Data Recovery Service Break-Even: About $69k Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $28.0K/mo Fixed overhead base

Contribution margin 80% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $35.0K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 4 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs drive break-even for a data recovery service.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Monthly sales set the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise as recovery jobs grow. $ Low direct costs High direct costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $128,000 $160,000 revenue - $32,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the margin must cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which data recovery service expenses are fixed and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only if monthly overhead, job-linked costs, and hiring steps are kept separate. Keep the $415,000 launch capex out of operating break-even and use it in cash planning.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Rent (Cleanroom & Office)	Fixed	Use $10,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across jobs and hiding the true monthly hurdle.
Secure IT Infrastructure & Cybersecurity	Fixed	Use $3,000 per month as baseline overhead needed to operate securely.	Treating secure systems as optional until case volume rises.
Equipment Maintenance & Calibration	Fixed	Use $1,800 per month because the lab needs upkeep whether jobs close or not.	Leaving maintenance out, then overstating contribution margin.
Specialized Recovery Consumables	Variable	Apply 5.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 3.0% by Year 5.	Modeling consumables as fixed supplies instead of job-linked usage.
Referral Partner Commissions	Variable	Apply 8.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 6.0% by Year 5.	Counting referred sales at full margin before commission expense.
Secure Device Shipping & Handling	Variable	Apply 4.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 3.0% by Year 5.	Forgetting inbound and outbound device handling on each paid job.
Data Recovery Technician Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model salary capacity in steps: 2.0 FTE in Year 1 rising to 6.0 FTE in Year 5 at $75,000 per FTE.	Treating technician labor as fully variable by job.
Annual Marketing Budget	Semi-variable	Plan spend as a managed budget rising from $50,000 in Year 1 to $150,000 in Year 5, then test leads against CAC.	Using CAC alone and ignoring the budget ceiling.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to full capacity?

Scenario table

Break-even climbs as staffing and overhead rise, but the CM ratio, or share left after variable costs, also improves with a richer RAID and mobile mix. The source plan is staffed from launch, so a solo-operator case needs separate math.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with case mix, staffing, and close rates.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$685k	$137k	$548k	80%	$0	High risk; needs about $685k a month, or roughly 406 completed cases.
Staffed base case	$1,193k	$203k	$990k	83%	$0	Core planning case; about $1,193k a month, or roughly 476 completed cases.
Full-capacity case	$1,393k	$195k	$1,198k	86%	$0	Best cushion; about $1,393k a month, or roughly 378 completed cases.

What pushes this data recovery break-even plan off track?

Stress test

The plan breaks first on slow revenue ramp, then on higher fixed overhead or a jump in variable spend. A 10% sales miss alone leaves about a $68,000 gap, and the combined stress case lifts break-even to about $804,000.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Base case uses $685,000 revenue, 20% variable expenses, and $548,000 fixed commitments.	$685,000	$0 gap	No cushion, so launch slippage hurts fast.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue slips 10% to about $617,000.	$685,000	$68,000 gap	Rejected cases or CAC above $250 widen the loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed commitments rise 10% to about $603,000.	$754,000	$69,000 gap	Underused technicians and space raise the break-even bar.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 20% to 25% of revenue.	$731,000	$46,000 gap	Repeat imaging work and courier issues eat contribution.
Combined pressure	Variable expenses rise to 25% and fixed commitments rise 10%.	$804,000	$119,000 gap	Slower volume plus higher CAC can break the launch plan.

Can you hit break-even before you sign the cleanroom lease?

Founder checklist

Test demand, capacity, and cash before you lock the facility. If you can’t show about 41 completed first-year cases a month at a $1,690 weighted job value, the $10,000 monthly rent, the Month 5 cash trough, and the capex wave make the opening too tight.

1Lead Flow41 cases/mo

Verify that intake can support about 41 completed cases a month, or Month 4 break-even is just a model, not a real target.

2Lease Load$10K/mo

Do not sign the cleanroom lease until case flow can carry the $10,000 monthly fixed load without starving cash.

3Unit Margin8% + 4% + $250

Check that each job still clears referral commissions, shipping, and CAC before you count the case as profitable.

4Case Capacity490 hrs/case

Confirm the Year 1 team can cover the 490-hour case load across standard, expedited, RAID, and mobile work.

5Cash Cushion$622K

Keep at least $622,000 of cash through Month 5 so the buildout and ramp do not break the business early.

6Capex Phase$415K

Phase the $415,000 equipment and lab build against working capital, and delay extra hires if utilization stays weak.