Delivery Service Break-Even Analysis: $103K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $83.8K/mo Monthly overhead base

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $102.9K/mo Target revenue level

Break-even timing Month 18 Model break-even point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs affect break-even for a delivery service.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers variable costs and then fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with each delivery month. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $80,000 $150,000 revenue - $70,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

53%

Covers fixed costs

$4,000 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which delivery service expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if $13,000/month of listed base overhead stays separate from order-linked fees like 2.5% processing and 6.0% delivery network management. Mix them together, and Month 18 break-even can look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $3,500 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying rent to order volume instead of capacity.
Software Licenses Core Platform	Fixed	Include $2,000 per month before calculating required contribution margin.	Moving core platform software into per-order expense.
Cloud Hosting Base Infrastructure	Semi-variable	Keep the $4,000 monthly base in overhead, and model usage above base as volume-linked when order spikes occur.	Assuming all hosting stays flat as traffic grows.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of revenue in the first year, declining to 2.1% in the fifth year.	Forgetting that higher average order value raises processing fees.
Delivery Network Management	Variable	Apply 6.0% of revenue in the first year, improving to 5.0% in the fifth year.	Treating driver, fuel, and dispatch activity as fully fixed.
Digital Advertising & Referral Bonuses	Variable	Apply 7.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 5.0% in the fifth year.	Counting all marketing as fixed brand spend.
Customer Service per Order	Variable	Apply 3.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 2.2% in the fifth year.	Ignoring ticket volume after repeat orders rise.
Logistics Coordinator Staffing	Semi-fixed	Include the $65,000 annual role as staffed capacity, then add headcount in steps when service areas expand.	Modeling dispatch labor as smooth per-order spend.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to base and full scale?

Scenario table

Lean launch needs about $103k a month to break even, but adding the acquisition budget lifts the planning threshold to about $139k. The model also moves from -$835k EBITDA in Year 1 to $265k in Year 2 as route density improves.

Planning estimates only; actual break-even will move with route density, order mix, and delivery costs.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$103k	$19.1k	$83.9k	81.5%	$0	Thin cushion; acquisition spend can push the planning threshold toward $139k.
Base case	$112k	$19.6k	$92.4k	82.5%	$0	This is the steadier case; repeat orders and route density have to cover the overhead.
Full utilization	$119k	$19.5k	$99.5k	83.6%	$0	Best cushion here; better delivery network management matters more at this scale.

What breaks the break-even plan for this delivery service?

Stress test

The plan is tight until route density improves. A small revenue miss, higher ad and service costs, or the Year 1 acquisition budgets can push break-even from $103,000 to about $139,000 before taxes, debt, and capex.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$103,000	$0 gap	Plan is near the edge until density builds.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue lands 10% below plan.	$103,000	$10,300 gap	A modest miss turns into fast cash burn.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly fixed overhead rises by $13,000.	$119,000	$16,000 gap	Payroll plus overhead pushes break-even higher.
Margin pressure	Digital advertising and referral bonuses rise from 7.0% to 11.0% of revenue.	$108,000	$5,000 gap	Paid growth eats the margin cushion.
Combined pressure	Year 1 seller and buyer acquisition budgets are spread evenly and revenue lands 10% below plan.	$139,000	$36,000 gap	This is the hardest cash case; Month 17 is the danger point.

Can you prove demand and dispatch economics before you lock in vehicles and fixed spend?

Founder checklist

Yes—don’t lock in vehicles, hiring, or heavy fixed spend until seller commitments, buyer demand, and order value all clear the bar. The model doesn’t reach break-even until Month 18 and cash bottoms in Month 17, so early proof matters.

1Seller CAC$250 CAC

Validate seller commitments at or below $250 CAC before you spend the Year 1 seller budget, or the route network won't fill fast enough to support break-even.

2Buyer CAC$30 CAC

Test buyer demand at or below $30 CAC before you deploy the Year 1 buyer budget, because low-cost orders are what keep volume and payback on track.

3Order Mix81.5% CM

Make sure the mix really holds at $25, $75, and $150 AOV, because that spread is what supports the 81.5% contribution margin before fixed costs.

4Repeat Rate35 / 20 / 10

Check repeat orders of 35 consumer, 20 small-business, and 10 corporate jobs, because retention cuts CAC pressure and makes the revenue base stick.

5Dispatch Team7.5 FTE

Prove dispatch can run before you hire ahead and lock insurance before launch, since the Year 1 team already totals 7.5 FTE and service misses can raise cost fast.

6Fixed Load$838K / Month 17

Keep fixed overhead under $838K until monthly revenue is near $103K, and protect cash through Month 17 because the model only breaks even in Month 18 and bottoms at -$236K.