Distillery Break-Even Analysis: $57K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $48.8K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 85.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $57.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, direct costs, and overhead against break-even for a distillery and tasting room.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets how much margin is available to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct bottling, tax, and packaging costs rise with sales. $ Light direct Heavy direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $112,207 $130,125 revenue - $17,918 variable expenses

Margin ratio

86%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Rent, wages, and overhead must be covered each month. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which distillery and tasting room expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Get this split right before solving for break-even. Rent, salaries, and permits set the monthly hurdle; ingredients, packaging, and excise taxes move with sales, so mixing them can make Month 2 break-even look cleaner than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Rent	Fixed	Use $12,000 per month as overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Don’t tie rent to bottle volume.
Insurance	Fixed	Use $2,500 per month in the fixed monthly break-even base.	Don’t treat it as a per-sale charge.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $3,000 monthly baseline, then watch for increases as production runs grow.	Don’t assume utility spend stays flat at higher output.
Marketing and Advertising	Semi-fixed	Use $4,000 per month as planned spend unless campaigns step up by period.	Don’t make it flex daily with tasting room sales.
Professional Services	Semi-fixed	Use $1,000 per month, with possible step-ups during compliance or advisory work.	Don’t bury advisory spend in variable product margin.
Salaried production and tasting room staff	Fixed	Use about $25,000 per month in the first year: $300,000 annual salary divided by 12.	Don’t bury payroll in product COGS.
Ingredients and packaging	Variable	Apply product COGS for grains, botanicals, molasses, fruit, bottles, corks, labels, and packaging.	Don’t model bottle-level inputs as overhead.
Federal and state excise taxes	Variable	Include these in product COGS; modeled rates range from 1.9% to 2.9% of revenue by product.	Don’t mix permit renewals with excise taxes.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to base and full production?

Scenario table

The model reaches break-even in Month 2, but the cushion changes fast as payroll and fixed overhead rise. Lean launch is tight, while base and full cases add more room because revenue grows faster than fixed costs.

Planning cases only; actual sales mix, staffing, and taxes can move break-even.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$55.7k	$8.1k	$48.8k	85.5%	-$1.2k	Very close to break-even; one weak month can flip it.
Base tasting room case	$89.3k	$12.7k	$53.8k	85.8%	$22.8k	This matches the model’s Month 2 break-even and adds cushion.
Full capacity case	$130.1k	$17.9k	$57.6k	86.2%	$54.7k	Well above break-even; capacity and staffing are the main watch items.

What breaks the break-even plan for a distillery and tasting room?

Stress test

The plan is most exposed to weak tasting room traffic, higher input costs, and payroll or utility creep. A 10% sales drop, a 3-point margin hit, and 10% higher fixed costs can turn the base case into a fast monthly cash gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$571,000/month	$0 cushion	The base case has no room for misses.
Revenue shortfall	Listed bottle revenue falls 10% to about $501,000/month.	$571,000/month	$70,000 gap	Slow traffic or weak sell-through creates a quick hole.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs and payroll rise 10%.	$628,000/month	$57,000 gap	Rent, staffing, or utilities push the target up.
Margin pressure	COGS rises 3 percentage points, cutting margin to about 82.5%.	$592,000/month	$21,000 gap	Packaging waste or input inflation trims the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, COGS rises 3 points, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$625,000/month	$124,000 gap	Three misses at once can erase cash fast.

What should you verify before you sign the lease and build out this distillery?

Founder checklist

Verify the site, staffing, and cash can carry the model to the $571K monthly break-even revenue before you commit. Here’s the quick check: $12K rent, $23.8K of fixed overhead before payroll, and $1.198M of Month 1 cash all have to fit.

1Lease Load$571K/mo

Verify the site can support the model’s monthly break-even revenue before you sign, because $12K rent still has to fit inside a $23.8K fixed-cost base before payroll.

2Opening Team$300K Y1

Check that the first-year salaried team stays near $300K and that tasting room staffing is in place before you extend opening hours.

3Bottle Demand14,500 units

Confirm the first-year mix can really move 14,500 bottles across vodka, gin, whiskey, rum, and liqueur, which works out to about $55.7K of listed bottle revenue each month.

4Margin Mix85.5% CM

Check blended contribution margin on the forecast mix, since each bottle keeps about 85.5% of sales before fixed costs and fruit liqueur is the weakest line at 18.7% COGS.

5Buildout ClockMonth 8

Verify the still, tanks, bottling line, bar, and furnishings are ready by Month 8, because that is when the room and production flow can support the forecasted volume.

6Cash Reserve$1.198M / Month 2

Protect the Month 1 cash need and treat Month 2 break-even as a target, not a promise, because the $640K startup capex and early launch ramp can drain cash fast.