Customs Brokerage Break-Even Revenue: About $102K Per Month

Fixed costs $22.0K Monthly fixed base

Contribution margin 76% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $28.9K Cover fixed base

Break-even timing Month 8 Forecast turns positive

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly revenue clears variable costs and fixed overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that pays direct costs and then fixed overhead. $ Slow month Peak month Variable expenses These are direct costs tied to filings, fees, commissions, and training. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $155,212 $199,745 revenue - $44,532 variable expenses

Margin ratio

78%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base break-even has to cover before profit starts. $ Lean overhead Scaled overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which customs brokerage expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when fixed overhead, revenue-linked fees, and staffing steps are blended together. In this model, recurring fixed overhead starts at $22,000/month before payroll and marketing.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $12,000/month in fixed overhead through the relevant planning range.	Spreading rent as a percentage of revenue.
Insurance Premiums	Fixed	Include $2,500/month as a recurring operating expense from Month 1.	Treating insurance as a one-time setup item.
Legal and Accounting Services	Fixed	Include $3,000/month in fixed overhead for compliance, filings, and accounting support.	Leaving advisory support out of break-even overhead.
Third-Party Customs Software Licensing	Variable	Model at 8.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 6.0% by Year 5.	Modeling it as flat software spend when the assumption ties it to revenue.
Government Filing and Processing Fees	Variable	Model at 5.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 3.0% by Year 5; exclude pass-through duties and taxes.	Counting client-funded duties and taxes in operating break-even math.
Sales Commissions and Incentives	Variable	Model at 8.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 6.0% by Year 5.	Putting commissions inside fixed payroll.
Licensed Customs Broker Salaries	Semi-fixed	Add capacity in staffing steps: 2.0 FTE in Year 1 to 6.0 FTE in Year 5 at $95,000 per FTE.	Treating broker labor as fully variable per clearance.
Operations Coordination and Customer Support Load	Semi-variable	Hold base support in overhead, then scale coverage as active customers and monthly billable hours rise.	Assuming service workload only changes when a new hire starts.

How does break-even shift from lean to base to full customs brokerage scale?

Scenario table

Here’s the quick math: fixed payroll and support costs rise faster than margin at first, so break-even revenue climbs from lean to full scale. Higher volume helps, but it also raises the monthly cash load.

These are planning assumptions, not guarantees; actual break-even will move with deal mix, staffing, and fee pressure.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$1,019K	$245K	$774K	76%	$0	Lean setup sits near break-even, so small misses matter.
Base Year 3 scale	$1,875K	$384K	$1,491K	79.5%	$0	Base scale improves cushion, but payroll step-ups still demand steady volume.
Full Year 5 scale	$2,584K	$439K	$2,145K	83%	$0	Full scale has the best margin, but the fixed-cost burden is the heaviest.

What breaks the break-even plan for customs brokerage?

Stress test

The plan clears break-even only with a 76% contribution margin on $1,019K of revenue against $774K of fixed cost. A 10% revenue miss or fixed-cost jump adds about $77K of annual loss; 29% variable expense adds about $51K.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$1,019K	$0 cushion	The base model clears break-even at a 76% contribution margin.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% below plan.	$1,019K	$77K gap	A small client-ramp miss turns into a meaningful annual loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% before volume scales.	$1,120K	$77K gap	Hiring or vendor adds can eat the cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 24% to 29%.	$1,090K	$51K gap	Fee discounting, software increases, or weak mix cut margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses move to 29%.	$1,199K	$201K gap	All three shocks together can push the model deep into loss.

What should you verify before you commit to office space, hiring, and platform build?

Founder checklist

Do not lock in office, hiring, or software until licensed coverage, lead flow, and cash are proven. The model hits break-even in Month 8, but you still need about $67.4K a month of fixed cost coverage and a $223K cash floor by Month 9.

1Licensed Coverage2 FTE

Keep at least 2 licensed customs brokers in place before you sell regulated work, because the model assumes 2.0 FTE in Year 1.

2SOP Coverage4 services

Map clearance, consulting, duty tax advancement, and document management into written SOPs first, so service handoffs and fees stay consistent.

3Lead Flow$120K / $800 CAC

Test the Year 1 lead engine against a $120K budget and $800 CAC, because weak pipeline volume pushes break-even out fast.

4Unit Margin76% CM

Check that Year 1 pricing and mix still leave a 76% contribution margin after software licensing, government fees, sales commissions, and training.

5Staffing Ramp8.5 hrs/customer

Only add broker FTEs after current staff can no longer handle the 8.5 billable hours per active customer each month.

6Cash Buffer$223K / $67.4K/mo

Delay office, equipment, and platform spend unless you can cover the roughly $67.4K monthly fixed load and keep the $223K minimum cash buffer through Month 9.