Distillery Break-Even Analysis: About $40K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $34.4K Year 1 run-rate

Contribution margin 86.8% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $39.6K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 14 Model ramp point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test whether monthly sales cover variable costs and fixed overhead for a distillery.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that funds variable costs and fixed overhead. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Variable costs move with output and sales, like production and selling fees. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $90,090 $102,375 revenue - $12,285 variable expenses

Margin ratio

88%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Fixed costs are the monthly base you need to cover before profit. $ Lean load Heavy load

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which distillery expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed?

Cost classification

The model reaches break-even in Month 14, but that result depends on clean cost classification. Treat rent as fixed, materials and selling fees as variable, staffing as semi-fixed, and keep capex out of monthly operating break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Distillery Facility Rent	Fixed	Include $10,000 per month before calculating unit contribution.	Treating warehouse racking or storage buildout as monthly rent.
Business Insurance	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month across the planning range.	Spreading it per bottle and overstating variable burden.
Regulatory & Licensing Fees	Fixed	Include $800 per month as recurring compliance overhead.	Leaving compliance out until after break-even is calculated.
Bottle & Cork	Variable	Apply per unit sold: $1.50 whiskey, $0.50 gin, $0.50 vodka, $0.90 rum, $1.50 brandy.	Using one bottle cost across all spirits.
Sales Commissions Wholesale	Variable	Apply to revenue, starting at 3.0% in the first year and declining to 2.0% by Year 5.	Modeling commissions as fixed payroll.
Production Utilities	Semi-variable	Model as usage-linked overhead: 0.5% of whiskey revenue, 0.4% gin, 0.3% vodka, 0.4% rum, 0.5% brandy.	Treating all utilities like fixed office utilities.
Equipment Maintenance	Semi-variable	Scale with production revenue: 0.3% for whiskey and brandy, 0.2% for gin, vodka, and rum.	Booking still and condenser purchases as monthly maintenance.
Head Distiller	Semi-fixed	Include one full-time role at $90,000 annually from Month 1 through Month 60.	Reducing the role per bottle instead of adding staffing in steps.

How does break-even shift from a lean startup mix to a full-volume distillery?

Scenario table

Higher volume spreads rent and payroll over more bottles, so break-even improves faster than margin itself. The base case is the clean checkpoint for when the distillery starts to carry overhead.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with mix, pricing, and cost control.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean startup mix	$319k	$42k	$344k	86.8%	($67k)	Still short of the $396k break-even line.
Base scaled mix	$658k	$83k	$421k	87.4%	$154k	Past the $482k break-even line.
Full-volume mix	$1.024M	$123k	$476k	88.0%	$425k	Well above the $541k break-even line.

What pushes this distillery past break-even?

Stress test

At the Year 1 base, the plan still runs about a $67k monthly operating gap, so there’s no cushion yet. Slower bottle sales, added payroll before volume, and a 3-point margin drop from packaging or input pressure are the main break-even risks.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$396k	$67k gap	Base sales do not cover fixed overhead.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to $287k.	$396k	$95k gap	Slower bottle sales widen the loss fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $378k monthly.	$436k	$101k gap	Payroll or overhead added too early raises the bar.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses cut margin by 3 points to 83.8%.	$410k	$77k gap	Packaging and input cost pressure erodes cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and margin drops 3 points.	$452k	$138k gap	Sales, cost, and payroll pressure break the plan quickly.

Is this distillery ready before you sign the lease and order equipment?

Founder checklist

Do not lock in the lease or the build until the capex, cash, and break-even math all line up. This model needs $680K of launch spend, $494K of minimum cash, and break-even by Month 14, so any miss means the plan is still too early.

1Capex funded$680K

Verify the full build budget is funded before you commit, because the still, tanks, bottling line, tasting room, racking, purification, barrels, and IT total $680K before the first sale.

2Lease load$10K/mo

Test the facility rent at $10,000 a month against the fixed burn so the lease does not outrun early sales.

3Margin floor86.8% CM

Check that Year 1 pricing from $25 to $50 per bottle still leaves about 86.8% contribution after unit COGS, commissions, and card fees, because that margin funds the fixed base.

4Volume ramp11.5K units

Confirm the first-year mix can move 11,500 units and the second-year plan can reach 23,000, or the break-even path will slip.

5Payroll ramp$232.5K→$325K

Budget headcount at $232.5K in Year 1 and $325K in Year 2, and slow hires if sales do not support the step-up.

6Cash cushion$494K / M24

Hold cash through the Month 24 low point, since the model shows $494K minimum cash, and delay new hires if Month 14 break-even slips.