Decoy Duck Carving Break-Even Analysis: $158K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $9.0K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 90.4% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $10.0K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 26 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly duck decoy sales cover wood, paint, shipping, and workshop overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use the sales total you expect each month; this drives the margin that covers fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use costs that rise with each carving, like wood, finishes, packaging, and payment fees. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $23,152 $25,083 revenue - $1,931 variable expenses

Margin ratio

92%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly overhead that stays on even when orders slow down. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales for a duck decoy carving shop?

Cost classification

If you're pricing hand-carved pieces, break-even gets shaky when materials, selling fees, wages, and workshop overhead sit in one bucket. Classify each line by behavior first, then calculate units needed to cover fixed capacity.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
High-grade Carving Wood	Variable	Use $11.00 per unit in the first year, or 1.6% of revenue, as direct material tied to each finished piece.	Putting wood into fixed shop overhead and overstating margin per unit.
Specialty Paints	Variable	Use $3.50 per unit in the first year, or 1.0% of revenue, because paint rises with production volume.	Spreading paint evenly by month instead of matching it to units produced.
Shipping Packaging	Variable	Apply 2.5% of first-year revenue from Month 1 through Month 60, then update the rate by model year.	Treating packaging as fixed even though every shipped order uses boxes, padding, and labels.
Payment Processing	Variable	Apply 1.1% of first-year revenue because card fees move with customer payments and sales volume.	Leaving processing fees below the contribution margin line and overstating break-even profit.
Workshop Rent	Fixed	Use $1,200 per month as stable workshop overhead for the relevant planning range.	Allocating rent per piece and making low-volume months look worse than they are.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Use the $250 monthly planning base, then review added power use if sanding, lighting, or dust extraction hours rise.	Treating the full utility bill as directly tied to each finished piece.
Professional Fees	Semi-fixed	Use $150 per month until bookkeeping, tax, or advisory work steps up with business scale.	Scaling fees with every sale instead of adding a step only when service needs change.
Production Wages	Fixed	Treat wages as capacity in break-even math; first-year staffing includes a $70,000 Master Carver and 0.3 FTE Apprentice Carver at a $45,000 salary rate.	Loading all wages into unit COGS and hiding whether the shop has enough volume to cover labor capacity.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to full production for this duck decoy shop?

Scenario table

Lean volume stays below break-even, base case narrows the gap, and full output clears it because revenue rises faster than variable costs. The fixed workshop and labor base is the hard part, so volume and mix matter more than price alone.

These are planning cases, not demand guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch, Year 1	$6.0k	$558	$10.3k	90.7%	-$4.8k	Still below break-even, so losses continue.
Base case, Year 2	$12.3k	$1.0k	$12.9k	91.7%	-$1.7k	Near break-even, but not there yet.
Full production, Year 3	$25.1k	$2.0k	$18.5k	92.2%	$4.7k	Above break-even, so the model has cushion.

What pressure points can break this break-even plan?

Stress test

Year 2 is close to break-even, but the cushion is thin. A 15% sales drop, a $10,000 fixed-cost bump, or a 3-point margin hit can erase it fast, especially if rework slows finished decoys.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Year 2 mix holds with no change.	$141,593	$5,607 cushion	The plan clears break-even, but only by a thin margin.
Revenue shortfall	Sales fall 15% from Year 2 revenue.	$141,593	$16,473 gap	Missed unit targets push the plan back under water.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise by $10,000 a year.	$152,498	$5,298 gap	Extra workshop and labor overhead removes the cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 3 points.	$146,381	$819 cushion	Higher shipping packaging or payment fees leave almost no room.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 15%, variable expenses rise 3 points, and fixed costs rise $10,000.	$157,655	$32,535 gap	Rework delays and weak sales can trigger a fast cash squeeze.

What should you verify before you lock in the workshop and equipment spend for this duck decoy business?

Founder checklist

Before you lease more shop space or buy equipment, confirm the model can sell 26 to 34 decoys a month at $450 to $470 with Year 1 unit costs intact. If not, the Month 26 break-even target will slip and the cash trough will get deeper.

1Monthly volume26-34/mo

Before you add rent or tools, confirm you can sell this many decoys each month, because that is the unit range that makes break-even believable.

2Buyer price$450-$470

Test this price with real buyers, because the launch only works if customers accept the planned ticket without discounting the model.

3Unit cost$19.80/unit

Keep wood, glass eyes, paints, oils, and sandpaper near $19.80 per unit so contribution margin, the cash left after variable costs, stays close to plan.

4Shop overhead$2,070/mo

Keep fixed shop costs visible at $2,070 a month before wages, since that base load has to fit inside the $118k to $158k break-even revenue band.

5Staffing ramp1.3 FTE

Hold staffing at 1.3 full-time equivalents until orders support the painter, marketing, and shipping roles, or payroll will outrun volume.

6Cash cushion$958K / $18.35K

Make sure you can absorb the $958k minimum cash trough and keep early equipment spend near the $18,350 capex plan, or Month 26 break-even can slip.