,131 $129,583 revenue - $24,452 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the business must cover before profit starts. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed and which move with sales for a custom protein bar startup?

Cost classification

Break-even only works when the model separates per-bar spend from monthly burn. Materials and fees move with units or revenue, while rent and licenses set the fixed hurdle; wages step up as volume rises.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw ingredients	Variable	Use $0.45 to $0.48 per bar, depending on the recipe mix.	Modeling one ingredient rate for every formula.
Custom packaging	Variable	Use $0.20 to $0.22 per bar as each unit ships with its own pack.	Treating packaging as a launch-only spend.
Direct production labor	Variable	Use $0.15 to $0.16 per bar for hands-on production work tied to output.	Putting all labor into fixed payroll.
Shipping and fulfillment fees	Variable	Apply 3.0% of first-year revenue, then the lower annual rates in the model.	Using a flat monthly shipping budget.
Payment processing fees	Variable	Apply 2.0% of first-year revenue, then the lower annual rates in later years.	Forgetting card fees in contribution margin.
Production facility rent	Fixed	Use $8,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Scaling rent with bar volume too early.
Technology platform licenses	Fixed	Use $1,500 per month as recurring operating burn.	Moving software into per-order fees without support.
Wages	Semi-fixed	Hold each role steady within the year, then step staffing up as full-time equivalents rise.	Assuming payroll rises smoothly with every bar sold.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full launch cases for custom protein bars?

Scenario table

The math shifts because volume rises faster than fixed payroll, rent, and systems costs. Lean stays below coverage, base lands at break-even, and the full case starts to build a real monthly cushion.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with mix, pricing, and cost control.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$45.2k	$9.0k	$50.2k	80.1%	-$14.1k	Fixed costs are not covered yet.
Base break-even case	$63.8k	$13.6k	$50.2k	78.7%	$0.0k	Any small miss on volume or mix turns profit negative.
Full scale case	$129.6k	$24.5k	$69.0k	81.1%	$36.1k	Volume starts to cover fixed costs with room left over.

What breaks the break-even plan for custom protein bars?

Stress test

Contribution margin, the cash left after direct costs, is the real pressure point here. At the base plan, break-even sits near $638K a month, so a 15% demand drop, 5 points of margin loss, or 10% fixed-cost creep can push the business back into a loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change; the forecast mix stays the same.	$638K	$0 cushion	Very little room if sales slip.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 15% to about $542K.	$638K	$75K gap	Lower repeat orders widen the monthly loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed monthly costs rise 10% to about $553K.	$701K	$63K gap	Rent, labor, and software creep lift break-even fast.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 5 points on ingredient and shipping inflation.	$681K	$43K gap	Small cost inflation can erase the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, margin drops 5 points, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$749K	$153K gap	Demand and cost pressure together create a large loss gap.

Will custom protein bars clear break-even before you lock the lease and spend on launch?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or buy the line until the unit math still works and the order book is real. This model needs about 10,600 bars a month, an 84% contribution margin, and enough cash to absorb the Month 25 low of $354K.

1Demand run-rate10.6K bars/mo

Verify paid and repeat orders can reach this level, because the break-even case only holds if demand gets close to that monthly run-rate.

2Lease load$8K/mo

Hold off on the full facility lease until order volume is visible, since that fixed rent starts before the business has enough recurring sales.

3Unit margin84% CM

Contribution margin (CM) is what’s left after variable costs, so confirm ingredient quotes near $0.45 to $0.48 and packaging near $0.20 to $0.22 per bar.

4Staffing ramp$445K

Phase hiring against the first 90,000 bars, because Year 1 payroll is $445K and the team has to support production before growth pays back.

5Cash cushion$354K

Keep reserve cash above the Month 25 low, or the model can run short before it reaches the Month 26 breakeven point.

6Launch signalRepeat orders

Tie launch spend to repeat buying, not one-time trial sales, because the setup still needs 50 months to pay back.