Downhill Mountain Bike Park Break-Even: $86K Monthly Target

Fixed costs $78.0K/mo Monthly base

Contribution margin 87.2% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $89.5K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 1 Opening month

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly revenue can cover variable costs and still pay the park's fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin left to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These rise with traffic, like rental gear, utilities, fuel, and card fees. $ Lower direct costs Higher direct costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $341,562 $377,417 revenue - $35,855 variable expenses

Margin ratio

90%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base the park must cover before profit. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which downhill bike park expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even works only if fixed overhead stays separate from costs that rise with visits, rentals, and sales. Misclassify payroll, utilities, or goods costs, and Month 1 break-even can look cleaner than cash actually feels.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Land Lease Payments	Fixed	Include $15,000 per month before calculating required visits.	Treating land access as optional.
Property Liability Insurance	Fixed	Include $12,000 per month as base overhead.	Underpricing injury exposure.
Facilities Maintenance	Semi-fixed	Start with the $8,000 monthly base, then review when trail volume steps up.	Ignoring trail wear spikes.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use $412,000 in first-year staffing, then step up roles as volume grows.	Hiring too early.
Rental Equipment Costs	Variable	Apply the 2.5 model rate to rental activity.	Treating fleet wear as fixed.
F&B Cost of Goods	Variable	Apply the 3.5 model rate to food and beverage sales.	Ignoring food margin.
Utilities Power Fuel	Semi-variable	Model the 2.0 rate with usage tied to lift or shuttle activity.	Missing lift or shuttle usage.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply the 1.5 model rate to paid transactions.	Forgetting card fees.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch case to base and full capacity?

Scenario table

Break-even gets easier as revenue scales faster than fixed overhead. The lean case is the tightest test, while the base and full cases add more cushion, though seasonality can still make monthly results uneven.

Planning cases only; seasonality can make monthly results uneven.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$158.5k	$20.4k	$78.0k	87.1%	$60.1k	Covers fixed costs, but the cushion is thin.
Base operating case	$377.4k	$45.2k	$85.1k	88.0%	$247.1k	Healthy cushion; this is the clean lender case.
Full-capacity case	$655.8k	$75.2k	$86.6k	88.5%	$493.9k	Strong cushion, so expansion risk shifts to capacity.

What breaks the break-even plan for a downhill mountain bike park?

Stress test

The Year 1 plan has about $721k of EBITDA cushion, so it can take some softening. The risk is a mix of lower traffic, higher fixed costs, and even a small margin slip, which can wipe out that cushion fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$1.075M	$827k cushion	Solid cushion, but demand still needs to hold.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue drops 10%.	$1.075M	$637k cushion	Still above break-even, but the cushion shrinks fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Insurance, staffing, or maintenance adds $100k a month.	$2.452M	$550k gap	Extra overhead wipes out the current cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable margin slips 1 point on sales.	$1.087M	$815k cushion	A small margin slip is manageable unless traffic also softens.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 10%, fixed costs rise $100k a month, and margin slips 1 point.	$2.483M	$771k gap	That mix pushes the park well past the EBITDA cushion.

What should you prove before you sign the land lease and start the build?

Founder checklist

Test the park against the opening-year math before you commit. The model shows $1.902M in Year 1 revenue, $721K in EBITDA, and a $4.689M cash trough in Month 12, so the site, staffing, and pre-sales need proof first.

1Ticket Base20,000 lift tickets

Verify the opening plan can really sell 20,000 Year 1 lift tickets, because that is the core demand proof behind the revenue model.

2Fixed Load$78.0K/mo

Lock land access only if the $15K monthly lease still fits about $78.0K a month of fixed payroll and overhead before variable costs.

3Contribution38% EBITDA

Check that the sales mix still produces about 38% EBITDA in Year 1, or $721K on $1.902M revenue, because weak food, rental, or coaching uptake cuts the cushion fast.

4Ops Coverage$412K payroll

Verify the seven core roles can cover lift operations, rentals, trail work, coaching, retail, and response needs on opening day, because Year 1 payroll already totals about $412K.

5Cash Cushion$6.275M capex

Make sure the full launch build at $6.275M still leaves room for the Month 12 cash trough of negative $4.689M, because capital goes out before the ramp pays back.

6Pre-sell$200K target

Confirm you can pre-sell part of the $200K season-pass target and support the event calendar, because opening demand has to show up before fixed costs do.