Dialysis Patient Transportation Break-Even: Month 14 Revenue Target

Fixed costs $92.0K/mo Recurring overhead base

Contribution margin 51.6% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $178.3K/mo Revenue to cover

Break-even timing Month 14 Model profit point

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly ride revenue can cover trip-level costs and the fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the money coming in each month before costs. $ Slow start Scale run Variable expenses Use direct trip costs, checks, and payment fees that rise with each ride. $ Light load Heavy load

Money available to cover fixed costs $351,364 $382,750 revenue - $31,386 variable expenses

Margin ratio

92%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the overhead the margin has to cover every month. $ Lean base Large base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with ride volume?

Cost classification

Break-even gets cleaner when fixed overhead stays separate from ride-linked costs. In the first year, the model breaks even in Month 14, so misclassifying usage costs can make that target look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $5,000 per month in baseline overhead before ride volume.	Tying rent to rides instead of monthly capacity.
Cloud Hosting	Fixed	Include $2,000 per month as platform overhead within the current planning range.	Ignoring it because it is not tied to one trip.
Legal Compliance	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month as recurring operating overhead.	Treating compliance as a launch-only expense.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.8% of revenue in the first year, falling to 2.0% by the fifth year.	Modeling processing as fixed when sales volume drives it.
Insurance Reserves	Variable	Apply 1.5% of revenue in the first year, falling to 0.8% by the fifth year.	Leaving claim reserves out of contribution margin.
Driver Background Checks	Variable	Apply 4.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 2.0% by the fifth year.	Treating driver onboarding as fixed while coverage needs grow.
Trip Support Costs	Variable	Apply 2.5% of revenue in the first year, falling to 1.0% by the fifth year.	Treating route support and empty miles as fixed.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full route plans for dialysis patient transportation?

Scenario table

Month 14 is the model’s break-even point. Lean launch stays below it, the base case gets over it, and full utilization gives a much wider cushion as route density rises.

Planning cases only; actual results will shift with route fill, wage mix, and overhead.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch routes	$75.9k	$37.2k	$91.6k	51%	-$52.8k	Still below break-even; keep routes dense.
Base steady routes	$214.5k	$61.7k	$105.6k	71%	$47.3k	Crosses break-even; steady repeat trips cover overhead.
Full coverage routes	$382.8k	$85.4k	$115.1k	78%	$182.2k	Wide cushion; extra volume helps absorb demand swings.

What breaks the break-even plan if rides slip or costs creep up?

Stress test

Year 2 monthly revenue of $214,500 clears break-even by about $47,300, so the base case works but the cushion isn't huge. The plan gets tight when ride volume softens, fixed overhead rises, or variable costs climb from empty miles, missed rides, and driver overtime.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$167,200	$47,300 cushion	Healthy, but the buffer is only moderate.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 15% from the Year 2 run rate.	$167,200	$15,100 cushion	A smaller ride book still clears break-even, but the room is thin.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed expenses rise 10%.	$181,900	$32,600 cushion	Overhead creep cuts room to absorb slow weeks.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points.	$177,900	$36,600 cushion	Empty miles, fuel, and driver overtime can eat margin fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, variable expenses rise 5 points, and fixed expenses rise 10%.	$187,900	$5,600 gap	This is close to the break point.

Will your dialysis transport base hit break-even before you lock in leases and add drivers?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, prove the first route can hold about 1,900 ride-equivalents a month and still survive the Year 1 EBITDA loss of $634,000. Keep the Month 14 cash low of $28,000 intact while demand, rates, and route coverage line up.

1Ride demand1,900/mo

Verify recurring referral volume gets close to 1,900 ride-equivalents a month before you sign a lease or add more vehicles.

2Referral mix50/30/20

Confirm Year 1 demand really holds the 50% clinic, 30% dialysis center, and 20% hospital mix so one channel does not carry the plan.

3Trip value$64

Test the weighted trip value of $64 against signed rates so each ride can support the cost stack.

4Coverage stack$108.3K/mo

Price driver coverage, fuel, maintenance, vehicle insurance, and backup vans so fixed overhead stays near the modeled $108,300 a month.

5Cash floorMonth 14 / $28K

Protect the Month 14 cash low of $28,000, because Year 1 EBITDA is a $634,000 loss before the base case turns.

6Route ramp1 route first

Delay second-route spend until utilization proves the first route works and compliance workflows are steady.